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Dear Colleagues,

This is the second edition of Special Issue on “Tourism, Sustainability, Health and the Environment” in the International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, a peer-reviewed journal that publishes articles and communications in the interdisciplinary area of environmental health sciences and global health. Ten papers were published in the first edition of this Special Issue, which have attracted a lot of interest since their publication. The website of the 1st edition is https://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerph/special_issues/TSHE.

Covid-19 has directly affected the global economy. Tourism has been one of the sectors most affected by the stage of confinement that the novel coronavirus has inaugurated. The World Tourism Council has estimated a global loss of 75 million jobs and $2.1 trillion in revenue. Furthermore, the sector may experience a 25% reduction in its business. In this context, the need arises to seek new projects, initiatives, and proposals for the tourism sector that enhance aspects related to health and respect for the environment. This Special Issue aims to reflect on the impact of Covid-19 in the tourism field and on the transformations that this crisis will generate in the world of travel, the culture of travelers, and projects related to the tourism sector.

Dr. Santiago Tejedor Calvo
Dr. Laura Cervi
Guest Editors

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Keywords

tourism
pollution
sustainability
coronavirus
trip
health communication networks
slow journalism

Published Papers (1 paper)

Research

15 pages, 2043 KiB

Open AccessArticle

Did Human Microbes Affect Tourist Arrivals before the COVID-19 Shock? Pre-Effect Forecasting Model for Slovenia

by Sergej Gričar and Štefan Bojnec

Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2022, 19(20), 13482; https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph192013482 - 18 Oct 2022

Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1287

Abstract

In 2020, with a substantial decline in tourist arrivals slightly before the time of COVID-19, the innovative econometric approach predicted possible responses between the spread of human microbes (bacteria/viruses) and tourist arrivals. The article developed a conceptually tested econometric model for predicting an exogenous shock on tourist arrivals driven by the spread of disease using a time series approach. The reworked study is based on an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model to avoid spurious results. The periods of robust empirical study were obtained from the data vectors i) from January 2008 to December 2018 and ii) from January 2008 to December 2020. The data were obtained from the National Institute of Public Health (NIPH) and the Statistical Office of the Republic of Slovenia. The ARIMA model predicted the number of declines in tourist arrivals for the approaching periods due to the spread of viruses. Before the outbreak of COVID-19, pre-pandemic results confirmed a one-fifth drop in tourist arrivals in the medium term. In the short term, the decline could be more than three-quarters. A further shock can be caused by forecasted bacterial infections; less likely to reduce tourist demand in the long term. The results can improve the evidence for public health demand in risk reduction for tourists as possible patients. The data from the NIPH are crucial for monitoring public health and tourism management as a base for predictions of unknown events. Full article

(This article belongs to the Special Issue The 2nd Edition: Tourism, Sustainability, Health and the Environment)

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