Special Issue "Hydrological Extremes under Climate Change and Socioeconomic Developments in Developing Countries"

A special issue of Water (ISSN 2073-4441). This special issue belongs to the section "Water and Climate Change".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (31 October 2021) | Viewed by 5579

Special Issue Editor

Dr. Hossein Tabari
E-Mail Website
Guest Editor
Department of Civil Engineering, University of Leuven (KU Leuven), Heverlee, Belgium
Interests: statistical analysis of hydrological extremes; climate change/variability impact assessment on hydrology and water resources; monitoring and modeling of water availability and drought/water scarcity
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Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

Climate change accelerates the Earth’s hydrological cycle, producing more droughts and floods with far-reaching socioeconomic consequences. Other human-caused changes, such as population growth, land use change, deforestation, agriculture expansion, urban construction, and industrial development, may increase the risk associated with extreme events. Developing countries and smaller economies suffer more from extreme events than developed countries due to their less resilient economies, poor preparedness to deal with the effects of extreme events, maladaptation because of the lack of knowledge/expertise and financial and technological resources in risk management, governance capacity constraints, limited climate-proof investment, and poor insurance systems to transfer expenses and financial mechanisms. This Special Issue aims to advance our understanding of past and future impacts of climate and socioeconomic changes on hydrological extremes (extreme precipitation, flood and drought) in developing countries to make more resilient societies to extreme events. A non-exhaustive list of possible contributions includes:

  • Dealing with sparse hydroclimatic and socioeconomic data;
  • Examination of observed trends in extreme hydrological events in developing countries;
  • Extreme event attribution;
  • Projections of hydrological extremes under different global warming levels;
  • Challenges of compound and cascading events;
  • Spatial analysis of hydrological extremes;
  • Physical, economic, and social vulnerability assessment of hydrological hazards;
  • Multivariate risk analysis of hydrological extremes;
  • Disaster risk reduction strategies;
  • Adaptation and resilience planning;
  • Sustainable development under the deep uncertainty of climatic and socioeconomic changes;
  • Analysis of complex human–natural systems in a changing environment.

Dr. Hossein Tabari
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • Hydrological extremes
  • Extreme precipitation
  • Flood and drought
  • Climate change
  • Socioeconomic changes
  • Risk analysis

Published Papers (4 papers)

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Research

Article
Comparison of Long-Term Changes in Non-Linear Aggregated Drought Index Calibrated by MERRA–2 and NDII Soil Moisture Proxies
Water 2022, 14(1), 26; https://doi.org/10.3390/w14010026 - 23 Dec 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 980
Abstract
This study aimed at evaluating Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA–2) and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) soil moisture proxies in calibrating a comprehensive Non-linear Aggregated Drought Index (NADI). Soil moisture plays a critical role in temperature variability and [...] Read more.
This study aimed at evaluating Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA–2) and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII) soil moisture proxies in calibrating a comprehensive Non-linear Aggregated Drought Index (NADI). Soil moisture plays a critical role in temperature variability and controlling the partitioning of water into evaporative fluxes as well as ensuring effective plant growth. Long-term variability and change in climatic variables such as precipitation, temperatures, and the possible acceleration of the water cycle increase the uncertainty in soil moisture variability. Streamflow, temperature, rainfall, reservoir storage, MERRA–2, and NDII soil moisture proxies’ data from 1986 to 2016 were used to formulate the NADI. The trend analysis was performed using the Mann Kendall, SQ-MK was used to determine the point of trend direction change while Theil-Sen trend estimator method was used to determine the magnitude of the detected trend. The seasonal correlation between the NADI-NDII and NADI-MERRA–2 was higher in spring and autumn with an R2 of 0.9 and 0.86, respectively. A positive trend was observed over the 30 years period of study, NADI-NDII trend magnitude was found to be 0.02 units per year while that of NADI-MERRA–2 was 0.01 units. Wavelet analysis showed an in-phase relationship with negligible lagging between the NDII and MERRA–2 calibrated NADI. Although a robust comparison is recommended between soil moisture proxies and observed soil moisture, the soil moisture proxies in this study were found to be useful in monitoring long-term changes in soil moisture. Full article
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Article
Influence of Terrestrial Precipitation on the Variability of Extreme Sea Levels along the Coast of Bangladesh
Water 2021, 13(20), 2915; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13202915 - 16 Oct 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 1086
Abstract
The coastal area of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to extreme sea levels because of high population exposure in the low-lying deltaic coast. Since the area lies in the monsoon region, abundant precipitation and the resultant increase in river discharge have raised a flood [...] Read more.
The coastal area of Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to extreme sea levels because of high population exposure in the low-lying deltaic coast. Since the area lies in the monsoon region, abundant precipitation and the resultant increase in river discharge have raised a flood risk for the coastal area. Although the effects of atmospheric forces have been investigated intensively, the influence of precipitation on extreme sea levels in this area remains unknown. In this study, the influence of precipitation on extreme sea levels for three different stations were investigated by multivariate regression using the meteorological drivers of precipitation, sea level pressure, and wind. The prediction of sea levels considering precipitation effects outperformed predictions without precipitation. The benefit of incorporating precipitation was greater at Cox’s Bazar than at Charchanga and Khepupara, reflecting the hilly landscape at Cox’s Bazar. The improved prediction skill was mainly confirmed during the monsoon season, when strong precipitation events occur. It was also revealed that the precipitation over the Bangladesh area is insensitive to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean Dipole mode. The precipitation over northern Bangladesh tended to be high in the year of a high sea surface temperature over the Bay of Bengal, which may have contributed to the variation in sea level. The findings suggest that the effect of precipitation plays an essential role in enhancing sea levels during many extreme events. Therefore, incorporating the effect of terrestrial precipitation is essential for the better prediction of extreme sea levels, which helps coastal management and reduction of hazards. Full article
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Article
Future Changes in Precipitation Extremes over East Africa Based on CMIP6 Models
Water 2021, 13(17), 2358; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13172358 - 27 Aug 2021
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 1486
Abstract
This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) [...] Read more.
This paper presents an analysis of projected precipitation extremes over the East African region. The study employs six indices defined by the Expert Team on Climate Change Detection Indices to evaluate extreme precipitation. Observed datasets and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase six (CMIP6) simulations are employed to assess the changes during the two main rainfall seasons: March to May (MAM) and October to December (OND). The results show an increase in consecutive dry days (CDD) and decrease in consecutive wet days (CWD) towards the end of the 21st century (2081–2100) relative to the baseline period (1995–2014) in both seasons. Moreover, simple daily intensity (SDII), very wet days (R95 p), very heavy precipitation >20 mm (R20 mm), and total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT) demonstrate significant changes during OND compared to the MAM season. The spatial variation for extreme incidences shows likely intensification over Uganda and most parts of Kenya, while a reduction is observed over the Tanzania region. The increase in projected extremes may pose a serious threat to the sustainability of societal infrastructure and ecosystem wellbeing. The results from these analyses present an opportunity to understand the emergence of extreme events and the capability of model outputs from CMIP6 in estimating the projected changes. More studies are recommended to examine the underlying physical features modulating the occurrence of extreme incidences projected for relevant policies. Full article
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Article
Regional and Seasonal Precipitation and Drought Trends in Ganga–Brahmaputra Basin
Water 2021, 13(16), 2218; https://doi.org/10.3390/w13162218 - 14 Aug 2021
Viewed by 1272
Abstract
Satellite-based precipitation products can be a better alternative of rain gauges for hydro-meteorological studies in data-poor regions. This study aimed to evaluate how regional and seasonal precipitation and drought patterns had changed in the Ganga–Brahmaputra Basin between 1983 and 2020 with PERSIANN-CDR precipitation [...] Read more.
Satellite-based precipitation products can be a better alternative of rain gauges for hydro-meteorological studies in data-poor regions. This study aimed to evaluate how regional and seasonal precipitation and drought patterns had changed in the Ganga–Brahmaputra Basin between 1983 and 2020 with PERSIANN-CDR precipitation data. The spatial pattern of winter drought, monsoon drought, and Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) calculated for different time scales were evaluated using principal component analysis. Ganga–Brahmaputra is one of the most populated river basins that flows through different geographical regions. Rain gauges are heterogeneously distributed in the basin due to its complex orography, highlighting the significance of gridded precipitation products over gauge observations for climate studies. Annual and monthly precipitation trends between 1983 and 2020 were evaluated using the original and modified Mann–Kendall trend test, and annual precipitation in the basin was found to be declining at a rate of 5.8 mm/year. An increasing trend was observed in pre-monsoon rainfall, whereas precipitation exhibited a decreasing trend for other months. Results of the Pettitt test showed precipitation time series was inhomogeneous and changepoint occurred around 2000. Decreasing trends of SPI indicated increasing frequency and intensity of drought events. Winter drought showed a clear spatial pattern in the basin; however, SPIs calculated for different time scales and monsoon drought had complex spatial patterns. This study demonstrates the applicability of satellite-based PERSIANN-CDR precipitation data in climate research in the Ganga–Brahmaputra Basin. Full article
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