Size Your Valve: Sutureless Valve Size Recomendation System Using Machine Learning Algorithm
Abstract
1. Introduction
1.1. The Imperative for Predictive Intelligence in Aortic Valve Replacement
1.2. The Evolving Paradigm of Aortic Valve Assessment: From Tactile Feedback to Advanced Imaging
1.3. The Rise in Preoperative Planning and the Ascendancy of MDCT
1.4. The Current Frontier: Justifying the Need for Predictive Artificial Intelligence Models
1.4.1. Para-Valvular Leak (PVL)
1.4.2. Overcoming Human Variability
1.5. Objective
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Data Collection
2.2. Data Pre-Processing
Data Cleaning and Feature Engineering
- 1.
- If the valve had a high gradient (>20 mmHg) or para-valvular leakage with internal folding, the size was penalized down (for example XL to L).
- 2.
- If the valve had more then mild para-valvular leakage (non-internal folding), its size was penalized up (for example, L to XL).
- 3.
- Two marginal categories were created:
- 1.
- No-s, where even the size S is big for a given annulus and can cause severe over-sizing (>22%, see [20]).
- 2.
- No-xl, where even the size XL is small for a given annulus.
2.3. Statistical Analysis
2.3.1. Predictive Modeling and Feature Selection
- Phase of CT scan.
- Maximal and minimal diameters of aortic annulus (for eccentricity calculation).
- Annular area and perimeter.
- Height.
- Weight.
- Prosthetic valve size with two marginal cases (no-s, small, medium, large, or extra-large, no-xl).
- Left ventricular function in percentages.
- Gradient on the prosthetic valve after 3 moths of implantation.
2.3.2. Model Development and Evaluation
- 1.
- One for original label prediction.
- 2.
- One for penalized label prediction.
2.3.3. Size Prediction Algorithm Development
Training Data
Validation Data
3. Results
3.1. Clinical Outcomes
Patients’ Characteristics
3.2. Model with Normal Labels
3.3. Model with Penalized Labels
3.4. Variable Importances
4. Discussion
4.1. The Conflict: Manufacturer vs. Evidence-Based Sizing
4.2. The Role of CT and Advanced Imaging
4.3. The Dangers of Over-Sizing
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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| Characteristic | No-S N = 5 | S N = 102 | M N = 139 | L N = 91 | XL N = 38 | No-XL N = 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum Diameter | 2.03 ± 0.10 | 2.38 ± 0.21 | 2.61 ± 0.20 | 2.86 ± 0.20 | 3.05 ± 0.22 | 3.19 ± 0.62 |
| Minimum Diameter | 1.62 ± 0.04 | 1.94 ± 0.19 | 2.11 ± 0.16 | 2.29 ± 0.23 | 2.46 ± 0.15 | 2.71 ± 0.54 |
| Perimeter | 6.07 ± 0.05 | 7.01 ± 0.62 | 7.63 ± 0.53 | 8.30 ± 0.62 | 8.91 ± 0.51 | 10.13 ± 1.30 |
| Area | 2.79 ± 0.06 | 3.83 ± 0.66 | 4.54 ± 0.58 | 5.40 ± 0.77 | 6.16 ± 0.61 | 9.53 ± 1.30 |
| Pre-Op Ejection Fraction | 59 ± 2 | 61 ± 5 | 60 ± 5 | 58 ± 6 | 60 ± 5 | 53 ± 12 |
| Post-Op Ejection Fraction | 55 ± 5 | 59 ± 5 | 60 ± 6 | 58 ± 7 | 61 ± 6 | 52 ± 8 |
| Post-Op Mean Gradient | 12.8 ± 2.8 | 14.7 ± 6.1 | 12.9 ± 4.0 | 11.8 ± 4.4 | 11.4 ± 3.5 | 9.6 ± 1.7 |
| Post-Op Para-valvular Leakage | ||||||
| No | 4 (80%) | 94 (92%) | 123 (88%) | 86 (95%) | 35 (92%) | 4 (80%) |
| Mild | 0 (0%) | 6 (5.9%) | 12 (8.6%) | 5 (5.5%) | 2 (5.3%) | 0 (0%) |
| Moderate | 1 (20%) | 2 (2.0%) | 4 (2.9%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 1 (20%) |
| Severe | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 1 (2.6%) | 0 (0%) |
| Characteristic | N = 380 |
|---|---|
| Age | 77.6 ± 4.9 |
| BSA | 1.83 ± 0.35 |
| BMI | 27.6 ± 4.4 |
| Sex | |
| Female | 127 (51%) |
| Male | 120 (49%) |
| CPB | 109 ± 38 |
| X-clamp | 67 ± 24 |
| Hospital Stay | 8.0 ± 4.4 |
| Hospital Mortality | 0 (0%) |
| Approach | |
| Right Minithoracotomy | 92 (38%) |
| Median Sternotomy | 58 (24%) |
| Mini-Sternotomy | 91 (38%) |
| Perceval Type | |
| Lancelot | 65 (17%) |
| Perceval S | 114 (30%) |
| Perceval Plus | 201 (53%) |
| Metric | All Normal | Train Normal | Test Normal | All Penalized | Train Penalized | Test Penalized |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 0.9184211 | 0.9964789 | 0.6875000 | 0.9289474 | 1 | 0.7216495 |
| Balanced Accuracy | 0.9120005 | 0.9966380 | 0.6926262 | 0.9563417 | 1 | 0.8318185 |
| F1-Score | 0.8836781 | 0.9957532 | 0.6867735 | 0.9399656 | 1 | 0.7519111 |
| Precision | 0.9449982 | 0.9975845 | 0.6893544 | 0.9535201 | 1 | 0.8258066 |
| Recall | 0.8432179 | 0.9940476 | 0.4592995 | 0.9296170 | 1 | 0.7294673 |
| Sensitivity | 0.8432179 | 0.9940476 | 0.4592995 | 0.9296170 | 1 | 0.7294673 |
| Specificity | 0.9807831 | 0.9992284 | 0.9259529 | 0.9830664 | 1 | 0.9341696 |
| Characteristic | No-S N = 30 | S N = 88 | M N = 132 | L N = 87 | XL N = 35 | No-XL N = 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maximum Diameter | ||||||
| Mean ± SD | 2.28 ± 0.21 | 2.40 ± 0.22 | 2.62 ± 0.19 | 2.87 ± 0.20 | 3.05 ± 0.23 | 3.14 ± 0.48 |
| Minimum Diameter | ||||||
| Mean ± SD | 1.85 ± 0.21 | 1.96 ± 0.19 | 2.11 ± 0.17 | 2.31 ± 0.22 | 2.45 ± 0.15 | 2.67 ± 0.42 |
| Perimeter | ||||||
| Mean ± SD | 6.70 ± 0.62 | 7.12 ± 0.60 | 7.63 ± 0.51 | 8.34 ± 0.62 | 8.87 ± 0.51 | 9.83 ± 1.08 |
| Area | ||||||
| Mean ± SD | 3.48 ± 0.66 | 3.95 ± 0.65 | 4.54 ± 0.55 | 5.46 ± 0.77 | 6.11 ± 0.59 | 8.51 ± 1.73 |
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Margaryan, R.; Concistrè, G.; Bianchi, G.; Solinas, M. Size Your Valve: Sutureless Valve Size Recomendation System Using Machine Learning Algorithm. Hearts 2026, 7, 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/hearts7020016
Margaryan R, Concistrè G, Bianchi G, Solinas M. Size Your Valve: Sutureless Valve Size Recomendation System Using Machine Learning Algorithm. Hearts. 2026; 7(2):16. https://doi.org/10.3390/hearts7020016
Chicago/Turabian StyleMargaryan, Rafik, Giovanni Concistrè, Giacomo Bianchi, and Marco Solinas. 2026. "Size Your Valve: Sutureless Valve Size Recomendation System Using Machine Learning Algorithm" Hearts 7, no. 2: 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/hearts7020016
APA StyleMargaryan, R., Concistrè, G., Bianchi, G., & Solinas, M. (2026). Size Your Valve: Sutureless Valve Size Recomendation System Using Machine Learning Algorithm. Hearts, 7(2), 16. https://doi.org/10.3390/hearts7020016

