Novel Approaches to Predict Extreme Events in Atmospheric Flows: From Turbulence to Climate

A special issue of Atmosphere (ISSN 2073-4433). This special issue belongs to the section "Meteorology".

Deadline for manuscript submissions: closed (30 April 2026) | Viewed by 2193

Special Issue Editor


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Guest Editor
Natural Resources Institute Finland (Luke), Latokartanonkaari 9, 00790 Helsinki, Finland
Interests: atmospheric boundary layer; turbulence; scaling analysis; complex system science; network science

Special Issue Information

Dear Colleagues,

In the current era, extremes hold a very special place, especially in the context of atmospheric science. To make research more challenging, extremes in meteorological variables have multiscale natures with different physical origins. For instance, at turbulent scales, the extreme events in wind components and scalar concentrations (temperature, greenhouse gases) are related to intermittency, a phenomenon that introduces significant challenges in turbulence parameterizations. This eventually has an impact on predictions of pollution concentrations, wind gusts, and turbulent fluxes over complex landscapes. On the other hand, at climate scales, the occurrences of extreme events (e.g., droughts, wildfires) are linked to different climatic phenomena, such as ENSO, volcanic eruptions, etc. However, with increasing global temperature, these events have risen in frequency at an unprecedented rate, with catastrophic consequences.

Despite their importance, the chaotic dynamics of atmospheric flows impose significant uncertainties regarding how the future intensities and spatial distributions of climatic extremes will vary. At the opposite end of the spectrum, the detection of extremes in turbulent variables continues to be an active area of research. Therefore, to make progress towards these issues, we encourage submissions that propose novel approaches (both theoretical and experimental) to diagnose extremes spanning across scales from turbulence to the climate. In this Special Issue, we invite submissions on topics that include, but are not limited to, the following:

  1. Statistical models to predict extreme events across multiple scales.
  2. Novel theoretical and experimental approaches to detect extreme events.
  3. The impacts of extremes on ecosystem greenhouse gas exchanges.
  4. Assessments of artificial intelligence/machine learning approaches in extreme event predictions.

Dr. Subharthi Chowdhuri
Guest Editor

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Keywords

  • atmospheric flows
  • climate extremes
  • boundary layer meteorology
  • fire–turbulence interactions
  • precipitation
  • extremes in turbulent flows
  • artificial intelligence/machine learning approaches
  • non-linear dynamics

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Published Papers (2 papers)

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Research

16 pages, 1881 KB  
Article
Comparative Evaluation of Short-Range Extreme Rainfall Forecast by Two High-Resolution Global Models
by Tanmoy Goswami, Seshagiri Rao Kolusu, Subharthi Chowdhuri, Malay Ganai and Medha Deshpande
Atmosphere 2026, 17(3), 304; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos17030304 - 17 Mar 2026
Viewed by 471
Abstract
Accurate prediction of extreme rainfall events during the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM, June to September) is critical for disaster preparedness and mitigation. This study evaluates the performance of two operational numerical weather prediction models, a high-resolution version of Global Forecast System (GFS T1534) [...] Read more.
Accurate prediction of extreme rainfall events during the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM, June to September) is critical for disaster preparedness and mitigation. This study evaluates the performance of two operational numerical weather prediction models, a high-resolution version of Global Forecast System (GFS T1534) and the control member of the Met Office Global and Regional Ensemble Prediction System-Global (MOGREPS-G), in forecasting such events during the ISM from 2020 to 2023. The results demonstrate that, with respect to observations, both models tend to underestimate the mean and variability of rainfall; GFS-T1534 represents the mean and correlation better while MOGREPS-G represents the variability better over the Indian landmass. To assess the models’ performance for extreme rainfall prediction, we fix a rainfall threshold of 50 mm day−1, and the skill scores are computed including Probability of Detection, False Alarm Rate, Bias score and F1 score. Together, these scores indicate that both models show potential in short-range forecasting of extreme rainfall events, particularly within 24 h, but their skills remain limited at longer lead times. Specifically, the model biases vary over different geographical locations, often showing contrasting features. This underscores the need for model-specific post-processing and calibration techniques if these forecasts are to be used effectively for operational decision-making. Full article
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17 pages, 2511 KB  
Article
Can GCMs Simulate ENSO Cycles, Amplitudes, and Its Teleconnection Patterns with Global Precipitation?
by Chongya Ma, Jiaqi Li, Yuanchun Zou, Jiping Liu and Guobin Fu
Atmosphere 2025, 16(5), 507; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos16050507 - 27 Apr 2025
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Abstract
The ability of a general circulation model (GCM) to capture the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not only a scientific issue of climate model performance, but also critical for climate change and variability impact studies. Here, we assess 48 CMIP5 GCMs [...] Read more.
The ability of a general circulation model (GCM) to capture the variability of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is not only a scientific issue of climate model performance, but also critical for climate change and variability impact studies. Here, we assess 48 CMIP5 GCMs for their skill in simulating ENSO interdecadal variability and its teleconnection with precipitation globally. The results show that (1) only 22 out of 48 GCMs display interdecadal variability that is similar to the observations; (2) the ensemble of the 48 GCMs captures the ENSO–precipitation teleconnection at the global scale; (3) no single GCM can capture the observed ENSO–precipitation teleconnection globally; and (4) a GCM that can realistically simulate ENSO variability does not necessarily capture the ENSO-precipitation teleconnection, and vice versa. The results could also be used by climate change impact studies to select suitable GCMs, especially for regions with a statistically significant teleconnection between ENSO and precipitation, as well as for the comparison of CMIP5 and CMIP6. Full article
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