1. Introduction
The fresh-cut fruit and vegetable industry has expanded significantly over the past decade across Europe. Per capita consumption of salad crops has grown in several European countries (Germany, France, Italy, the United Kingdom, and Spain) over the past decade, ranging from 0.7 to 1.7 kg per year in 2020, reflecting their popularity and strong consumer demand in this booming sector [
1]. This increase is driven by shifts in modern lifestyles and growing demand for convenient, quick, and healthy meal options. Lettuce, one of the most popular leafy greens, offers substantial nutritional value and has a significant economic impact [
2], due to high economic turnover and multiple harvests per year [
3]. Its wide-ranging health benefits are derived from bioactive compounds, including flavonoids, phenolic acids, carotenoids, various vitamins, and sesquiterpene lactones, which contribute to antioxidant, anti-inflammatory, antidiabetic, anticancer, and antiviral effects [
4].
According to FAO data [
5] from 2020 to 2024, the European Union’s harvested lettuce and chicory area declined from 131.050 to 120.070 ha, while production quantities decreased from 3.645.170 to 3.257.930 tonnes. Official data on lettuce production in Serbia remain unavailable, despite its ranking among the country’s most extensively cultivated vegetable crops [
6]. In neighbouring countries, data from the same period indicate decreasing harvested areas in most of them—except Croatia, Hungary, and Romania—while production quantities declined more broadly, affecting more countries, except in Hungary [
5].
Lettuce is a cool-season crop that exhibits optimal growth at temperatures ranging from 15 to 25 °C [
7]. In continental climate regions, it can be cultivated year-round through autumn, winter, and spring without using additional heating and lighting devices. Greenhouse systems permit higher productivity of crops per cultivation area compared to open-field systems through the possibility of production intensification [
8,
9]. As soil and water resources diminish amid rising global populations, greenhouse production proves indispensable for achieving maximum yields per unit area, independent of environmental limitations [
10]. In Serbia, the most common greenhouse type is the affordable, unheated ‘Mediterranean’ style designed for soil-based crops, much like those widely used in Turkey [
11].
Global agricultural productivity faces threats from plant diseases, inefficient chemical fertilisers, soil degradation, and water scarcity [
12]. Excessive nitrogen application—essential for obtaining high yields—causes eutrophication, emissions, nitrate accumulation linked to the formation of nitrosamines and methemoglobinemia, and yield declines, while prolonged use of chemical fertilisers degrades soil health, disrupts soil microbes, and depletes soil fertility [
13,
14,
15,
16]. Sustainable solutions like biofertilisers offer a promising approach to enhance crop productivity and plant resilience, meeting rising lettuce demand during intensifying climate pressures [
17,
18].
Biofertilisers are products containing beneficial microorganisms isolated from plant roots and the rhizosphere, in active or dormant forms. They competitively colonise plant roots, enhancing nutrient uptake, crop yields, and productivity while boosting stress tolerance, pathogen resistance, and growth through nutrient mobilisation and plant hormones. Eco-friendly and cost-effective, they build soil biological activity over time and increase yields by 10–40% via nitrogen fixation and elevated levels of amino acids, proteins, and vitamins [
19].
Trichoderma species, widely used as biocontrol agents against phytopathogenic microorganisms, promote plant growth and provide disease protection—often as endophytic fungi—via mechanisms such as enhanced nutrient access (e.g., nitrogen, phosphorus, potassium, zinc, iron), antibiotic and plant hormone production, ethylene reduction, and increased water acquisition [
20]. These species further reduce reliance on mineral fertilisers by boosting soil microbial activity and nutrient availability [
21]. Studies show that various
Trichoderma species and other biofertilisers have positive effects on lettuce agronomic performance, including quantity and quality traits [
22,
23,
24,
25,
26]. These biofertiliser effects guided our selection of 10 specific criteria for evaluating cultivar–biofertiliser performance.
These criteria directly reflect diverse stakeholder priorities across the lettuce value chain. Appearance, colour, and texture are the major marketable traits of fresh lettuce [
27]. Both consumers and the processing industry prefer cultivars with more leaves, with consumer attention focused on appearance, volume, and secondarily, the number of leaves [
28]. According to Maboko and Du Plooy [
29], the core ratio (stem-to-rosette length) must not exceed 0.5—a key processing industry indicator of rosette use efficiency, which signals premature bolting and unfavourable growing conditions.
Consumers value quality traits, where lettuce’s health benefits partly derive from phenolics (phenolic acids and flavonoids). Chlorogenic acid—a common secondary metabolite in lettuce [
30,
31,
32]—exhibits potent pharmacological activities, including different antioxidant and protective roles in both in vitro and in vivo studies [
33]. Total soluble solids also play a key role in quality, as they influence taste [
34]. While some bitterness is inherent to lettuce, consumers prefer less bitter, sweeter cultivars, increasing acceptance [
35]. Identifying preferred organoleptic qualities could guide growers and breeders in cultivar selection [
36].
Conventional agronomic statistical analyses determine significant differences between main factors (e.g., effects of cultivar or treatment). However, their application is limited when multiple parameters (criteria) must be considered simultaneously in decision-making to find optimal solutions. For instance, high-yielding cultivars may compromise processing quality standards. This makes single-parameter decision-making insufficient. Additional complexity arises from mixed quantitative and qualitative indicators, which carry inherent uncertainty. These scenarios significantly complicate choices, and in such situations, multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) methods can provide significant help by making the decision-making process more explicit, rational, and efficient [
37]. This methodological gap necessitates MCDM methods to integrate all criteria and rank cultivar–biofertiliser combinations comprehensively.
MCDM methods gained substantial attention across different sectors from 2012 to 2022, evidenced by 3.442 engineering publications compared to just 471 in agricultural and biological sciences [
38]. According to Cicciù et al. [
39], scientific papers on multi-criteria methods exploring agricultural sustainability grew markedly from 2016 to 2021, averaging six papers per year. MCDM methods are powerful analytical tools because they evaluate alternatives across conflicting criteria to identify optimal solutions. Traditional MCDM approaches, such as the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution (TOPSIS), and Elimination and Choice Translating Reality (ELECTRE), have demonstrated substantial effectiveness in complex decision problems [
40]. These have evolved into advanced fuzzy logic, hybrid, and AI-driven systems [
40]. MCDM methods incorporate both numerical and linguistic values, with the latter aligning closely with human cognition for intuitive expert assessments [
41]. In agricultural decision-making, traditional binary logic (true/false, yes/no) fails to capture real-field data’s nuance and uncertainty, while fuzzy logic addresses this by representing gradations such as ‘high’, ‘medium’, or ‘low’, making it ideal for agriculture’s dynamic and imprecise conditions [
42]. This methodology processes these linguistic inputs to address vagueness, mirroring human thinking when precise values are elusive [
43].
Traditional crop production methods fail to handle agriculture’s dynamic variables—climate fluctuations, soil degradation, market demands, and resource constraints—causing inefficiencies that advanced decision-making tools must overcome to optimise productivity and sustainability. Fuzzy logic enables decisions across a range of possibilities rather than rigid binary choices, allowing for rapid adaptation, optimised resource use, and enhanced real-time crop yields under such uncertainty [
42]. In lettuce production, recent studies have applied fuzzy logic to optimise irrigation with magnetically treated water [
44] and smart hydroponics for environmental control and optimised indoor growth [
45]. To our knowledge, however, the fuzzy MARCOS (Measurement Alternatives and Ranking according to COmpromise Solution) method has not been applied to optimise lettuce cultivar–biofertiliser production models.
The objective of this study is to apply an integrated fuzzy PIPRECIA (PIvot Pairwise RElative Criteria Importance Assessment)–fuzzy MARCOS framework to identify the most favourable lettuce cultivar–biofertiliser alternative. The proposed approach incorporates quantitative, qualitative, sensory, and economic criteria to support complex decision-making in greenhouse production systems. The results aim to provide a transparent and systematic basis for cultivar and biofertiliser selection under conditions of uncertainty, aiding transitions from synthetic to sustainable fertilisers.
4. Discussion
Growers and the processing industry face new demands every year for production quantities, quality, safety, and marketability. Product quality is as crucial as yield for all production sectors. Quality standard checks often decline during lettuce shortages—such as those caused by extreme disease and pest outbreaks or adverse environmental conditions—while they are carefully examined during surpluses [
69].
ANOVA results showed statistically significant effects of cultivar on quantity, quality, and sensory criteria (
Table 5). Optimal fresh weight plays a pivotal role in marketability and processing efficiency, directly influencing quality and profitability. However, findings on biofertilisers’ impact on plant productivity remain inconsistent—some studies report positive effects, such as increased fresh weight in lettuce, while others observe limited or no benefits. For instance, combining humic biostimulants with microbial inocula improved lettuce fresh weight compared to the control [
70]. Similarly, plant growth-promoting rhizobacteria increased lettuce head fresh weight and leaf number under field conditions [
26]. Applications of
Trichoderma asperellum strains (TaMFP1, TaMFP2) and
Trichoderma harzianum also boosted lettuce fresh leaf weight [
71]. These outcomes likely stem from microorganisms producing hormones, vitamins, enzymes, and plant growth-promoting compounds that enhance nutrient availability, uptake, and overall plant growth. Yet, their efficacy varies by plant species, soil type, soil fertility, application method, and frequency. Likewise,
Trichoderma performance depends on cultivar, the strain’s root colonisation ability, and application method [
72]. Like plants, microorganisms have specific environmental demands and limitations tied to production methods [
73].
Leaf number is influenced by agrotechnical practices and environmental factors; for example, high temperatures can accelerate the vegetative phase, causing premature flowering and a reduced number of leaves [
74]. A similar trend appears in butterhead lettuce, where positive correlations existed between plant fresh weight and other morphological parameters under varying photoperiods and light intensities [
75]. Longer internal stem length was linked to inferior quality in crisphead lettuce [
76], which is consistent with our moderate negative correlation between core ratio and total soluble solids (
Table 6). Nitrogen accumulation varies by lettuce type and cultivar, with seasonality significantly affecting nitrate levels—particularly during short days and low light when nitrate reductase activity decreases [
77]. Fresh weight and nitrate content showed no significant correlation with application of nanohydroxyapatite/hydrogel/N-fertilisers [
78]. In contrast, our study found positive correlations between yield and nitrate levels (
Table 6), with higher yields linked to higher nitrate content.
The literature highlights clear distinctions between green and red lettuce cultivars: green types typically exhibit higher head weight, while red show greater antioxidant capacity [
79,
80]. Application of a bacterial–algal preparation in romaine lettuce increased total antioxidant capacity 2.5-fold during the summer season compared to controls [
81]. Along with genotype, environmental factors—such as suboptimal conditions—can enhance TAC to counter oxidative stress in lettuce [
82]. Although fertilisers did not affect chlorogenic acid content, interaction between cultivar and biofertiliser had significant effect in lettuce [
32], aligning with our findings (
Table 5). Apart from genotype, polyphenol content in lettuce is influenced by growing treatments that alter nutrient availability; for example, a quarter-strength reduced-nutrient solution increased polyphenol accumulation compared to a full-strength solution [
83]. Abiotic stress conditions activate the phenylpropanoid biosynthetic pathway, boosting various phenolic compounds that improve plant performance under stress.
Taste is a key trait for breeders, producers, and consumers. Lettuce taste depends on sugars (sweetness) versus organic acids, phenolics, and sesquiterpene lactones (bitterness). Overall taste showed negative correlations with AOX and chlorogenic acid (
Table 6), indicating that higher levels of these compounds—particularly chlorogenic acid—likely contribute to bitterness or astringency, thereby reducing taste palatability.
Cultivar and biofertiliser effects create complex trade-offs across yield, taste, nitrate content, AOX, and production costs, complicating decisions about optimal cultivar–biofertiliser combinations for farmers, processors, and consumers. Contrasting correlation coefficients between yield and nitrate, AOX and overall taste, and chlorogenic acid and overall taste—along with significant cultivar × treatment interactions for core ratio, AOX, chlorogenic acid, overall taste, and yield—demonstrate that our fuzzy MCDM framework provides the optimal solution for selecting the best cultivar–biofertiliser combinations in lettuce production.
Beyond market pressures, costs for land, labour, fuel, nutrient inputs, packaging, safety, and transport are escalating. This requires global cost reductions in lettuce production. Our study showed that seedling costs represent the largest share of material costs, which dominate total variable costs for all cultivars, followed by packaging, while other costs have the smallest share (
Table 7). Variable costs account for 73.96% of total production costs in lettuce greenhouse production, as shown in a Turkish case study [
84]. Similarly, seeds and growing media represent the highest variable costs in hydroponic lettuce production [
85].
To address heating—one of the major costs—growers avoid energy use for heating, employ alternative coverings for frost protection, or favour frost-tolerant crops like lettuce during cold periods [
86]. Still, surging energy prices have made greenhouse lettuce too costly [
87]. For example, in regions with water scarcity, rising fertiliser costs are prompting farmers to adopt new practices for better resource efficiency and improved crop productivity [
88]. Unheated greenhouses are a good option for lettuce in continental climates, avoiding additional heating costs and allowing for other material costs to dominate. Individual growers and food processing companies must consider not only agronomic factors, but also overall production costs and returns. Beyond infrastructure, production costs primarily arise from inputs, enabling effective reductions through simple changes in cultivation management [
89]. The literature data show that vegetable production in unheated greenhouses is economically viable under different investment models [
90].
Research on lettuce and escarole production in Spain showed that higher greenhouse yields did not justify the environmental impact, recommending nitrogen fertiliser optimisation as the most effective path to cleaner production [
91]. There has been a global shift toward organic production, with consumers prioritising sustainability over large sizes and ideal shape [
92]. The conversion to integrated farming considers lower inputs of fertilisers, pesticides, and improved soil management practices that can address economic and ecological challenges [
93]. In recent years, the focus has been on developing new technologies to improve lettuce production through greater efficiency, lower costs, and enhanced sustainability [
94]. Thus, biofertilisers justify their application in lettuce production due to the possible harmful effects of large quantities of mineral fertilisers and pesticides, as well as their negative impact on the nitrate content and overall quality of produce.
The application of MCDM methods is essential for solving different problems in agriculture, as ANOVA suits only single criteria, while fuzzy approaches better capture human reasoning and qualitative data, such as sensory traits. In this context linguistic terms thus provide a more suitable representation of these traits.
The fuzzy MARCOS method offers several advantages: it considers fuzzy reference points (ideal and anti-ideal solutions) from the outset of model formation; it enables more precise utility degree determination; it introduces novel ways to define and aggregate utility functions; and it handles large sets of criteria and alternatives [
61]. These authors confirmed its suitability for uncertain environments, yielding stable results in dynamic, data-rich environments. For these reasons, we selected fuzzy MARCOS to address unpredictable conditions in an unheated greenhouse, including interactions between lettuce cultivars and effective microorganisms. A similar rationale guided optimal rapeseed variety selection using fuzzy logic, fuzzy PIPRECIA–fuzzy MABAC model to account for unforeseen climatic conditions [
95]. The weighting coefficients of the criteria, determined using the fuzzy PIPRECIA method, showed that the weight values obtained by the fuzzy PIPRECIA and inverse fuzzy PIPRECIA methods had correlation coefficients above 0.80, indicating a high degree of ranking consistency [
96].
The fuzzy MARCOS method has been widely employed across agriculture: Puška et al. [
97] used it for selecting sustainable suppliers based on economic, social, and environmental criteria; Maksimović et al. [
98] for choosing plum varieties for new orchards; Abualkishik et al. [
99] for evaluating smart agricultural production efficiency; Puška et al. [
100] for enhancing sustainable agro-touristic offerings; Puška et al. [
101] for ranking affordable drones suited to small and medium-sized farms; and Mondal et al. [
102] for assessing sustainable forest resource management models using the Pythagorean fuzzy MEREC-MARCOS approach.
MCDM methods have primarily addressed fruit production challenges [
41,
103,
104,
105]. In contrast, vegetable production requires more intensive timing management: annual crops like lettuce provide multiple cycles per year, with vegetation periods ranging from 55 to 70 or 70 to 100 days [
106] depending on the production system, lettuce type, and environmental conditions. Vegetable production creates faster revenue for producers compared to fruit production, making it logical to use MCDM methods for fast and reliable decision-making on optimal production solutions.
Rank reversal, a phenomenon in various MCDM methods, occurs when alternative rankings change upon adding/removing an uninformative alternative—yet methods prone to it remain widely used [
107]. Results from the Rank reversal test indicate that, out of 10 analysed scenarios, the only change occurred in the third scenario. This involved a swap in the rank positions of alternatives A2 and A4 (ranked eighth and ninth), resulting in their rotation (
Figure 2).
No significant changes were observed in the alternative ranking when applying different MCDM methods (
Figure 3). We validated and compared these results using the fuzzy WASPAS, fuzzy SAW, fuzzy MABAC, fuzzy ARAS, and fuzzy TOPSIS. Each method has its own specifics and, therefore, was used to confirm the results obtained by the fuzzy MARCOS method. Due to these differences, it is necessary to examine the results from these methods and check whether they agree with those from the fuzzy MARCOS method. The best-ranked alternative (A11, Aguino—EM Aktiv + Vital Tricho) retained its position across all methods, while the lowest-ranked alternative (A10, Gaugin—EM Aktiv + Vital Tricho) remained stable, consistently placed last or second-to-last. Alternatives A6 and A7 maintained identical ranks (second and third) under fuzzy WASPAS, fuzzy MABAC, and fuzzy SAW, though they swapped positions under fuzzy ARAS and fuzzy TOPSIS. These greater oscillations in certain alternatives stem from their highly similar characteristics, as well as differences in normalisation procedures and the mathematical foundations of the methods. The fuzzy MARCOS method’s suitability is confirmed by similar results in plum variety selection using the same methods [
98]. This analysis does not question the value of the results obtained with the fuzzy MARCOS method, which are confirmed by those from other methods. In this way, its application is justified because the results obtained by this method do not deviate from the results of similar methods.
Additionally, Spearman’s correlation coefficient between the fuzzy MARCOS and other MCDM approaches ranges from 0.85 to 0.99, indicating a high degree of ranking agreement. The strongest similarity was with fuzzy WASPAS (r = 0.99), and the weakest with fuzzy ARAS (r = 0.85). All values above 0.80 confirm the stable and reliable performance of fuzzy MARCOS relative to diverse MCDM methods, underscoring the model’s good robustness and limited sensitivity to changes in mathematical frameworks.
Similar conclusions emerge from the sensitivity analysis, which examined the impact of 20 scenarios involving ±30% changes in weight coefficients on ranking results. These variations caused no major deviations in alternative rankings. Alternative A11 retained the highest position across all scenarios (
Figure 4). Alternatives A6, A7, and A12—ranked second, third, and fourth—held their positions in 90% of scenarios. In all scenarios, A3 and A10 ranked last or second-to-last. These findings highlight the method’s high stability and robustness, showing that selecting the most favourable alternatives remains independent of individual weight changes. In addition, the task of sensitivity analysis is not only to consider the impact of different criteria on the change in the value of alternatives, but also the impact of these changes on the overall ranking of alternatives [
108]. Confirming our results, through sensitivity analysis, it has been shown that other fuzzy methods can be used, not only the fuzzy MARCOS method, similarly for apple selection using fuzzy methods [
109].
Thus, the results from all three phases of the sensitivity analysis consistently demonstrate the high stability and robustness of the fuzzy MARCOS model. First, the Rank reversal test showed near-complete rank stability: across ten scenarios of alternative removal, only one rotation was recorded, with all other positions unchanged. Second, comparing fuzzy MARCOS with five other fuzzy MCDM methods revealed a high degree of agreement, with the best- and lowest-ranked alternatives remaining stable across all methods. Spearman’s coefficients between fuzzy MARCOS and the other approaches ranged from 0.85 to 0.99, confirming rank stability despite differences in normalisation and mathematical structures. The third phase—varying ten criteria by ±30% across 20 scenarios—further illustrates the model’s resilience to weight changes. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients between the original ranking and those in the scenarios ranged from 0.87 to 0.96 (average 0.90) (
Figure 5), indicating that weight variations did not disrupt the rank structure. Combined, the results of the Rank reversal test, method comparisons, and weight variation analysis confirm that the proposed fuzzy PIPRECIA–fuzzy MARCOS model exhibits high robustness, with key recommendations (especially selecting the most favourable alternative A11) that are stable and reliable across a wide range of decision conditions. Studies on lettuce show that combining bacterial and fungal genera improves agronomic traits [
24,
110,
111], as confirmed in this study for the best-ranked alternative.
The complex interaction of various production factors, particularly in non-controlled agricultural environments, requires a comprehensive methodology for analysing factors jointly within a decision-making framework. In this context, the conjoint application of MCDM methods can provide a completely new insight into decision analysis by enabling the search for an optimal solution that simultaneously considers multiple criteria and ranks the best-performing alternatives. The evaluation of a limited number of cultivar-fertiliser combinations over a single growing season, alongside the Serbian market’s availability of over 20 cultivars and a similar number of microbial fertilisers (mostly imported from various seed and fertiliser companies), constitutes a study limitation.