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Climate 2016, 4(4), 54;

Simulated Regional Yields of Spring Barley in the United Kingdom under Projected Climate Change

School of Agriculture, University of Cape Coast, Cape Coast 6693, Ghana
Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Dundee, Dundee DD1 4HN, UK
The James Hutton Institute, Invergowrie, Dundee DD2 5DA, UK
Department of Humanities and Social Sciences, Geography, University of Winchester, Winchester SO22 4NR, UK
Brighton Business School, University of Brighton, Moulsecoomb, Brighton BN2 4AT, UK
ADAS UK Ltd., Battlegate Road, Boxworth, Cambridge CB23 4NN, UK
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editors: Angelika Ploeger, Sisira S. Withanachchi, Engin Koncagul and Yang Zhang
Received: 16 July 2016 / Revised: 12 September 2016 / Accepted: 8 October 2016 / Published: 21 October 2016
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Climate Change on Crops, Foods and Diets)
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This paper assessed the effect of projected climate change on the grain yield of barley in fourteen administrative regions in the United Kingdom (UK). Climate data for the 2030s, 2040s and 2050s for the high emission scenario (HES), medium emissions scenario (MES) and low emissions scenario (LES) were obtained from the UK Climate Projections 2009 (UKCP09) using the Weather Generator. Simulations were performed using the AquaCrop model and statistics of simulated future yields and baseline yields were compared. The results show that climate change could be beneficial to UK barley production. For all emissions scenarios and regions, differences between the simulated average future yields (2030s–2050s) and the observed yields in the baseline period (1961–1990) ranged from 1.4 to 4 tons·ha−1. The largest increase in yields and yield variability occurred under the HES in the 2050s. Absolute increases in yields over baseline yields were substantially greater in the western half of the UK than in the eastern regions but marginally from south to north. These increases notwithstanding, yield reductions were observed for some individual years due to saturated soil conditions (most common in Wales, Northern Ireland and South-West Scotland). These suggest risks of yield penalties in any growing season in the future, a situation that should be considered for planning adaptation and risk management. View Full-Text
Keywords: barley; climate change; UK Climate Projections; AquaCrop; water and heat stress barley; climate change; UK Climate Projections; AquaCrop; water and heat stress

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Yawson, D.O.; Ball, T.; Adu, M.O.; Mohan, S.; Mulholland, B.J.; White, P.J. Simulated Regional Yields of Spring Barley in the United Kingdom under Projected Climate Change. Climate 2016, 4, 54.

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