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Open AccessArticle

Copula-Based Bivariate Flood Risk Assessment on Tarbela Dam, Pakistan

1
Department of Mathematics, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan
2
Department of Economics, University of Karachi, Karachi 75270, Pakistan
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Hydrology 2019, 6(3), 79; https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6030079
Received: 13 June 2019 / Revised: 16 August 2019 / Accepted: 23 August 2019 / Published: 30 August 2019
Flooding from the Indus river and its tributaries has regularly influenced the region of Pakistan. Therefore, in order to limit the misfortune brought about by these inevitable happenings, it requires taking measures to estimate the occurrence and effects of these events. The current study uses flood frequency analysis for the forecast of floods along the Indus river of Pakistan (Tarbela). The peak and volume are the characteristics of a flood that commonly depend on one another. For progressively proficient hazard investigation, a bivariate copula method is used to measure the peak and volume. A univariate analysis of flood data fails to capture the multivariate nature of these data. Copula is the most common technique used for a multivariate analysis of flood data. In this paper, four Archimedean copulas have been tried using the available information, and in light of graphical and measurable tests, the Gumbel Hougaard copula was found to be most appropriate for the data used in this paper. The primary (TAND, TOR), conditional and Kendall return periods have been also determined. The copula method was found to be a powerful method for the distribution of marginal variables. It also gives the Kendall return period for the multivariate analysis the consequences of flooding. View Full-Text
Keywords: flood-frequency analysis; return period; bivariate copula; tail dependence; Gumbel-Hougaard copula flood-frequency analysis; return period; bivariate copula; tail dependence; Gumbel-Hougaard copula
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Naz, S.; Ahsanuddin, M.; Inayatullah, S.; Siddiqi, T.A.; Imtiaz, M. Copula-Based Bivariate Flood Risk Assessment on Tarbela Dam, Pakistan. Hydrology 2019, 6, 79.

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