Enhancing Travel Demand Forecasting Using CDR Data: A Stay-Based Integration with the Four-Step Model
Round 1
Reviewer 1 Report
Comments and Suggestions for AuthorsThis study attempts to compare travel demand estimated from call detail records (CDRs) with that derived from household travel survey data in Sri Lanka. The use of CDRs may offer promising potential, especially in developing countries. However, the overall quality of the manuscript is low. Basic information regarding the datasets, such as the survey year, is missing, raising concerns about the validity of comparisons that may be based on data from substantially different time periods. The assumptions underlying the analysis are not sufficiently discussed, and the quality of the figures is poor. The following are selected comments for future improvement. Please note that there are many additional issues that are not listed here.
Comments:
- Line 117:
Please specify the exact year and month of the data used for the analysis. - Lines 119–122:
Please provide more details about the household travel survey data. Indicate the survey year, survey method, and response rate. Also, discuss how the differences between CDR-based data and the household travel survey were addressed. - Lines 150–160:
How were students treated in the analysis? For students, the most frequent location during office hours would likely be schools rather than workplaces. Please clarify this point. - Line 22:
The phrase “a promising alternative” should clearly specify: an alternative to what? - Line 42:
The statement “informed by en-route cell data” is unclear. Please clarify the intended meaning. - Figure 5:
The figure only provides a comparison based on relative values. A comparison using absolute values is also necessary to properly assess the differences. - Figures 5–9:
These figures are not appropriately referred to or discussed in the main text. Please ensure that all figures are adequately cited and interpreted in the manuscript. - References:
Several journal names are missing in the reference list. Please ensure that all citations are complete and follow the appropriate journal style.
Author Response
Comments 1: Line 117:
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Response 1: Thank you for your comment. We have revised the manuscript to specify the exact year of the data. The sentence now reads: (line 167) |
Comments 2: Lines 119–122:
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Response 2: Thank you for this valuable suggestion. We have updated the manuscript to include additional details about the Household Visit Survey (HVS) (line 175-179) .Specifically, we now note that the survey was conducted in 2013 as part of the CoMTrans study, using a face-to-face interview method. The survey covered 44,000 households. To address the differences between the CDR-based data and the household survey data, we introduced spatial aggregation techniques that map cell towers to administrative boundaries and used statistical validation at both district and DSD levels. Moreover, adjustments were made to account for discrepancies in temporal coverage and data granularity. These methodological steps are now described in the revised “Study Area and Data” and “Results and Validation” sections.
Comments 3:
Lines 150–160:
Response 3: Thank you for this insightful observation. We agree that students' travel patterns differ from typical commuters, and that their frequent daytime locations are more likely to be schools rather than workplaces. In our analysis, we did not explicitly differentiate students from working individuals due to the anonymized nature of the CDR data, which lacks demographic labels such as age or occupation. However, frequent appearances at non-home locations during core daytime hours (10:00 am–4:00 pm) were interpreted as Work/Study locations. Therefore, for students, school locations would have been classified under this category. We have clarified this point in the manuscript.(line 233-237)
Comments 4:
Line 22:
Response 4: Thank you for pointing this out. The whole introduction section is adjusted to cover more background.
Comments 5:
Line 42:
Response 5: Thank you for highlighting this. We agree that the phrase lacked clarity. We have revised the sentence to explain that route assignment is guided by identifying the sequence of cell tower connections (en-route cells) made during actual commuting trips, which reflect the likely travel path of users. (line 81-83)
Comments 6:
Figure 5:
Response 6: Thank you for your valuable suggestion. In response, we have added a comparison of absolute Home-Based Work (HBW) trip counts at the district level, alongside the existing relative validation. (Table 6 and line 339-403)
Comments 7:
Figure 5:
Response 7: Thank you for bringing this to our attention. We have revised the manuscript to explicitly reference and interpret Figures 5–9 within the relevant sections..
Comments 8:
References:
Response 8: Thank you for pointing this out. We have thoroughly reviewed the reference list and updated it to ensure that all citations include complete information, including journal names, volume, issue, page numbers, and DOI (where available). All entries have also been formatted to comply with the journal’s reference style.
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Reviewer 2 Report
Comments and Suggestions for AuthorsThe article addresses an important and timely topic - the integration of mobile network data into travel demand modeling - and demonstrates an exemplary structure, with a clear progression from theoretical foundations to methodological innovation.
Although the authors identify a clear research gap, it remains somewhat unclear how this study substantially differs from previous works addressing the integration of mobile network data into travel demand models. For this reason, the literature review (2C) would benefit from more specific comparisons and concrete details, rather than general references, particularly regarding prior attempts at such integration. To strengthen the contribution claim, the authors could explicitly highlight the novel methodological elements in contrast to the closest existing studies.
While the overall structure is well-conceived, the manuscript suffers from issues of presentation and consistency, which at times give an impression of carelessness. For example: line 3 – 'Amal S. Kumarage' should be used instead of 'Prof. Amal S Kumarage'; line 72 – the section header appears oddly at the bottom of the page; line 94 – why is this subsection not marked as 'D.' like the previous ones? Such inconsistencies detract from the professional appearance of the paper and should be addressed in revision.
Author Response
Comments 1: The literature review (2C) would benefit from more specific comparisons and concrete details, rather than general references, particularly regarding prior attempts at such integration. To strengthen the contribution claim, the authors could explicitly highlight the novel methodological elements in contrast to the closest existing studies.
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Response 1: We appreciate the reviewer’s observation regarding the need for clearer differentiation from prior studies. In response, we have revised Section 2C to include more specific comparisons with closely related works, such as those by Gundlegård et al. (2016), Iqbal et al. (2014), and Fekih et al. (2020), focusing on their methodologies for OD matrix estimation and route assignment. We then explicitly contrast these with our study’s novel aspects, including: · The individual-based regularity model used to detect significant locations, · The caller-level OD estimation framework, and · The integration of en-route cell paths into route choice modeling using user-specific alignment probabilities. These elements are now discussed in a dedicated subsection at the end of the literature review to highlight their distinctiveness. (line 131-162)
Comments 2:
Response 2: "Prof. Amal S Kumarage" has been changed to "Amal S. Kumarage" in both the author line and correspondence section.
Comments 3: Line 72 – the section header appears oddly at the bottom of the page Response 3: The awkward page break before the section header has been corrected to ensure logical section placement.
Comments 4: line 94 – This subsection not marked as 'D.' like the previous ones
Response 4: The missing subsection label ('D.') has been added for consistency with prior subheadings (A–C).
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Reviewer 3 Report
Comments and Suggestions for AuthorsIn my opinion this manuscript presents a rigorous and innovative approach to integrating Call Detail Record (CDR) data into the classical four-step travel demand forecasting model. The authors have developed a stay-based methodology to identify significant user locations and construct origin-destination matrices. These have been validated against a large-scale household survey in Sri Lanka. The paper is clearly written, methodologically sound, and offers a compelling case for the use of passively collected mobile data in transport modelling. The empirical validation against traditional survey data is particularly valuable and reinforces the practical applicability of the method.
I particularly liked the following novelties as the main contributions of the paper:
- It introduces a novel, individual-centric approach that assesses the regularity of cell tower visits over time to accurately identify significant locations such as home, work, and other key sites, moving beyond generic clustering methods. This allows for more precise detection, tailored to individual mobility routines.
- It develops a trip origin-destination (OD) estimation method that accounts for individual-level behavioural variations. This is in contrast to traditional approaches that often rely on aggregated data. The result is enhanced granularity and accuracy of mobility modelling.
- It validates the CDR-derived trip and mobility models against comprehensive household survey data, establishing the reliability and robustness of the proposed methods at a detailed spatial and behavioural level. This is a relatively underexplored area in CDR-based mobility research.
- It takes into account parameters such as how regularly trips are made, how often they occur, and how regularly they appear. This provides a behavioural dimension to mobility estimation, improving the characterisation of individual trips and the modelling of route choice.
However, I also suggest the following (minor) improvements:
- The paper would benefit from a more explicit discussion on the limitations of the CDR-based approach in areas with low mobile phone penetration or data sparsity. This could affect the generalisability of the model.
- Although the methodology is clearly presented, a more detailed explanation of the assumptions behind the load-sharing correction method would enhance the reproducibility of the results.
- Figures 5 and 6 demonstrate a promising correlation; however, the text could offer a clearer explanation of the implications of the outliers and how they might affect the interpretation of model accuracy.
- The authors may wish to consider briefly discussing the potential privacy concerns related to CDR usage, even if anonymised, in order to address the ethical dimensions of big data usage.
- It may be useful to provide a brief comparative table or schematic summarizing key differences and advantages between the traditional and CDR-based models.
Comments on the Quality of English Language
- Line editing for grammar and clarity would improve the overall readability.
- Ensure that all acronyms (e.g., DSD, HVS, OD) are defined upon first use.
Author Response
Comments 1: The paper would benefit from a more explicit discussion on the limitations of the CDR-based approach in areas with low mobile phone penetration or data sparsity.
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Response 1: We agree with the reviewer that mobile phone penetration rates can significantly influence the robustness of CDR-based models. In response, we have added a discussion in the Conclusion section acknowledging this limitation .(line 465-472)
Comments 2:
Response 2: Thank you for this important suggestion. We have expanded the description of the load-sharing correction method in the Methodology section (line 197-210)
Comments 3: Figures 5 and 6 demonstrate a promising correlation; however, the text could offer a clearer explanation of the implications of the outliers and how they might affect the interpretation of model accuracy.
Response 3: We appreciate this observation. In the Results and Validation section, we have expanded the discussion following Figures 5 and 6. (line 392-400)
Comments 4: The authors may wish to consider briefly discussing the potential privacy concerns related to CDR usage, even if anonymized, in order to address the ethical dimensions of big data usage.
Response 4: We fully agree. A brief paragraph has been added to the Conclusion section to address the ethical and privacy considerations. .(line 475-479)
Comments 5: t may be useful to provide a brief comparative table or schematic summarizing key differences and advantages between the traditional and CDR-based models.
Response 5: Thank you for the helpful suggestion. We have added a comparative table (Table 2) summarizing the main distinctions between the traditional four-step model and the CDR-integrated approach.
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Round 2
Reviewer 1 Report
Comments and Suggestions for AuthorsYour study shares similar data sources and research questions with the following published paper, yet it does not demonstrate a clear contribution that exceeds that work. I recommend a fundamental revision and resubmission to a different journal.
Tsumura, Y., Asada, Y., Kanasugi, H., Arai, A., Shibasaki, R., Kawaguchi, H., and Yamada, K. (2022). “Examining potentials and practical constraints of mobile phone data for improving transport planning in developing countries.” Asian Transport Studies, Elsevier, 8, 100043.