Search Results (44)

Hyperloop ultra-high-speed transport presents a transformative opportunity for future mobility systems in smart cities. However, assessing its socio-economic impact remains challenging due to Hyperloop’s unique technological, modal, and operational characteristics. As a novel, fifth mode of transportation—distinct from both aviation and rail—Hyperloop requires tailored evaluation tools for policymakers. This study proposes a custom-designed framework to quantify its macroeconomic effects through changes in gross domestic product (GDP) at the city level. Unlike traditional economic models, the proposed approach is specifically adapted to Hyperloop’s multimodality, infrastructure, speed profile, and digital-green footprint. A Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML) model is developed and applied at two technology readiness levels (TRL-6 and TRL-9). Case studies of Glasgow, Berlin, and Busan are used to simulate impacts based on geo-spatial features and city-specific trade and accessibility indicators. Results indicate substantial GDP increases driven by factors such as expanded 60 min commute catchment zones, improved trade flows, and connectivity node density. For instance, under TRL-9 conditions, GDP uplift reaches over 260% in certain scenarios. The framework offers a scalable, reproducible tool for policymakers and urban planners to evaluate the economic potential of Hyperloop within the context of sustainable smart city development. Full article

This study investigates how Chinese ownership in European ports affects trade flows between China and Eurozone countries, set against the backdrop of recent global economic disruptions that have emphasized the crucial role of maritime trade and port efficiency. An augmented gravity model was employed, using the Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML), fixed effects (FE), and random effects (RE) estimators, to analyze trade data from 2001 to 2023. The analysis shows that, while conventional economic factors like GDP per capita and the Logistics Performance Index (LPI) consistently and significantly drive trade, Chinese port ownership surprisingly exhibits a negative or statistically insignificant impact on both Chinese exports to the EU and EU imports from China. This suggests that these acquisitions may not primarily boost overall bilateral trade but rather consolidate existing routes or serve broader strategic objectives, as evidenced by heterogeneous country-specific effects and phenomena like the “Rotterdam effect”. Ultimately, my findings underscore the paramount importance of logistical efficiency over ownership structure in facilitating trade. Full article

In this paper, the Balassa–Samuelson–Tariffi effect is revisited. This research first aims to explain that the behaviour of the real exchange rate shows structural breaks in the short term. A partial equilibrium model “á la Rogoff” is formally formulated where there are relative prices of non-tradable goods in terms of tradable goods in the supply side. Secondly, a general equilibrium model is built after a utility function is added to the partial equilibrium model. It is presented as a mathematical mechanism that shows a stationary state in the real exchange rate considering not only non-tradable goods but also tradable goods both in the domestic market and the foreign market. It is explained that any change in a currency’s price in terms of another currency in real terms is transitory in the long run, thereby disappearing after a certain period of time. In the general equilibrium model, any price’s change in non-tradable goods will be compensated by either a price’s change in tradable goods or changes in the nominal exchange rate. Therefore, this study’s main contribution is to show theoretically that the real exchange rate is constant over time in the long run. Full article

This paper presents a review of globalization by examining its main characteristics, types, and the advantages and disadvantages associated with each type with regard to people, firms, and nations. It synthesizes the literature and provides a structured analysis of the multifaceted impacts of globalization. The review combines the theoretical constructs of globalization characteristics and types, with empirical observations of the contributions and challenges of each type of globalization—based on multiple levels of an analysis—including micro, meso, and macro. Each type of globalization is analyzed to identify how it contributes to economic growth, cultural exchange, political cooperation, technological advancement, and environmental collaboration, while also presenting significant challenges, such as inequality, cultural homogenization, political dependency, digital divide, and ecological degradation. Understanding the multidimensional nature of globalization allows policymakers, business leaders, and individuals to navigate its complexities more effectively, while recognizing both the opportunities and risks. Although much of the literature examined globalization through a single lens, this paper offers an integrative and comparative perspective across the various dimensions. By categorizing the impacts into various levels according to type, it contributes to a more comprehensive and nuanced understanding of globalization. Full article

This study aims to explore the relationship between macroeconomic factors and the decision to file an anti-dumping (AD) initiation, focusing on the post-WTO period from 1995 to 2022 for both reporting and targeted countries. We analyze the 20 most frequent users of the AD mechanism and the 20 most frequently targeted countries through econometric analysis to determine how gross domestic product (GDP) volume, GDP growth rate, and merchandise trade balance (MTB) influence the frequency of AD initiations. Our findings indicate that at least half of the sampled countries exhibit a significant correlation between AD filings and at least one of the macroeconomic variables examined. In many cases, GDP volume and MTB not only affect a country’s decision to initiate an AD investigation but also influence how often it becomes a target of such measures. Although the results are fragmented across different economies, they highlight the role of the macroeconomic environment in shaping the decision to resort to AD mechanisms. By adopting a dual perspective, considering both reporting and targeted countries, and incorporating MTB as a key variable, this research extends beyond previous studies to provide deeper insights into the macroeconomic determinants of AD measures. These findings suggest that macroeconomic conditions play a crucial role in shaping trade defense policies, highlighting the need for policymakers to consider broader economic trends when formulating AD regulations. Full article

This study investigates the possible socio-economic impacts of Hyperloop technology on establishing and reshaping EU trade routes. Hyperloop—a novel ultra-high-speed transportation system—demonstrates the capability to achieve supersonic speeds to move cargo and passengers. Delivering goods in a faster and sustainable way could change the existing trade routes and offer new opportunities for the development of international trade. This research focuses on assessing how Hyperloop may influence existing EU trade routes by improving delivery times and reducing energy usage/carbon emissions (these terms will be used interchangeably throughout the paper where both reducing long-terms costs and meeting climate goals are equally impacted by this technology). Further objectives include evaluating potential new trade routes that could emerge due to Hyperloop’s capabilities. In this paper, twelve different scenarios are constructed and compared; these scenarios contain the description of current EU trade routes that could be influenced by Hyperloop and those that could be introduced given the improved delivery times and sustainable business opportunities. The gravity model is proposed and an equation is estimated using the PPML (Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood) method based on Eurostat and IMF open data. Based on the research results, different socio-economic outcomes for different layers of EU trade, including negative and positive impacts, are identified. The findings suggest that deploying Hyperloop technology would result in a 15% increase in exports and a 10% increase in imports for European trade. Both positive and negative socio-economic impacts are identified, highlighting the complexities of adopting such a disruptive technology. The research results could be used in the process of decision-making for estimating risks and performing economic analysis on various aspects of the EU trade policy. The study results could also guide EU decision-makers in assessing the main impacts of Hyperloop technology on the transportation industry, on the environment, and on society, in the context of further developing EU trade routes. Full article

The global cocoa trade network is highly concentrated. The top 5 producers account for 75 percent of exports. Although recent research shows that agricultural trade was resilient to the 2020 pandemic, cocoa is one of the most affected goods. This paper estimates the effects of international shocks, in general, and COVID-19 on the global cocoa trade. We find that the effect on the top 5 producers is less than on the small-size producers. Also, the COVID-19 pandemic increased production costs, reduced export probability, and created income volatility in small-size producers. Full article

The European Union has implemented various trade policies in the textile and clothing sector, a major global employment generator, over the past three decades. This paper investigates how these evolving policies have impacted the four largest exporters of textiles and clothing to the EU. A notable trend emerges: India’s share of the EU market has declined and China has stagnated, while Bangladesh and Vietnam have seen significant gains. Using an Augmented Gravity Model, the study examines whether this shift is a result of broader global market dynamics or specific consequences of the EU’s tariffs, non-tariff measures, and its preferential trade agreement—the Everything But Arms initiative—with Bangladesh. Drawing on New Trade Theory, the research explores the interplay between these policies and their differential impact on developed (China), developing (India and Vietnam), and least-developed (Bangladesh) countries. It highlights the strategic role of NTMs and questions whether the EU’s focus on supporting least-developed countries might unintentionally undermine trade fairness for other nations within the global textile and clothing market. The paper contributes to the ongoing policy debate on strengthening the India–EU trade relationship, particularly in the context of current discussions around the India–EU Free Trade Agreement. Full article

Passenger transportation in Japan’s main metropolitan areas is operated by the JR companies, which were privatized and divested from Japan National Railways (JNR) in 1987 and by 16 major private railway companies with large-scale operations. Although their core business is transportation, the major private railway companies have adopted a strategy of diversification, and they engage, e.g., in real estate and distribution businesses. This study examines the relationship between the degree of business diversification and the production efficiency of Japan’s major private railway companies from the perspective of a future business model. To this aim, this study applies data envelopment analysis combined with the Malmquist index to the data of the railway companies from 1987 to 2019. We focus on four phases of activities: cost, operational resource, operational output, and total revenue. This study is the first to analyze the diversified management of Japanese railroad companies by evaluating their production efficiency and its changes over time. The results of the analysis reveal that, while all companies’ earnings have generally increased, the less diversified they are, the more they struggle to optimize personnel and other overhead expenses and resources, lowering production efficiency. Full article

The impact of exchange rates is a significant concern affecting trade in the SADC region. This study’s purpose is to assess the threshold effects of exchange rates on agricultural exports from SA to SADC from 2010 to 2022. A panel threshold estimation technique is applied to assess the exchange rates effects in different regimes that can be below or above the threshold value. This can reveal non-linear relationships that are often overlooked in traditional linear models. In this analysis, exchange rates are disaggregated into appreciation and depreciation, as it is critical to determine how these changes affect agricultural exports, which has not been achieved in previous studies. The findings of this study confirm the existence of a non-linear relationship between several key variables (depreciation, South Africa’s GDP, the GDP of the SADC, and South Africa’s population and agricultural exports). This contributes new insights to the existing literature on the SADC economies. The policymakers could implement an exchange rate stabilisation mechanism and promote the diversification of both market destinations and agricultural export products. The SADC economies could consider adopting flexible exchange rate regimes that respond to market forces, while taking into account external shocks and economic indicators to mitigate the effects of depreciation shocks. Furthermore, the findings from this study can aid policymakers in formulating effective strategies for managing exchange rates fluctuations and promoting agricultural export growth. The findings show that different segments of agricultural exports can inform targeted interventions aimed at supporting exporters, and relevant industries within the SADC region. These results can aid policymakers to develop strategies to support sustainable agricultural practises, and ensure that the sector can meet the growing demands of a larger population. Full article

(1) Background: The COVID-19 pandemic severely disrupted global trade, posing challenges for regional trade agreements such as the Pacific Alliance, comprising Chile, Colombia, Mexico, and Peru. This study investigates the Pacific Alliance’s impact on trade creation and diversion during the pandemic, exploring how regional cooperation mitigated trade disruptions. (2) Methods: A quantitative approach utilizing econometric models, including ordinary least squares, Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood, and the Heckman selection model, was employed. The gravity model of trade was applied to bilateral trade data from 1948 to 2021, incorporating COVID-19-specific variables to assess trade dynamics. (3) Results: The analysis revealed significant trade creation within the Pacific Alliance during the pandemic, with intra-bloc trade strengthening despite global disruptions. However, evidence of trade diversion from non-member countries was mixed and inconclusive. (4) Conclusions: The Pacific Alliance demonstrated resilience during the COVID-19 period, fostering regional trade creation and cushioning the impact of global trade shocks. While trade diversion remains uncertain, the study highlights the critical role of regional trade agreements in stabilizing trade flows during global crises, offering valuable insights for future policy and regional cooperation strategies. Full article

Italy has long experienced a significant developmental gap between its northern and southern regions, with the latter being less developed. The 2007–2008 financial crisis accentuated this gap, leading to distinct patterns of interregional migration. This paper aims to investigate the effects of past migration flows and income inequality on interregional mobility in Italy, using a gravity model with bidirectional dyads and three different measures of inequality as dependent variables: Gini Index, Relative Poverty, and Income Ratio. Previous research has shown that living in highly unequal regions is associated with increased mistrust and anxiety about social status, contributing to unhappiness among residents. Using bilateral gross migration flows for the period 2007–2018, the study aims to control for the potential endogeneity between interregional mobility and inequality. The results indicate a positive relationship between high levels of inequality and interregional out-mobility, underscoring the need for policies aimed at reducing both horizontal and vertical inequality within and among Italian regions. Full article

This study examines the impact of exchange rate stability on the economic growth of South Africa from 2000 to 2023, a period characterised by significant political and economic changes. Exchange rate stability is critical for developing countries, affecting key macroeconomic variables such as trade balances, foreign direct investment (FDI), and inflation. For emerging economies like South Africa, maintaining a stable exchange rate can reduce uncertainty in international transactions, foster investor confidence, and support sustainable economic development. This research explores whether consistent exchange rate management has positively influenced South Africa’s economic trajectory, particularly by mitigating the adverse effects of global shocks and domestic volatility. Using the EasyData online database, which contains yearly time series data, the method of analysis adopted by the research is the ordinary least squares (OLS) regression method. The findings show that while exchange rate stability positively impacts GDP, the influence of FDI and political risk is more substantial. These results underscore the importance of fostering a stable economic environment through sound exchange rate policies, political stability, and efforts to attract foreign investments to ensure long-term economic growth. Full article

In this study, we elucidate the income redistribution effects of the proposal to incorporate the Bend Points mechanism of the U.S. OASDI into the Korean National Pension Scheme (BP-KNPS Proposal) through a micro-simulation analysis using individual data from the Korean Labor and Income Panel Study (KLIPS). In addition to examining the effects of introducing the BP-KNPS Proposal into the current National Pension Scheme (NPS), we also consider the impact of this scheme being combined with the 5th National Pension Comprehensive Plan (Draft), announced by Korea’s Ministry of Health and Welfare on 30 October 2023. When the BP-KNPS Proposal is introduced into the current NPS, the Mean Log Deviation (MLD) of the net transfer amount (lifetime pension benefits minus lifetime pension contributions) for regular employees decreases from 0.2022863 to 0.1929960. Similarly, the MLD for self-employed and irregular workers decreases from 0.2046127 to 0.1721433, indicating a reduction in income inequality. Furthermore, when the BP-KNPS Proposal is combined with the 5th National Pension Comprehensive Plan (Draft), the effects are mixed. The proposals to increase the pension contribution rate and adjust the rate increase speed via generation lead to a reduction in income inequality compared to the current NPS when combined with the BP-KNPS Proposal. However, the proposals to raise the pensionable age result in increased income inequality, similar to the outcomes under the current system. This finding suggests that the triple burden identified by literature review—the reduction in benefits due to disparities in contribution periods and life expectancy, and the raised pensionable age—has a greater impact on low-income participants than the inequality-reducing effects of the BP-KNPS Proposal. Full article

This study aims to examine the relationship between customs policy and the economic blocs of which Egypt is a member, with a focus on the theory of New Regionalism and modern trends in customs policies. Egypt joined numerous economic blocs following its accession to the world trade organization (WTO) in 1995, yet this membership has not yielded significant positive impacts on the performance of Egyptian exports or the trade balance. The study utilized panel data analysis of Egypt’s international trade from 2001 to 2023. The results indicate that, despite Egypt’s limited success in reaping the benefits of most economic blocs, largely due to the concentration of Egyptian exports in primary and agricultural products and the low tariff rates, factors such as customs clearance processes, tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers, regional trade agreements, and technology adoption still play a crucial role in influencing trade volume among member countries. The findings highlight the significance of effective customs procedures and the reduction of trade barriers in boosting trade volumes within regional trade agreements. The study proposes a strategy for Egypt’s customs policy to maximize benefits from economic blocs, focusing on four key areas: aligning customs policy planning with targeted export sectors to realize trade creation and trade diversion effects; fully implementing trade facilitation programs and liberalizing customs policy procedures; adopting a national strategy to stimulate high value-added export industries as a long-term solution; and adopting regional trade agreements that support cumulative origin as a short-term solution. Full article