Search Results (11)

The study aims to assess future streamflow forecasts in the Godavari basin of India under climate change scenarios. The primary objective of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) was to evaluate future streamflow forecasts across different catchments in the Godavari basin, India, with an emphasis on understanding the impacts of climate change. This study employed both conceptual and machine learning models to assess how changing precipitation patterns and temperature variations influence streamflow dynamics. Seven satellite precipitation products CMORPH, Princeton Global Forcing (PGF), Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), Climate Prediction Centre (CPC), Infrared Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS), and Precipitation Estimation from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN-CDR) were evaluated in a gridded precipitation evaluation over the Godavari River basin. Results of Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation (MSWEP) had a Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), coefficient of determination (R²), and root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.806, 0.831, and 56.734 mm/mon, whereas the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission had 0.768, 0.846, and 57.413 mm, respectively. MSWEP had the highest accuracy, the lowest false alarm ratio, and the highest Peirce’s skill score (0.844, 0.571, and 0.462). Correlation and pairwise correlation attribution approaches were used to assess the input parameters, which included a two-day lag of streamflow, maximum and minimum temperatures, and several precipitation datasets (IMD, EC-Earth3, EC-Earth3-Veg, MIROC6, MRI-ESM2-0, and GFDL-ESM4). CMIP6 datasets that had been adjusted for bias were used in the modeling process. R, NSE, RMSE, and R² assessed the model’s effectiveness. RF and M5P performed well when using CMIP6 datasets as input. RF demonstrated adequate performance in testing (0.4 < NSE < 0.50 and 0.5 < R² < 0.6) and extremely good performance in training (0.75 < NSE < 1 and 0.7 < R < 1). Likewise, M5P demonstrated good performance in both training and testing (0.4 < NSE < 0.50 and 0.5 < R² < 0.6). While RF was the best performer for both datasets, Indian Meteorological Department outperformed all CMIP6 datasets in streamflow modeling. Using the Indian Meteorological Department gridded precipitation, RF’s NSE, R, R², and RMSE values during training were 0.95, 0.979, 0.937, and 30.805 m³/s. The test results were 0.681, 0.91, 0.828, and 41.237 m³/s. Additionally, the Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) model demonstrated consistent performance across both the training and assessment phases, reinforcing the reliability of machine learning approaches in climate-informed hydrological forecasting. This study underscores the significance of incorporating climate change projections into hydrological modeling to enhance water resource management and adaptation strategies in the Godavari basin and similar regions facing climate-induced hydrological shifts. Full article

The taxonomy and geographical distributions of Osteobrama species have historically posed challenges to ichthyologists, leading to uncertainties regarding their native ranges. While traditional taxonomy has proven valuable in classification, the utility of an integrated approach is restricted for this particular group due to limitations in combining information from biogeography, morphology, and genetic data. This study addresses the taxonomic puzzle arising from the recent identification of Osteobrama tikarpadaensis in the Mahanadi and Godavari Rivers, casting doubt on the actual distribution and systematics of both O. tikarpadaensis and Osteobrama vigorsii. The research reveals distinctions among specimens resembling O. vigorsii from the Krishna and Godavari riverine systems. Notably, specimens identified as O. vigorsii from the Indian Museum exhibit two pairs of barbels, while those from the Godavari River in this study are identified as O. tikarpadaensis. Inter-species genetic divergence and maximum likelihood phylogeny provide clear delineation between O. vigorsii and O. tikarpadaensis. The study suggests that O. vigorsii may be limited to the Krishna River system in southern India, while O. tikarpadaensis could potentially extend from the Mahanadi River in central India to the Godavari River in southern India. Proposed revision to morphological features for both species, accompanied by revised taxonomic keys, aim to facilitate accurate differentiation among Osteobrama congeners. The data generated by this research provide a resource for future systematic investigations into cyprinids in India and surrounding regions. Further, the genetic diversity information obtained from various riverine systems for Osteobrama species will be instrumental in guiding aquaculture practices and formulating effective conservation action plans. Full article

With increasing population and industrialization, the water quality of freshwater sources like rivers, lakes, and ponds is becoming increasingly degraded. Most of the rivers in India are becoming polluted, including the Godavari. With the construction of dams, new industries and unsustainable agricultural practices in the Godavari basin, the water characteristics are degrading spatially and temporally. The present study emphasizes the analysis of water quality parameters like temperature, pH, Dissolved Oxygen (DO), conductivity, Biological Oxygen Demand (BOD), nitrate, and faecal coliform concentration in the Godavari basin. This was achieved by analysis of data taken from the Central Pollution Control Board, India (CPCB) for 21 stations around the Godavari basin over a span of five years from 2015 to 2019. The Pearson Correlation coefficient for the water quality parameters was assessed to study the relationship among the parameters. Variation in the water quality parameter is observed from the graphs for each station for respective years. It was found that conductivity and DO, temperature and pH and DO and faecal coliform are negatively correlated. It was also observed that DO has a negative correlation with pH, BOD and faecal coliform, indicating the utilization of dissolved oxygen at higher rates due to increasing degradation of organic matter by aerobic microorganisms in the river. One-way ANOVA was applied to find out significant temporal variations and it was observed that temperature, pH, and faecal coliform level had significantly changed the overdue course of time (F(4, 115) = 2.451, p < 0.05). The obtained results from the analysis indicate that the selected water quality parameters have varied significantly spatially, whereas temporally, according to the ANOVA coefficient, only temperature, pH and faecal coliform had shown significant differences during the selected timeframe. Hence, the present study highlighted the deteriorating water quality of the Godavari River over time. Full article

Suspended sediment yield (SSY) prediction plays a crucial role in the planning of water resource management and design. Accurate sediment prediction using conventional models is very difficult due to many complex processes. We developed a fully automatic highly generalized accurate and robust artificial intelligence models for SSY prediction in Godavari River Basin, India. The genetic algorithm (GA), hybridized with an artificial neural network (ANN) (GA-ANN), is a suitable artificial intelligence model for SSY prediction. The GA is used to concurrently optimize all ANN’s parameters. The GA-ANN was developed using daily water discharge, with water level as the input data to estimate the daily SSY at Polavaram, which is the farthest gauging station in the downstream of the Godavari River Basin. The performances of the GA-ANN model were evaluated by comparing with ANN, sediment rating curve (SRC) and multiple linear regression (MLR) models. It is observed that the GA-ANN contains the highest correlation coefficient (0.927) and lowest root mean square error (0.053) along with lowest biased (0.020) values among all the comparative models. The GA-ANN model is the most suitable substitute over traditional models for SSY prediction. The hybrid GA-ANN can be recommended for estimating the SSY due to comparatively superior performance and simplicity of applications. Full article

This study aims to evaluate the climate- and human-induced impacts on two contrasting river basins in India, specifically, the Ganges and the Godavari. Monthly discharge simulations from global hydrological models (GHMs), run with and without human influence using CMIP5 projections under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project, are utilized to address the scientific questions related to the quantification of the future impacts of climate change and the historical impacts of human activities on these river basins. The five state-of-the-art GHMs were considered and subsequently used to evaluate the human and climate change impacts on river discharges (seasonal mean discharge and extreme flows) during the pre-monsoon, monsoon, and post-monsoon seasons under the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Results showed that human impacts during the baseline period on long-term seasonal discharge in the Ganges and Godavari River basins for the pre-monsoon season are around 40% and 23%, respectively, and these impacts are stronger than the future climate change impact in the pre-monsoon season for the Ganges basin, whereas, for the Godavari basin, the same pattern is observed with some exceptions. The human impact in the course of the historical period on the pre-monsoon flows of both the Ganges and the Godavari are more significant than on the monsoon and post-monsoon flows. In the near future (2010–39) time slice, the impact of climate change on the streamflow of the Ganges is highest for the post-monsoon season (13.4%) under RCP 8.5 as compared to other seasons. For Godavari, in the near-future period, this impact is highest for the pre-monsoon season (18.2%) under RCP 2.6. Climate-induced changes in both of the basins during both the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons is observed to have a higher impact on future flows than direct human impact-induced changes to flow during the current period. High flows (31.4% and 19.9%) and low flows (51.2% and 36.8%) gain greater influence due to anthropogenic actions in the time of the pre-monsoon season compared to other times of year for the Ganges and Godavari basins, respectively. High flows for the Ganges during the near future time slice are most affected in the monsoon season (15.8%) under RCP 8.5 and, in the case of the Godavari, in the pre-monsoon season (18.4%) under the RCP 2.6 scenario. Low flows of the Ganges during the near-future period are most affected during the monsoon season (22.3%) and for the Godavari, low flows are affected most for the post-monsoon season (22.1%) under RCP 2.6. Uncertainty in the streamflow estimates is more pronounced for the Godavari basin compared to the Ganges basin. The findings of this study enhance our understanding of the natural and human-influenced flow regimes in these river basins, which helps the formation of future strategies, especially for inter-state and transboundary river management. Full article

One of the challenges in rainfall-runoff modeling is the identification of an appropriate model spatial resolution that allows streamflow estimation at customized locations of the river basin. In lumped modeling, spatial resolution is not an issue as spatial variability is not accounted for, whereas in distributed modeling grid or cell resolution can be related to spatial resolution but its application is limited because of its large data requirements. Streamflow estimation at the data-poor customized locations is not possible in lumped modeling, whereas it is challenging in distributed modeling. In this context, semi-distributed modeling offers a solution including model resolution and estimation of streamflow at customized locations of a river basins with less data requirements. In this study, the Hydrologic Engineering Center-Hydrologic Modeling System (HEC-HMS) model is employed in semi-distribution mode on river basins of six different spatial resolutions. The model was calibrated and validated for fifteen and three selected flood events, respectively, of three types, i.e., single peak (SP), double peak (DP)- and multiple peaks (MP) at six different spatial resolution of the Sabari River Basin (SRB), a sub-basin of the Godavari basin, India. Calibrated parameters were analyzed to understand hydrologic parameter variability in the context of spatial resolution and flood event aspects. Streamflow hydrographs were developed, and various verification metrics and model scores were calculated for reference- and calibration- scenarios. During the calibration phase, the median of correlation coefficient and NSE for all 15 events of all six configurations was 0.90 and 0.69, respectively. The estimated streamflow hydrographs from six configurations suggest the model’s ability to simulate the processes efficiently. Parameters obtained from the calibration phase were used to generate an ensemble of streamflow at multiple locations including basin outlet as part of the validation. The estimated ensemble of streamflows appeared to be realistic, and both single-valued and ensemble verification metrics indicated the model’s good performance. The results suggested better performance of lumped modeling followed by the semi-distributed modeling with a finer spatial resolution. Thus, the study demonstrates a method that can be applied for real-time streamflow forecast at interior locations of a basin, which are not necessarily data rich. Full article

Traditional drought monitoring is based on observed data from both meteorological and hydrological stations. Due to the scarcity of station observation data, it is difficult to obtain accurate drought distribution characteristics, and also tedious to replicate the large-scale information of drought. Thus, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data are utilized in monitoring and characterizing regional droughts where ground station data is limited. In this study, we analyzed and assessed the drought characteristics utilizing the GRACE Groundwater Drought Index (GGDI) over four major river basins in India during the period of 2003–2016. The spatial distribution, temporal evolution of drought, and trend characteristics were analyzed using GGDI. Then, the relationship between GGDI and climate factors were evaluated by the method of wavelet coherence. The results indicate the following points: GRACE’s quantitative results were consistent and robust for drought assessment; out of the four basins, severe drought was noticed in the Cauvery river basin between 2012 and 2015, with severity of −27 and duration of 42 months; other than Godavari river basin, the remaining three basins displayed significant negative trends at monthly and seasonal scales; the wavelet coherence method revealed that climate factors had a substantial effect on GGDI, and the impact of Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) on drought was significantly high, followed by Sea Surface Temperature (SST) Index (namely, NINO3.4) and Multivariate El Niño–Southern Oscillation Index (MEI) in all the basins. This study provides reliable and robust quantitative result of GRACE water storage variations that shares new insights for further drought investigation. Full article

Most flood inundation models do not come with an uncertainty analysis component chiefly because of the complexity associated with model calibration. Additionally, the fact that the models are both data- and compute-intensive, and since uncertainty results from multiple sources, adds another layer of complexity for model use. In the present study, flood inundation modeling was performed in the Godavari River Basin using the Hydrologic Engineering Center—River Analysis System 2D (HEC-RAS 2D) model. The model simulations were generated for six different scenarios that resulted from combinations of different geometric, hydraulic and hydrologic conditions. Thus, the resulted simulations account for multiple sources of uncertainty. The SRTM-30 m and MERIT-90 m Digital elevation Model (DEM), two sets of Manning’s roughness coefficient (Manning’s n) and observed and estimated boundary conditions, were used to reflect geometric, hydraulic and hydrologic uncertainties, respectively. The HEC-RAS 2D model ran in an unsteady state mode for the abovementioned six scenarios for the selected three flood events that were observed in three different years, i.e., 1986, 2005 and 2015. The water surface elevation (H) was compared in all scenarios as well as with the observed values at selected locations. In addition, ‘H’ values were analyzed for two different structures of the computational model. The average correlation coefficient (r) between the observed and simulated H values is greater than 0.85, and the highest r, i.e., 0.95, was observed for the combination of MERIT-90 m DEM and optimized (obtained via trial and error) Manning’s n. The analysis shows uncertainty in the river geometry information, and the results highlight the varying role of geometric, hydraulic and hydrologic conditions in the water surface elevation estimates. In addition to the role of the abovementioned, the study recommends a systematic model calibration and river junction modeling to understand the hydrodynamics upstream and downstream of the junction. Full article

Near-real-time (NRT) satellite-based rainfall estimates (SREs) are a viable option for flood/drought monitoring. However, SREs have often been associated with complex and nonlinear errors. One way to enhance the quality of SREs is to use soil moisture information. Few studies have indicated that soil moisture information can be used to improve the quality of SREs. Nowadays, satellite-based soil moisture products are becoming available at desired spatial and temporal resolutions on an NRT basis. Hence, this study proposes an integrated approach to improve NRT SRE accuracy by combining it with NRT soil moisture through a nonlinear support vector machine-based regression (SVR) model. To test this novel approach, Ashti catchment, a sub-basin of Godavari river basin, India, is chosen. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-based NRT SRE 3B42RT and Advanced Scatterometer-derived NRT soil moisture are considered in the present study. The performance of the 3B42RT and the corrected product are assessed using different statistical measures such as correlation coefficient (CC), bias, and root mean square error (RMSE), for the monsoon seasons of 2012–2015. A detailed spatial analysis of these measures and their variability across different rainfall intensity classes are also presented. Overall, the results revealed significant improvement in the corrected product compared to 3B42RT (except CC) across the catchment. Particularly, for light and moderate rainfall classes, the corrected product showed the highest improvement (except CC). On the other hand, the corrected product showed limited performance for the heavy rainfall class. These results demonstrate that the proposed approach has potential to enhance the quality of NRT SRE through the use of NRT satellite-based soil moisture estimates. Full article

Hydrological modeling and the hydrological response to land-use/land-cover changes induced by human activities have gained enormous research interest over the last few decades. The study presented here analyzes the spatial and qualitative changes in the rainfall–runoff that have resulted from the land-cover changes between 1985–2014 in the Godavari River Basin using the Hydrologic Engineering Centre-Hydrologic Modeling System(HEC-HMS) model and remote sensing—GIS (geographic information system) techniques. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the dynamics of land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes for the years 1985, 1995, 2005, and 2014 for the Godavari Basin. The findings reveal an increase of 0.64% of built-up land, a decrease of 0.92% in shrubland, and an increase of 0.56% in waterbodies between 1985–2014. The LULC change detection results between the years 1985–2014 indicated a drastic change in the cropland, forest, built-up land, and water bodies among all of the other classes. The urbanization and agricultural activities are the major reasons for the increase of cropland, built-up land, and water bodies, at the expense of decreases in shrubland and forest. The study had an overall classification accuracy of 92% and an overall Kappa coefficient of 0.9. The HEC-HMS model is used to simulate the hydrology of the Godavari Basin. The analyses carried out were mainly focussed on the impact of LULC changes on the streamflow pattern. The surface runoff was simulated for the year 2014 to quantify the changes that have taken place due to changes in LULC. The observed and the simulated peak streamflow was found to be the same i.e., 56,780 m³/s on 9 September 2014. In the validation part, the linear regression method was used to correlate the observed and simulated streamflow data at the prominent gauge station of the Badrachalam outlet for the Godavari River Basin and give a correlation coefficient value of 0.83. It was found that the HEC-HMS model is compatible and works better for the rainfall–runoff modeling, as it takes into account the various parameters that are influencing the process. The hydrological modeling that was carried out using the HEC-HMS model has brought out the significant impact of LULCC on rainfall–runoff at the Pranhita sub-basinscale, indicating the model’s ability to successfully accommodate all of the environmental and landscape variables. The study indicates that deforestation at the cost of urbanization and cropland expansions leads to decreases in the overall evapotranspiration (ET) and infiltration, with an increase in runoff. The results of the study show that the integration of remote sensing, GIS, and the hydrological model (HEC-HMS) can solve hydrological problems in a river basin. Full article

This work presents the application of the multi-temporal approach of the Model Conditional Processor (MCP-MT) for predictive uncertainty (PU) estimation in the Godavari River basin, India. MCP-MT is developed for making probabilistic Bayesian decision. It is the most appropriate approach if the uncertainty of future outcomes is to be considered. It yields the best predictive density of future events and allows determining the probability that a critical warning threshold may be exceeded within a given forecast time. In Bayesian decision-making, the predictive density represents the best available knowledge on a future event to address a rational decision-making process. MCP-MT has already been tested for case studies selected in Italian river basins, showing evidence of improvement of the effectiveness of operative real-time flood forecasting systems. The application of MCP-MT for two river reaches selected in the Godavari River basin, India, is here presented and discussed by considering the stage forecasts provided by a deterministic model, STAFOM-RCM, and hourly dataset based on seven monsoon seasons in the period 2001–2010. The results show that the PU estimate is useful for finding the exceedance probability for a given hydrometric threshold as function of the forecast time up to 24 h, demonstrating the potential usefulness for supporting real-time decision-making. Moreover, the expected value provided by MCP-MT yields better results than the deterministic model predictions, with higher Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients and lower error on stage forecasts, both in term of mean error and standard deviation and root mean square error. Full article