Search Results (32)

Natural gas consumption in Europe has undergone substantial changes in recent years, driven by geopolitical tensions, economic dynamics, and the continent’s ongoing transition towards cleaner energy sources. Furthermore, as noted in the International Energy Agency’s Gas Market Report 2025, natural gas demand is becoming increasingly sensitive to fluctuations in weather patterns, including cold snaps and heatwaves. These factors make the task of forecasting future annual consumption particularly challenging from a statistical perspective and underscore the importance of accurately quantifying the uncertainty surrounding predictions. In this paper, we propose a simple yet flexible approach to issuing dynamic probabilistic forecasts based on an additive time series model. To capture long-term trends, the model incorporates a deterministic component based on the Guseo–Guidolin innovation diffusion framework. In addition, a stochastic innovation term governed by an ARIMAX process is used to describe year-over-year fluctuations, helping to account for the potential presence of variance nonstationarity over time. The proposed methodology is applied to forecast future annual consumption in six key European countries: Austria, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and the United Kingdom. Full article

Arctic Alaska is warming at twice the rate of the rest of the nation, severely impacting infrastructure built on permafrost. As winters warm, the effectiveness of thermosyphons used to stabilize foundations diminishes, increasing the risk of infrastructure failure. Because thermosyphons operate with the highest efficiency during winter cold snaps, studying the variation trends and patterns of winter cold snaps in Alaska is particularly important. To address this issue, this study analyzes the historical temperature data of four selected locations in Subarctic and Arctic Alaska, including Bethel, Fairbanks, Nome, and Utqiagvik. The winter cold snap is defined as a period when the average daily temperature drops below a specific site’s mean winter air temperature. The frequency, duration, and intensity of the winter cold snaps are computed to reveal their trends. The results indicate that the mean annual air temperature (MAAT) shows a warming trend, accompanied by sudden warming after 1975 for all study sites. The long-term average monthly air temperature also indicates that the most significant warming occurs in the winter months from December to March. While the frequencies of winter cold snaps remain relatively unchanged, the mean intensity and duration of cold snaps show a declining trend. Most importantly, the most intense cold snap during which the thermosyphons are the most effective is becoming much milder over time for all study sites. This study focuses specifically on the impact of changes in winter cold spells on thermosyphon effectiveness while acknowledging the complexity of other influencing factors, such as temperature differences, design features, coolant properties, and additional climatic parameters (e.g., wind speed, precipitation, and humidity). The data for this study were obtained from the NOAA NCEI website. The findings of this study can serve as a valuable reference for the retrofit or design of foundations and for decision making in selecting appropriate foundation stabilizing measures to ensure the long-term stability and resilience of infrastructure in permafrost regions. Moreover, the insights gained from this research on freeze–thaw dynamics, which are also relevant to black soils, align with the journal’s focus on sustainable soil utilization and infrastructure resilience. Full article

Peach is one of the most common stone fruit crops, but it is also the most thermophilic. One of the main problems in peach cultivation is frost up to −8 °C in spring during pollen development, budding, and flowering. The adaptation of the plant to low temperatures could be related to the activation of the antioxidant system under cold stress. The aim of this work was to test the hypothesis of distinct adaptation mechanisms to cold stress in Prunus persica L. cultivars with various cold tolerances. The difference between this study and the previous ones is that previously, only contrasting varieties (resistant and sensitive) were studied. For the first time, we studied the effect of cold stress on cold-resistant varieties but with different degrees of resistance, such as “Loadel” and “Springold” (medium resistant) and “Podarok Like” and “Temisovskij” (highly resistant). The experiment was designed to simulate the effects of short-term cold snaps, which are a common occurrence during February and March in the south of Crimea. A series of tests were conducted on annual shoots that were frozen at −12 °C. The activity and gene expression of two major antioxidant enzymes, catalase and peroxidase, were studied by spectrophotometry and RT-qPCR, respectively. The experiment showed that these enzymes responded differently to cold stress in varieties with different cold tolerances. Catalase responded similarly in all four varieties. After frost, there was an increase in activity (7-fold in “Temisovskij” and 3-fold in “Podarok Like”) and a decrease in expression. In contrast to catalase, peroxidase showed an opposite response to cold stress in medium-tolerant and highly tolerant cultivars. Peroxidase activity after exposure to low temperatures increased in highly tolerant cultivars (1.5-fold in “Temisovskij”), while it decreased in medium-tolerant cultivars (1.5–2 fold in “Springold” and “Loadel”, respectively). The change in peroxidase expression was the opposite. It decreased in highly resistant varieties and increased in medium-resistant varieties. Thus, our results revealed the opposite response of one of the major antioxidant enzymes (peroxidase) in moderately resistant and highly resistant cultivars. The data obtained show that varieties with a high degree of resistance could have other adaptation mechanisms involved, which may be useful for selecting resistant varieties. Full article

Coral disease outbreaks have increased in frequency and extent worldwide since the 1970s, coinciding with the rapid increase in ocean warming. Summer and winter temperature-based metrics have proven effective in predicting coral disease outbreaks in seasonal coral reef regions. However, their utility is unknown in non-seasonal coral reef areas. Here, a new methodology, independent of seasonal patterns, is developed for application in both seasonal and non-seasonal coral reef regions. Percentile-based metric thresholds were defined from seasonal equivalents in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) and tested in seasonal and non-seasonal coral reef regions of the tropical Pacific Ocean. Between new and existing methodologies, median differences of 0.00 °C (thresholds) and 0.00 °C-weeks (metrics) for Hot Snap and Cold Snap; and 0.01 °C (threshold) and −0.17 °C-weeks (metric) for Winter Condition were observed among reef pixels of the GBR. The new methodology shows strong consistency with the existing tools used for seasonal regions (e.g., R² = 0.811–0.903; GBR case studies). Comparisons of the new metrics with disease observations were constrained by the limited availability of disease data; however, the comparisons undertaken suggest predictive capability in non-seasonal regions. To establish robust correlations, further direct comparisons of the new metrics with disease data across various non-seasonal regions and timeframes are essential. With ocean warming projected to persist in the coming decades, improving the predictive tools used to assess ecological impacts is necessary to support effective coral reef management. Full article

In the winter of 2023/2024, the mass death of swans was observed on Lake Karakol on the eastern coast of the Caspian Sea. From 21 December 2023 to 25 January 2024, 1132 swan corpses (Cygnus olor, Cygnus cygnus) were collected and disposed of on the coast by veterinary services and ecologists. Biological samples were collected from 18 birds for analysis at different dates of the epizootic. It was found that the influenza outbreak was associated with a high concentration of migrating birds at Lake Karakol as a result of a sharp cold snap in the northern regions. At different dates of the epizootic, three avian influenza A/H5N1 viruses of clade 2.3.4.4.b were isolated from dead birds and identified as highly pathogenic viruses (HPAIs) based on the amino acid sequence of the hemagglutinin multi-base proteolytic cleavage site (PLREKRRRKR/G). A phylogenetic analysis showed that the viruses isolated from the swans had reassortations in the PB2, PB1, and NP genes between highly pathogenic (HP) and low-pathogenic (LP) avian influenza viruses. Avian influenza viruses A/Cygnus cygnus/Karakol lake/01/2024(H5N1) and A/Mute swan/Karakol lake/02/2024(H5N1) isolated on 10 January 2024 received PB2, PB1, and NP from LPAIV, while A/Mute swan/Mangystau/9809/2023(H5N1) isolated on 26 December 2023 received PB1 and NP from LPAIV, indicating that the H5N1 viruses in this study are new reassortants. All viruses showed amino acid substitutions in the PB2, PB1, NP, and NS1 segments, which are critical for enhanced virulence or adaptation in mammals. An analysis of the genomes of the isolated viruses showed that bird deaths during different periods of the epizootic were caused by different reassortant viruses. Kazakhstan is located at the crossroads of several migratory routes of migratory birds, and the possible participation of wild birds in the introduction of various pathogens into the regions of Kazakhstan requires further study. Full article

This paper presents experimental and theoretical studies of heat transfer through single- and double-glazed windows with electrical heating of the internal surfaces. Heating is achieved by applying a voltage to the low emissivity coating of the inner glass. A thermophysical model has been developed to simulate the heat transfer through these units, allowing us to determine their thermal characteristics. Experimental data are used to validate the numerical model. The resulting heat flux and temperature distributions on the external and internal surfaces of electrically heated double-glazed units are analysed. According to the results of experimental and numerical studies, it was found that the adopted electric heating scheme allows 83–85% of the heat to enter the room and 15–17% is removed to the outside. This makes it possible to increase the radiation component of the heat flow from the window to the room and improve the thermal comfort in the room. In general, this article shows that existing industrial windows with low-emissivity glass surface coating can be upgraded with simple and inexpensive modernisation, without compromising the main function of the window—efficient transmission of visible light—and create an additional (backup) heating device that can work effectively together with the existing heating system in the event of a sudden cold snap at low temperatures (below −20 °C), to prevent condensation of water vapour in the windows, and to prevent condensation on the surface of the window facade wall. Formally, a back-up (emergency) heating system is created in the room, which contributes to the energy sustainability of the building and therefore to energy security in general. Full article

Cold snaps during the winter present a critical challenge for Asian seabass (Lates calcarifer) in Taiwan, as sudden temperature drops significantly affect their growth and survival. This study explores the effects of dietary grape extract (GE) from Vitis vinifera on the growth performance, oxidative stress regulation, and thermal tolerance of this commercially valuable fish. Over a 60-day feeding trial, four dietary groups were tested: a control diet without GE and three diets supplemented with GE at 2% (GE20), 3% (GE30), and 4% (GE40) with commercial feed. The results demonstrated that GE supplementation positively influenced growth, with the GE20 group achieving the best weight gain and feed conversion ratio among all groups. The upregulation of the growth-related gene igf-1 in the liver of the GE20 group further supported its superior growth performance. Additionally, GE-fed groups showed increased expression of antioxidant-related genes sod1 and sod2 in the liver, while gpx1 exhibited a significant increase only in the GE20 group, indicating enhanced antioxidant defenses. Cat gene expression remained unchanged, and higher GE doses reduced the expression of gpx1, cat, and igf-1. Furthermore, GE supplementation improved cold tolerance in all treated groups compared to the control. These findings suggest that dietary GE at 20 g/kg is particularly effective in enhancing growth performance and cold tolerance in Asian seabass, offering a promising strategy for boosting fish health and adaptability in aquaculture. Full article

Global food security has been significantly affected by climate change; hence, there is a need to come up with lasting and adaptable agricultural practices. The objective of this study is to understand the relationships between climate-smart agriculture (CSA) and food loss management, as these are essential fields that influence sustainable agriculture. By conducting a detailed bibliometric and bibliographic analysis, we have mapped out the research landscape regarding the intersection of CSA and food loss; more importantly, we have concentrated on climate-smart strategies’ implementation for the reduction of losses all through the agricultural value chain. Our investigation combined results concerning types of crops that can survive extreme weather conditions like droughts caused by global warming or cold snaps from severe weather events. This work brought out core research directions, clusters, and the regional distribution of scholarly articles, giving an understanding of the present state of CSA and food loss study. Full article

In February 2023, a severe cold snap took place in Atlantic Canada and was followed by the mass loss of mussels at mid-to-high intertidal elevations on the southeastern Nova Scotia coast. This loss was concerning because mussels sustain upper trophic levels in coastal food webs and because mussel stands enhance local biodiversity by sheltering many small invertebrate species. Using photographs taken in the second summer after that cold snap (July 2024), this article provides visual evidence of active ongoing recolonization of intertidal mussels on this coast, including the incipient formation of new stands. These are encouraging signs of ecological resilience. Reaching historical values of abundance will likely depend on the future occurrence of weather extremes, which are becoming more frequent with the ongoing climate change. Full article

Climate change disrupts food production in many regions of the world. The accompanying extreme weather events, such as droughts, floods, heat waves, and cold snaps, pose threats to crops. The concentration of carbon dioxide also increases in the atmosphere. The United Nations is implementing the climate-smart agriculture initiative to ensure food security. An element of this project involves the breeding of climate-resilient crops or plant cultivars with enhanced resistance to unfavorable environmental conditions. Modern agriculture, which is currently homogeneous, needs to diversify the species and cultivars of cultivated plants. Plant breeding programs should extensively incorporate new molecular technologies, supported by the development of field phenotyping techniques. Breeders should closely cooperate with scientists from various fields of science. Full article

Many northern hemisphere countries have experienced exceptionally heavy snow, blizzards, and cold snaps in recent years, causing considerable public concern about the high crash rate and safety issues in road traffic. This study used the CarSim dynamics simulation to recreate several vehicle driving scenarios in snow and ice conditions. To explore the influence of speed, curve radius, and road adhesion coefficient on vehicle sideslip and rollover, four lateral stability evaluation indicators, namely lateral offset, lateral acceleration, yaw rate, and roll angle, are chosen. Unfavorable combinations of these factors result in vehicle deviation from their intended trajectory and dramatically increase the likelihood of sideslip and rollover incidents. In particular, road adhesion coefficients ranging from 0.10 to 0.20 lead first to sideslip, while coefficients of 0.21 to 0.35 lead straight to rollover. Additionally, in the initial segment of the curve, cars are more susceptible to lateral instability. Curve radius has the greatest influence on sideslip when the three influencing factors are combined, while speed is the key component affecting rollover incidents. Smaller curve radii and higher speeds are major factors in such incidents. The results are helpful for proper road alignment parameter selection and dynamic speed-limit measures. This can provide a theoretical basis for traffic management departments to take targeted measures, which is of great significance to improving road traffic safety in snowy and icy weather. Full article

Drought is a complex natural disaster with significant implications for agriculture, water resources, and socioeconomic development. Accurate and timely assessment of meteorological drought is crucial for effective management and mitigation strategies. Climate change has led to a rise in climatic anomalies, such as droughts, floods, heatwaves, and cold snaps, which have severe impacts on human well-being and societal patterns. Droughts, which are prolonged periods of limited or absent rainfall, pose significant challenges for sectors like agriculture, energy, and enterprises, especially in economically reliant countries with inadequate water management infrastructure. Drought indicators are essential in meteorology, agriculture, and hydrology for monitoring drought conditions. Accurate drought assessment relies on quantitative index-based comprehensive drought indices, such as India’s Aridity Anomaly Index (AAI), Deciles Index, Percent of Normal Index, Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI), and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Drought management involves analyzing risk components and using analytical tools for decision making. A decision support system includes institutional, methodological, public, and operational components. Long-term actions include demand reduction through economic incentives, while short-term actions include increasing water supply through wastewater reutilization, inter-basin water conveyance, reservoir construction, and agricultural ponds. Impact minimization is achieved through educational initiatives, reallocating water resources, early warning systems, and insurance programs. Challenges include developing technologies to integrate data sources and create unified indicators, and geospatial decision-support systems facilitate hazard mapping and strategic drought management plans. Full article

Intertidal mussel stands are common on temperate rocky seashores and host many small invertebrates, so they are important biodiversity reservoirs. Their integrity, however, is being increasingly affected by environmental extremes. An unusual cold snap in Nova Scotia (Canada) in February 2023 was followed by the mass disappearance of mussel stands at mid-to-high elevations in rocky intertidal habitats. The present article presents evidence of significant losses at middle intertidal elevations following the passage of cyclone Lee in September 2023, which created severe surf conditions. The increasing occurrence of successive environmental extremes might challenge the persistence of these important biological systems. Full article

In North Carolina, over 6000 women will be diagnosed with breast cancer yearly, and over 1000 will die. It is well known that environmental conditions contribute greatly to health outcomes, and many of these factors include a geographic component. Using death data records from 2003–2019 extracted from North Carolina Vital Statistics Dataverse, a spatial database was developed to map and analyze female breast cancer mortality rates at the ZIP code scale in North Carolina. Thirty-nine hot spots and thirty cold spots of age-adjusted death rates were identified using the Getis–Ord analysis. Two-tailed t-tests were run between each cohort for environmental socioeconomic-related factors associated with breast cancer progression and mortality. The median age and household income of individuals who resided in ZIP codes with the highest breast cancer mortality were significantly lower than those who lived in ZIP codes with lower breast cancer mortality. The poverty rate, percentage of SNAP benefits, and the percentage of minorities were all significantly higher (p < 0.05, p < 0.001, and p < 0.001) in ZIP codes with high breast cancer rates. High-quality (ZIP code) granular cancer data were developed for which detailed analysis can be performed for future studies. Full article

Extreme weather can cause ill health in older persons due to a direct thermal effect on the body’s thermoregulation and difficulties in maintaining a healthy lifestyle and accessing the health services they need. To understand experiences in relation to their exposures to extreme weather and how they responded to such weather conditions, including cold snaps, heat and air pollution in northern Thai communities, a descriptive qualitative study was conducted to uncover details and the essence of perspectives and experiences of older persons and family members. Three focus group discussions with 15 older persons and 15 family members occurred in three communities in Chiang Rai, a northern province of Thailand. Thematic analysis was performed. Experiences of older persons and families in relation to extreme weather conditions were described in five themes: local actions against weather changes, the double challenges, awareness and reactions to weather changes, protective and comfortable living environments, and mitigation of the impacts of weather conditions. Seasonal adaptability was key for older persons to stay safe and healthy during extreme weather changes. Heat, cold snaps, and air pollution made health and daily living routine maintenance among older persons challenging, especially among those with declining health. Older persons and families employed predictive and adaptive strategies to avoid and minimise extreme weather impacts and maximise their comfort and optimal living. Full article