Search Results (8)

A global clean energy transition is required for achieving ambitious climate goals and ensuring sustainable development. While technological advancements are crucial, they are not sufficient on their own to meet Paris Agreement (PA) climate targets. Integrating lifestyle changes, particularly in sectors such as transport and residential use of energy, into climate policies and energy modeling framework is gaining recognition in energy transition research. This study explores the impact of lifestyle changes on the global energy system and CO₂ emissions using the PROMETHEUS model, an advanced energy–economy–environment system model. In this research we present scenarios in which lifestyle changes, such as reduced private car use and increased adoption of public transport and energy-savings behavior in households, are gradually introduced and complement technological and policy measures within the energy transition framework. We explore the impacts of scenarios with different levels of climate policies and lifestyle changes to evaluate the effects of various behavioral shifts on global energy consumption and CO₂ emissions. Results show that even under current climate policies, lifestyle changes can reduce global energy demand by 5% by 2030 and 10% by 2050. When combined with ambitious decarbonization policies, the reductions are much more significant, leading to a 35% reduction by 2050 compared to the baseline scenario. Overall, the findings suggest that lifestyle changes, when effectively integrated with climate policy measures, can reduce energy demand and carbon emissions, alleviate the pressure on energy supply, and reduce the cost burden for energy producers and consumers. Full article

As the imperative to address climate change intensifies, understanding the effectiveness of policy interventions becomes paramount. In the context of addressing these urgent challenges and given the inadequacy of current policies to address this issue, this study examines the extent to which Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) and Long-Term Targets (LTTs) can contribute to achieving ambitious climate goals. Recognizing the critical need for effective climate action, we employ the advanced modelling tools PROMETHEUS and GCAM to assess the implications of different scenarios–Current Policies (CP), Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC), and combination of NDCs with Long-Term Targets (NDC_LTT)–on the future development of energy system and emission. This study, by employing these well-known models, seeks to provide an improved understanding of the impacts of NDCs on global emission trajectories and whether the integration of NDCs and LTTs can help close the gap towards Paris-compatible pathways. The study analyzes various sectors including buildings, transportation, electricity generation, and industry to provide insights into the limitations of existing policies and the potential of enhanced commitments to drive transformative changes in a global scale. The effectiveness of these policies varies across different sectors, highlighting the challenges that need to be addressed for achieving the required emission reduction targets in the medium- and long-term. Key findings indicate significant shifts in energy consumption, fuel mix, technology adoption, and emission trajectories, particularly under the synergistic action represented by the NDC_LTT scenario. Full article

The European Union faces the pressing challenge of decarbonising the buildings sector to meet its climate neutrality goal by 2050. Buildings are significant contributors to greenhouse gas emissions, primarily through energy consumption for heating and cooling. This study uses the advanced PRIMES-BuiMo model to develop state-of-the-art innovative pathways and strategies to decarbonise the EU buildings sector, providing insights into energy consumption patterns, renovation rates and equipment replacement dynamics in the EU and in two representative Member States, Sweden and Greece. The model-based analysis shows that the EU’s transition towards climate neutrality requires significant investment in energy efficiency of buildings combined with decarbonisation of the fuel mix, mostly through the uptake of electric heat pumps replacing the use of fossil fuels. The Use Case also demonstrates that targeted policy interventions considering the national context and specificities are required to ensure an efficient and sustainable transition to zero-emission buildings. The analysis of transformational strategies in Greece and Sweden provides an improved understanding of the role of country-specific characteristics on policy effectiveness so as to inform more targeted and contextually appropriate approaches to decarbonise the buildings sector across the EU. Full article

The interest in sustainability and energy efficiency is constantly increasing, and the noticeable effects of climate change and rising energy prices are fueling this development. The residential sector is one of the most energy-intensive sectors and plays an important role in shaping future energy consumption. In this context, modeling has been extensively employed to identify relative key drivers, and to evaluate the impact of different strategies to reduce energy consumption and emissions. This article presents a detailed literature review relative to modeling approaches and techniques in residential energy use, including case studies to assess and predict the energy consumption patterns of the sector. The purpose of this article is not only to review the research to date in this field, but to also identify the possible challenges and opportunities. Mobility, electrical devices, cooling and heating systems, and energy storage and energy production technologies will be the subject of the presented research. Furthermore, the energy upgrades of buildings, their energy classification, as well as the energy labels of the electric appliances will be discussed. Previous research provided valuable insights into the application of modeling techniques to address the complexities of residential energy consumption. This paper offers a thorough resource for researchers, stakeholders, and other parties interested in promoting sustainable energy practices. The information gathered can contribute to the development of effective strategies for reducing energy use, facilitating energy-efficient renovations, and helping to promote a greener and more sustainable future in the residential domain. Full article

This study provides a quantitative analysis of future energy–climate developments at the global level using two well-established integrated assessment models (IAMs), PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN. The research aims to explore the results of these IAMs and identify avenues for improvement to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement. The study focuses on the effects of varying assumptions for key model drivers, including carbon prices, technology costs, and global energy prices, within the context of stringent decarbonization policies. Diagnostic scenarios are utilized to assess the behavior of the models under varying exogenous assumptions for key drivers, aiming to verify the accuracy and reliability of the models and identify areas for optimization. The findings of this research demonstrate that both PROMETHEUS and TIAM-ECN exhibit similar responses to carbon pricing, with PROMETHEUS being more sensitive to this parameter than TIAM-ECN. The results highlight the importance of carbon pricing as an effective policy tool to drive decarbonization efforts. Additionally, the study reveals that variations in technology costs and global energy prices significantly impact the outcomes of the models. The identified sensitivities and responses of the IAMs to key model drivers offer guidance for policymakers to refine their policy decisions and develop effective strategies aligned with the objectives of the Paris Agreement. By understanding the behavior of the models under different assumptions, policymakers can make informed decisions to optimize decarbonization pathways and enhance the likelihood of meeting global climate goals. Full article

Islands face unique challenges on their journey towards achieving carbon neutrality by the mid-century, due to the lack of energy interconnections, limited domestic energy resources, extensive fossil fuel dependence, and high load variance requiring new technologies to balance demand and supply. At the same time, these challenges can be turned into a great opportunity for economic growth and the creation of jobs with non-interconnected islands having the potential to become transition frontrunners by adopting sustainable technologies and implementing innovative solutions. This paper uses an advanced energy–economy system modeling tool (IntE3-ISL) accompanied by plausible decarbonization scenarios to assess the medium- and long-term impacts of energy transition on the energy system, emissions, economy, and society of the island of Mayotte. The model-based analysis adequately captures the specificities of Mayotte and examines the complexity, challenges, and opportunities to decarbonize the island’s non-interconnected energy system. The energy transition necessitates the adoption of ambitious climate policy measures and the extensive deployment of low- and zero-carbon technologies both in the demand and supply sides of the energy system, accounting for the unique characteristics of each individual sector, while sectoral integration is also important. To reduce emissions from hard-to-abate sectors, such as transportation and industry, the measures and technologies can include the installation and use of highly efficient equipment, the electrification of end uses (such as the widespread adoption of electric vehicles), the large roll-out of renewable energy sources, as well as the production and use of green hydrogen and synthetic fuels. Full article

This paper presents a new energy–economy system modelling approach, developed specifically for energy system planning in non-interconnected islands, aiming for decarbonization. Energy system planning is an essential tool to shape the energy transition to reach carbon neutrality in the medium- and long-term horizon. Islands, as small-scale energy systems, have a limited contribution to the global climate targets, but due to their geographical and natural limitations, they present the potential to become frontrunners in the clean energy transition, especially regarding the efficient use of resources. The specificities and complexities of geographical islands cannot be adequately covered by the available energy modelling tools and new advanced approaches need to be developed to provide the appropriate support in designing the future decarbonized energy systems at insular level. Our methodological approach follows the adaptation and customization of well-established energy–economy modelling tools towards the development of an integrated island-scale energy–economy system model, capturing energy demand and supply by sector, heating/cooling and mobility requirements, energy efficiency potentials and their complex interactions through energy prices, storage, flexibility services and sectoral integration. By soft-linking the energy and economy system modelling tools through the consistent exchange of model parameters and variables, we developed a fully fledged modelling framework called IntE3-ISL, designed for islands with a horizon up to 2050. Full article

The evolution of the Tunisian energy system in the next few decades will highly depend on the implementation of its Nationally Determined Contribution by 2030 and its potential long-term low-emission strategies. This study analyses the technology, emissions, energy systems and economic impacts of meeting Tunisia’s NDC targets (conditional and unconditional) and long-term transition pathways compatible with the Paris Agreement. Different climate policy targets and settings are explored using a detailed energy system model (MENA-EDS) that integrates detailed representations of energy demand and supply and their complex linkages through energy pricing. The analysis shows that in order to meet its NDC targets for 2030, current climate policies in Tunisia need substantial strengthening, based on the massive uptake of renewable energy technologies (especially solar PV and wind) and a reduction of oil and gas use. Long-term low-emission transitions leading to emission reductions of about 80% from baseline levels in 2050 is based on the further expansion of renewable energy within and beyond the electricity sector; the increased electrification of energy end-uses (especially through the uptake of electric vehicles in transport); accelerated energy efficiency improvements in transport, industries and buildings; and the emergence of low-carbon fuels. The study provides insights into the challenges to achieve the deep decarbonization of the Tunisian economy but also into the opportunities from energy sector-restructuring, including reduced energy import dependence and increased low-carbon investment. Full article