Search Results (16)

This paper describes and implements a time-spatial correction of the regional prediction wave system, compared with altimeter data, by using an ensemble Kalman filter. The technique is successful in areas with substantial wave height around the Azores islands. Using winds from ERA5 and wave spectral boundary conditions from a prior study, the SWAN wave model generates wave conditions in the Azores area for 6 years. The time-spatial correction model is determined by comparing the hindcast data with the data from seven altimetry satellites: ERS-1, ERS-2, ENVISAT, TOPEX/POSEIDON, Jason-1, Jason 2, and GEOSAT Follow ON. The hindcast results are then corrected with the correction model. Furthermore, in situ buoy measurements are then employed to validate the corrected hindcast data. The outcomes demonstrate a significant improvement in the wave predictions. Full article

Typhoons cause significant losses and pose substantial threats every year, with an increasing trend observed in recent years. This study evaluates significant wave height (SWH) hindcasts for typhoons affecting Taiwan using optimized wind field configurations within the SCHISM-WWM-III coupled model. To enhance typhoon-induced SWH simulations, the blended wind field integrates ERA5 reanalysis wind data with the modified Rankine vortex wind model. Key parameters, including the parametric wind field start time, best track data, and the radius of maximum wind speed, were carefully selected based on analyses of typhoons Meranti and Megi in 2016. Validation metrics such as the skill core, HH indicator, maximum SWH difference, and peak time difference of the SWH indicate that the optimized setup improves the accuracy of simulation. The findings highlight the effectiveness of the adjusted blended wind field, the high-resolution best track data provided by Taiwan, and the maximum wind speed radius in significantly enhancing the accuracy of typhoon wave modeling for the waters surrounding Taiwan. Full article

The purpose of our work was to assess the feasibility of hindcasting waves using WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) in a typhoon by assembling winds from multiple remote-sensed products. During the typhoon season in 2021–2022, the swath wind products in the Western Pacific Ocean were collected from scatterometers and radiometers. Cyclonic winds with a spatial resolution of 0.125° at intervals of 6 h were obtained by assembling the remote-sensed winds from those satellites. The maximum wind speeds, V_max, were verified using the reanalysis data from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), yielding a root-mean-squared error (RMSE) of 4.79 m/s and a scatter index (SI) value of 0.2. The simulated wave spectrum was compared with the measurements from Surface Waves Investigation and Monitoring (SWIM) carried out on the Chinese–French Oceanography Satellite (CFOSAT), yielding a correlation coefficient (Cor) of 0.80, squared error (Err) of 0.49, RMSE of significant wave height (SWH) of 0.48 m with an SI of 0.25, and an RMSE of the peak wave period (PWP) of 0.95 s with an SI of 0.10. The bias of wave (WW3 minus European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWFs) reanalysis (ERA-5)) concerning the bias of wind (assembling minus ERA-5) showed that the WW3-simulated SWH with the assembling wind forcing was significantly higher than that with the ERA-5 wind forcing. Moreover, the bias of SWH gradually increased with an increasing bias of wind speed; i.e., the bias of SWH increased up to 4 m as the bias of wind speed reached 30 m/s. It was concluded that the assembling wind from multiple scatterometers and radiometers is a promising source for wave simulations via WW3 in typhoons. Full article

The study used the SCHISM ocean model combined with the WWM III wind wave model to quantify the interaction between wind waves and tides in the coastal zone of the Changjiang River Estuary and its adjacent areas. The wave and storm surge during Typhoon Ampil, which made landfall in July 2018 in Shanghai, were simulated by using the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2) and Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) latest reanalysis (ERA5) wind dataset from 1 July to 31 July. Model results with CFSv2 forcing show better performance in terms of significant wave height and storm surge than those with ERA5 forcing. To investigate the interactions between waves, water levels, currents, and their combined effects on significant wave and surge variations, six numerical sensitivity experiments were designed according to the different coupling methods between SCHISM and WWMIII. The research shows that in coastal areas with water depths of less than 10 m, waves are affected by water levels and currents. The differences in the effect on significant wave height between wave-tide coupling and one-way coupling with water levels and currents are negligible. Wave setup is an important physical term which cannot be ignored during the variations of storm surge caused by Typhoon Ampil. The contributions of wave set up were concentrated in coastal areas with water depths less than 10 m. The peak wave setup occurred in the Changjiang River Estuary, reaching 0.15 m. In Xiangshan Bay and Sanmen Bay, wave radiation stress makes the proportion of wave setup to the total surge reached more than 30%. The consideration of wave-tide interaction can effectively improve the accuracy of numerical wave and storm surge simulations, which can provide more accurate hindcasts of wave and storm surge variations in the Changjiang River Estuary and its adjacent coastal areas. Full article

The purpose of our work is to investigate the performance of fusion wind from multiple remote-sensed data in forcing numeric wave models, and the experiment is described herein. In this study, 0.125° gridded wind fields at 12 h intervals were fused by using swath products from an advanced scatterometer (ASCAT) (a Haiyang-2B (HY-2B) scatterometer) and a spaceborne polarimetric microwave radiometer (WindSAT) during the period November 2019 to October 2020. The daily average wind speeds were compared with observations from National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), yielding a 1.66 m/s root mean squared error (RMSE) with a 0.81 correlation (COR). This suggests that fusion wind was reliable for our work. The fusion winds were used for hindcasting sea surface waves by using two third-generation numeric wave models, denoted as WAVEWATCH-III (WW3) and Simulation Wave Nearshore (SWAN). The WW3-simulated waves in the North Pacific Ocean and the SWAN-simulated waves in the Gulf of Mexico were validated against the measurements from the NDBC buoys and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) reanalysis (ERA-5) for the period June−September 2020. The analysis of significant wave heights (SWHs) up to 9 m yielded a < 0.5 m RMSE with a > 0.8 COR for the WW3 and SWAN models. Therefore, it was believed that the accuracy of the simulation using the two numeric models was comparable with that forced by a numeric atmospheric model. An error analysis was systematically conducted by comparing the modeled WW3-simulated SWHs with the monthly average products from the HY-2B and a Jason-3 altimeter over global seas. The seasonal analysis showed that the differences in the SWHs (i.e., altimeter minus the WW3) were within ±1.5 m in March and June; however, the difference was quite significant in December. It was concluded that remote-sensed fusion wind can serve as a driving force for hindcasting waves using numeric wave models. Full article

Numerical wave models are critical in hindcasting reliable long-term time series of significant wave heights, which play a crucial role in coastal and ocean engineering activities. Although wind fields are an important input to numerical wave models, few studies have investigated the feasibility of the widely used ERA5 wind reanalysis dataset in fetch-limited basins. In this work, we investigated the feasibility of the ERA5 forced numerical wave model (SWAN) in fetch-limited basins. ERA5 wind velocities were first compared to ground-based meteorological stations, showing poorer accuracy compared to finer gridded ALADIN wind data. Subsequently, the white-capping coefficient C_ds in the Janssen white-capping formulation was calibrated separately using a surrogate model when establishing the ERA5 and ALADIN forced wave models. The calibrated ERA5 forced model showed a similar agreement to wave buoy data as the calibrated ALADIN forced wave model during the calibration period and even superior accuracy in the validation period. Overall, these results show that the wave model calibration procedure mitigates the effect of the poorer accuracy of the ERA5 wind data on the significant wave height results. Nevertheless, both ERA5 and ALADIN forced wave models showed an alarming overprediction for high simulated significant wave heights. Full article

Climate change can give rise to significant changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme events. In the present study, extreme wave events off the central-eastern coast of the Red Sea, near the city of Jeddah, were investigated using a 39-year wave hindcast generated using WaveWatch III configured at a 3.3 km resolution forced with ERA5 reanalysis winds. The validated model outputs were used to derive the annual and seasonal climatology for the region at a few selected locations off the Jeddah coast. The study revealed robust temporal and spatial variability in the region, considering the influence of both northern and southern Red Sea waves that meet at the convergent zone. Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD) and Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) were two models used for the estimation of extreme wave analysis in the study region. The extreme significant wave heights were estimated for 10, 25, 50, and 100-year return periods. For offshore locations, the estimated return periods using the GPD method were 3.27, 3.44, and 3.38 m, respectively. GPD with the POT method was the more suitable approach, as it produced reduced bias and RMSE. At all locations, linear trends show an increase during the summer, winter, and pre-summer periods. No significant increase in the Hs trend was observed at the selected locations near and off the coast. However, the decrease in trend observed at all locations during the pre-winter period was noticeable for the 99th percentile Hs. Full article

A detailed climatology of ocean wind waves in the South Atlantic Ocean, based on ERA-5 reanalysis and in a higher-resolution wave hindcast (ERA-5H), both developed by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, is presented. The higher resolution of the wave fields in the ERA-5H (22 km) allowed for a better description of the wind sea and swell features compared to previous global and regional studies along the Brazilian coast. Overall, it is shown that swell waves are more prevalent and carry more energy in the offshore area of the study area, while wind sea waves dominate the nearshore regions, especially along the northern coast of Brazil. The influence of different climate indices on the significant wave heights patterns is also presented, with two behavioral groups showing opposite correlations to the North Atlantic Oscillation and Southern Annular Mode than to the Southern Oscillation Index. The analysis of the decadal trends of wind sea and swell heights during the ERA-5H period (1979–2020) shows that the long-term trends of the total significant wave height in the South Atlantic Ocean are mostly due to swell events and the wave propagation effect from Southern Ocean storms. Full article

Sea surface wind plays an essential role in the simulating and predicting ocean phenomena. However, it is difficult to obtain accurate data with uniform spatiotemporal scale. A high-resolution (10 km) sea surface wind hindcast around the Korean Peninsula (KP) is presented using the weather research and forecasting model focusing on wind speed. The hindcast data for 39 years (1979–2017) are obtained by performing a three-dimensional variational analysis data assimilation, using ERA-Interim as initial and boundary conditions. To evaluate the added value of the hindcasts, the ASCAT-L2 satellite-based gridded data (DASCAT) is employed and regarded as “True” during 2008–2017. Hindcast and DASCAT data are verified using buoy observations from 1997–2017. The added value of the hindcast compared to ERA-Interim is evaluated using a modified Brier skill score method and analyzed for seasonality and wind intensity. Hindcast data primarily adds value to the coastal areas of the KP, particularly over the Yellow Sea in the summer, the East Sea in the winter, and the Korean Strait in all seasons. In case of strong winds (10–25 m·s⁻¹), the hindcast performed better in the East Sea area. The estimation of extreme wind speeds is performed based on the added value and 50-year and 100-year return periods are estimated using a Weibull distribution. The results of this study can provide a reference dataset for climate perspective storm surge and wave simulation studies. Full article

Hindcasted wind and wave data, available on a coarse resolution global grid (Copernicus ERA5 dataset), are downscaled by means of the numerical model SWAN (simulating waves in the nearshore) to produce time series of wave conditions at a high resolution along the Italian coasts in the central Tyrrhenian Sea. In order to achieve the proper spatial resolution along the coast, the finite element version of the model is used. Wave data time series at the ERA5 grid are used to specify boundary conditions for the wave model at the offshore sides of the computational domain. The wind field is fed to the model to account for local wave generation. The modeled sea states are compared against the multiple wave records available in the area, in order to calibrate and validate the model. The model results are in quite good agreement with direct measurements, both in terms of wave climate and wave extremes. The results show that using the present modeling chain, it is possible to build a reliable nearshore wave parameters database with high space resolution. Such a database, once prepared for coastal areas, possibly at the national level, can be of high value for many engineering activities related to coastal area management, and can be useful to provide fundamental information for the development of operational coastal services. Full article

A 29-year wind/wave hindcast is produced over the Mediterranean Sea for the period 1990–2018. The dataset is obtained by downscaling the ERA5 global atmospheric reanalyses, which provide the initial and boundary conditions for a numerical chain based on limited-area weather and wave models: the BOLAM, MOLOCH and WaveWatch III (WW3) models. In the WW3 computational domain, an unstructured mesh is used. The variable resolutions reach up to 500 m along the coasts of the Ligurian and Tyrrhenian seas (Italy), the main objects of the study. The wind/wave hindcast is validated using observations from coastal weather stations and buoys. The wind validation provides velocity correlations between 0.45 and 0.76, while significant wave height correlations are much higher—between 0.89 and 0.96. The results are also compared to the original low-resolution ERA5 dataset, based on assimilated models. The comparison shows that the downscaling improves the hindcast reliability, particularly in the coastal regions, and especially with regard to wind and wave directions. Full article

The Southern Brazilian Coast is highly susceptible to storm surges that often lead to coastal flooding and erosive processes, significantly impacting coastal communities. In addition, climate change is expected to result in expressive increases in wave heights due to more intense and frequent storms, which, in conjunction with sea-level rise (SLR), has the potential to exacerbate the impact of storm surges on coastal communities. The ability to predict and simulate such events provides a powerful tool for coastal risk reduction and adaptation. In this context, this study aims to investigate how accurately storm surge events can be simulated in the Southwest Atlantic Ocean employing the coupled ADCIRC+SWAN hydrodynamic and phase-averaged wave numerical modeling framework given the significant data scarcity constraints of the region. The model’s total water level (TWL) and significant wave height (Hs) outputs, driven by different sources of meteorological forcing, i.e., the Fifth Generation of ECMWF Atmospheric Reanalysis (ERA 5), the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), and the Global Forecast System (GFS), were validated for three recent storm events that affected the coast (2016, 2017, and 2019). In order to assess the potentially increasing storm surge impacts due to sea-level rise, a case study was implemented to locally evaluate the modeling approach using the most accurate model setup for two 2100 SLR projections (RCP 4.5 and 8.5). Despite a TWL underestimation in all sets of simulations, the CFSv2 model stood out as the most consistent meteorological forcing for the hindcasting of the storm surge and waves in the numerical model, with an RMSE range varying from 0.19 m to 0.37 m, and an RMSE of 0.56 m for Hs during the most significant event. ERA5 was highlighted as the second most accurate meteorological forcing, while adequately simulating the peak timings. The SLR study case demonstrated a possible increase of up to 82% in the TWL during the same event. Despite the limitations imposed by the lack of continuous and densely distributed observational data, as well as up to date topobathymetric datasets, the proposed framework was capable of expanding TWL and Hs information, previously available for a handful of gauge stations, to a spatially distributed and temporally unlimited scale. This more comprehensive understanding of such extreme events represents valuable knowledge for the potential implementation of more adequate coastal management and engineering practices for the Brazilian coastal zone, especially under changing climate conditions. Full article

Radar altimeters have been measuring ocean significant wave height for more than three decades, with their data used to record the severity of storms, the mixing of surface waters and the potential threats to offshore structures and low-lying land, and to improve operational wave forecasting. Understanding climate change and long-term planning for enhanced storm and flooding hazards are imposing more stringent requirements on the robustness, precision, and accuracy of the estimates than have hitherto been needed. Taking advantage of novel retracking algorithms, particularly developed for the coastal zone, the present work aims at establishing an objective baseline processing chain for wave height retrieval that can be adapted to all satellite missions. In order to determine the best performing retracking algorithm for both Low Resolution Mode and Delay-Doppler altimetry, an objective assessment is conducted in the framework of the European Space Agency Sea State Climate Change Initiative project. All algorithms process the same Level-1 input dataset covering a time-period of up to two years. As a reference for validation, an ERA5-based hindcast wave model as well as an in-situ buoy dataset from the Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service In Situ Thematic Centre database are used. Five different metrics are evaluated: percentage and types of outliers, level of measurement noise, wave spectral variability, comparison against wave models, and comparison against in-situ data. The metrics are evaluated as a function of the distance to the nearest coast and the sea state. The results of the assessment show that all novel retracking algorithms perform better in the majority of the metrics than the baseline algorithms currently used for operational generation of the products. Nevertheless, the performance of the retrackers strongly differ depending on the coastal proximity and the sea state. Some retrackers show high correlations with the wave models and in-situ data but significantly under- or overestimate large-scale spectral variability. We propose a weighting scheme to select the most suitable retrackers for the Sea State Climate Change Initiative programme. Full article

Wave climate change by the end of the 21st century (2075–2100) was investigated using a regional wave climate projection under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The performance of the historical run (1980–2005) in representing the present wave climate was assessed when compared with in situ (e.g., GTS) and remote sensing (i.e., Jason-1) observations and wave hindcasts (e.g., ERA5-hindcast). Compared with significant wave height observations in different subdomains, errors on the order of 20–30% were observed. A Principal Component (PC) analysis showed that the temporal leading modes obtained from in situ data were well correlated (0.9) with those from the historical run. Despite systematic differences (10%), the general features of the present wave climate were captured by the historical run. In the future climate projection, with respect to the historical run, similar wave climate change patterns were observed when considering both the mean and severe wave conditions, which were generally larger during summer. The range of variation in the projected extremes (±10%) was consistent with those observed in previous studies both at the global and regional spatial scales. The most interesting feature was the projected increase in extreme wind speed, surface Stokes drift speed and significant wave height in the Northeast Atlantic. On the other hand, a decrease was observed in the North Sea and the southern part of the Baltic Sea basin, while increased extreme values occurred in the Gulf of Bothnia during winter. Full article

A Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5)-derived single-forcing, single-model, and single-scenario dynamic wind-wave climate ensemble is presented, and its historic period (1979–2005) performance in representing the present wave climate is evaluated. A single global climate model (GCM)-forcing wave climate ensemble was produced with the goal of reducing the inter GCM variability inherent in using a multi-forcing approach for the same wave model. Seven CMIP5 EC-Earth ensemble runs were used to force seven WAM wave model realizations, while future wave climate simulations, not analyzed here, were produced using a high-emission representative concentration pathway 8.5 (RCP8.5) set-up. The wave climate ensemble’s historic period was extensively compared against a set of 72 in situ wave-height observations, as well as to ERA-Interim reanalysis and Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) hindcast. The agreement between the wave climate ensemble and the in situ measurements and reanalysis of mean and extreme wave heights, mean wave periods, and mean wave directions was good, in line with previous studies or even better in some areas of the global ocean, namely in the extratropical latitudes. These results give a good degree of confidence in the ability of the ensemble to simulate a realistic climate change signal. Full article