Breast Cancer Mortality in the Americas and Australasia over the Period 1980–2017 with Predictions for 2025
Abstract
:Simple Summary
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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All Ages | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|
Year | Around 2012 | 2017 | Deaths in 2017 | % Change |
North America | ||||
Canada | 13.7 | 12.9 | 5318 | −5.8 |
USA | 13.7 | 12.7 | 42,000 | −7.3 |
Latin America | ||||
Argentina | 17.5 | 17.5 | 6049 | 0.0 |
Brazil | 11.6 | 12.1 | 16,724 | 4.3 |
Chile | 10.2 | 9.8 | 1504 | −3.9 |
Colombia | 9.8 | 10.9 | 3300 | 11.2 |
Costa Rica | 10.7 | 10.9 | 366 | 1.9 |
Cuba | 14.6 | 13.0 | 1519 | −11.0 |
Guatemala | 4.8 | 5.3 | 353 | 10.4 |
Mexico | 9.3 | 9.9 | 6756 | 6.5 |
Panama | 10.1 | 10.2 | 241 | 1.0 |
Puerto Rico | 13.0 | 12.5 | 445 | −3.8 |
Uruguay | 18.4 | 17.9 | 611 | −2.7 |
Venezuela | 13.8 | |||
Asia and Oceania | ||||
Hong Kong SAR | 8.5 | 9.4 | 721 | 10.6 |
Israel | 16.9 | 15.7 | 1078 | −7.1 |
Japan | 9.0 | 9.1 | 14,285 | 1.1 |
Kuwait | 15.2 | 17.1 | 102 | 12.5 |
Philippines | 16.7 | |||
Republic of Korea | 5.3 | 5.5 | 2497 | 3.8 |
Australia | 13.3 | 11.8 | 2898 | −11.3 |
New Zealand | 15.9 | 15.8 | 669 | −0.6 |
Age | Age Group 20–49 | Age Group 50–69 | Age Group 70–79 | Age Group 80+ | ||||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Year | 2012 | 2017 | Deaths | % Change | 2012 | 2017 | Deaths | % Change | 2012 | 2017 | Deaths | % Change | 2012 | 2017 | Deaths | % Change |
North America | ||||||||||||||||
Canada | 6.1 | 6.2 | 488 | 1.6 | 42.7 | 38.5 | 1944 | −9.8 | 86.9 | 84.2 | 1199 | −3.1 | 89.6 | 88.4 | 1687 | −1.3 |
USA | 6.4 | 6.1 | 4139 | −4.7 | 44.4 | 40.3 | 17,170 | −9.2 | 84.8 | 78.7 | 9293 | −7.2 | 75.8 | 74.9 | 11,398 | −1.2 |
Latin America | ||||||||||||||||
Argentina | 8.3 | 9.0 | 838 | 8.4 | 58.5 | 55.4 | 2298 | −5.3 | 101.1 | 111.1 | 1408 | 9.9 | 90.1 | 86.9 | 1480 | −3.6 |
Brazil | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3761 | 5.6 | 36.9 | 38.0 | 7715 | 3.0 | 57.5 | 62.2 | 2772 | 8.2 | 54.7 | 56.5 | 2475 | 3.3 |
Chile | 5.5 | 4.6 | 197 | −16.4 | 32.0 | 31.9 | 645 | −0.3 | 58.4 | 60.7 | 323 | 3.9 | 57.7 | 49.4 | 339 | −14.4 |
Colombia | 5.5 | 6.0 | 687 | 9.1 | 31.5 | 35.0 | 1611 | 11.1 | 54.9 | 59.3 | 536 | 8.0 | 46.7 | 54.8 | 464 | 17.3 |
Costa Rica | 5.2 | 5.8 | 63 | 11.5 | 34.0 | 32.7 | 155 | −3.8 | 62.3 | 69.9 | 77 | 12.2 | 66.1 | 62.4 | 71 | −5.6 |
Cuba | 6.5 | 5.5 | 163 | −15.4 | 47.8 | 40.4 | 595 | −15.5 | 87.3 | 90.5 | 355 | 3.7 | 84.2 | 80.4 | 406 | −4.5 |
Guatemala | 3.0 | 4.2 | 121 | 40.0 | 16.4 | 15.5 | 140 | −5.5 | 19.8 | 29.7 | 60 | 50.0 | 17.9 | 15.4 | 31 | −14.0 |
Mexico | 5.9 | 6.2 | 1795 | 5.1 | 31.7 | 33.8 | 3280 | 6.6 | 42.8 | 48.9 | 977 | 14.3 | 28.5 | 29.0 | 702 | 1.8 |
Panama | 5.4 | 6.8 | 60 | 25.9 | 33.5 | 31.3 | 102 | −6.6 | 50.9 | 50.2 | 39 | −1.4 | 49.3 | 47.3 | 40 | −4.1 |
Puerto Rico | 6.4 | 7.0 | 59 | 9.4 | 44.5 | 37.5 | 169 | −15.7 | 76.1 | 88.2 | 120 | 15.9 | 54.4 | 53.0 | 97 | −2.6 |
Uruguay | 9.0 | 10.2 | 75 | 13.3 | 59.3 | 55.7 | 210 | −6.1 | 113.9 | 106.1 | 138 | −6.8 | 96.7 | 87.8 | 188 | −9.2 |
Venezuela | 7.8 | 46.9 | 67.2 | 57.8 | ||||||||||||
Asia and Oceania | ||||||||||||||||
Hong Kong SAR | 4.9 | 5.6 | 125 | 14.3 | 31.1 | 35.0 | 398 | 12.5 | 31.4 | 35.3 | 83 | 12.4 | 62.6 | 52.3 | 114 | −16.5 |
Israel | 8.1 | 8.2 | 142 | 1.2 | 52.2 | 45.4 | 372 | −13.0 | 102.2 | 99.8 | 227 | −2.3 | 227.4 | 220.3 | 337 | −3.1 |
Japan | 5.3 | 5.2 | 1508 | −1.9 | 33.4 | 33.5 | 5856 | 0.3 | 34.3 | 38.5 | 3019 | 12.2 | 49.1 | 55.5 | 3901 | 13.0 |
Kuwait | 3.8 | 2.3 | 25 | −39.5 | 50.9 | 33.4 | 48 | −34.4 | 87.3 | 129.0 | 20 | 47.8 | 284.3 | 697.6 | 7 | 145.4 |
Philippines | 11.5 | 56.7 | 63.9 | 105.3 | ||||||||||||
Korea | 4.5 | 4.7 | 648 | 4.4 | 17.2 | 17.4 | 1210 | 1.2 | 16.1 | 19.7 | 367 | 22.4 | 20.7 | 26.3 | 272 | 27.1 |
Australia | 6.0 | 5.1 | 281 | −15.0 | 42.8 | 37.1 | 1074 | −13.3 | 80.3 | 73.7 | 635 | −8.2 | 159.4 | 157.7 | 908 | −1.1 |
New Zealand | 9.2 | 9.1 | 95 | −1.1 | 50.6 | 48.5 | 272 | −4.2 | 84.0 | 88.1 | 134 | 4.9 | 160.2 | 173.8 | 168 | 8.5 |
Country | Trend 1 | APC | Trend 2 | APC | Trend 3 | APC | Trend 4 | APC | Trend 5 | APC | Trend 6 | APC | AAPC |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | |||||||||||||
Canada | 1980–1986 | 1.2 b | 1986–1994 | −1.3 b | 1994–2012 | −2.6 b | 2012–2017 | −0.9 | −1.5 b | ||||
USA | 1980–1989 | 0.3 b | 1989–1995 | −1.7 b | 1995–1999 | −3.7 b | 1999–2003 | −1.5 b | 2003–2007 | −2.5 b | 2007–2017 | −1.7 b | −1.5 b |
Latin America | |||||||||||||
Argentina | 1982–1996 | 0.4 b | 1996–2011 | −1.2 b | 2011–2017 | −0.1 | |||||||
Brazil | 1980–1994 | 1.4 b | 1994–2003 | −0.1 | 2003–2017 | 0.7 b | 0.8 b | ||||||
Chile | 1980–1987 | 1 | 1987–2017 | −0.8 b | −0.4 b | ||||||||
Colombia | 1984–2003 | 1.5 b | 2003–2013 | 0.1 | 2013–2017 | 3 b | 1.2 b | ||||||
Cuba | 1980–2010 | 0.2 b | 2010–2017 | −1.6 b | −0.2 | ||||||||
Mexico | 1980–1993 | 3.4 b | 1993–2017 | 0.5 b | 1.5 b | ||||||||
Venezuela | 1980–1994 | 2.8 b | 1994–2008 | 0.7 b | 2008–2014 | 2.4 b | 1.9 b | ||||||
Asia and Oceania | |||||||||||||
Hong Kong SAR | 1980–2017 | 0 | 0 | ||||||||||
Israel | 1980–1995 | 0.6 b | 1995–2017 | −2.2 b | −1.1 b | ||||||||
Japan | 1980–1992 | 1.7 b | 1992–1997 | 3.6 b | 1997–2007 | 1.2 b | 2007–2017 | 0.2 | 1.4 b | ||||
Philippines | 1992–1994 | 12.6 b | 1994–1997 | −0.8 | 1997–2002 | 5.1 b | 2002–2014 | 1.6 b | 3 b | ||||
Korea | 1985–1993 | 5.5 b | 1993–2005 | 2.7 b | 2005–2017 | 1.2 b | 2.8 b | ||||||
Australia | 1980–1984 | 2.1 | 1984–1994 | −0.4 | 1994–1999 | −3.4 b | 1999–2017 | −1.9 b | −1.3 b | ||||
New Zealand | 1980–1989 | 0.5 | 1989–2015 | −2.2 b | −1.5 b |
Country | Observed Number of Deaths 2017 | Predicted Number of Deaths 2025 (95% PI) | Observed ASR 2017 | Predicted ASR 2025 (95% PI) | % Difference 2025 vs. 2017 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
North America | |||||
Canada | 5318 | 5800 (5618–6028) | 12.04 | 11.08 (10.59–11.57) | −8 |
USA | 42,000 | 42,800 (42,047–43,454) | 12 | 10.82 (10.59–11.06) | −9.8 |
Latin America | |||||
Argentina | 6024 | 6700 (6269–7069) | 16.67 | 15.48 (14.54–16.43) | −7.1 |
Brazil | 16,723 | 20,100 (19,605–20,605) | 11.5 | 11.1 (10.77–11.43) | −3.4 |
Chile | 1504 | 1600 (1508–1674) | 9.26 | 7.69 (7.21–8.17) | −16.9 |
Colombia | 3300 | 3700 (3446–3870) | 10.33 | 9.46 (8.95–9.98) | −8.4 |
Cuba | 1519 | 1700 (1621–1870) | 12.17 | 12.68 (11.47–13.89) | 4.2 |
Mexico | 6755 | 8100 (7845–8308) | 9.64 | 9.02 (8.76–9.29) | −6.4 |
Venezuela | 2204 | 2700 (2579–2917) | 13.69 | 12.64 (11.84–13.43) | −7.7 |
Asia and Oceania | |||||
Hong Kong SAR | 720 | 800 (771–919) | 9.44 | 9.83 (8.96–10.69) | 4.1 |
Israel | 1078 | 1100 (1011–1191) | 15.75 | 14.15 (12.9–15.39) | −10.2 |
Japan | 14,284 | 16,200 (15,697–16,752) | 9.15 | 9.43 (8.9–9.97) | 3.1 |
Philippines | 7145 | 9600 (9270–9848) | 17.25 | 16.17 (15.67–16.67) | −6.3 |
Korea | 2497 | 2800 (2635–2913) | 5.53 | 5.62 (5.28–5.95) | 1.6 |
Australia | 2898 | 2900 (2797–3092) | 11.76 | 10.04 (9.44–10.64) | −14.7 |
New Zealand | 669 | 600 (578–703) | 15.78 | 13.07 (11.62–14.51) | −17.2 |
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Wojtyla, C.; Bertuccio, P.; Ciebiera, M.; La Vecchia, C. Breast Cancer Mortality in the Americas and Australasia over the Period 1980–2017 with Predictions for 2025. Biology 2021, 10, 814. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10080814
Wojtyla C, Bertuccio P, Ciebiera M, La Vecchia C. Breast Cancer Mortality in the Americas and Australasia over the Period 1980–2017 with Predictions for 2025. Biology. 2021; 10(8):814. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10080814
Chicago/Turabian StyleWojtyla, Cezary, Paola Bertuccio, Michal Ciebiera, and Carlo La Vecchia. 2021. "Breast Cancer Mortality in the Americas and Australasia over the Period 1980–2017 with Predictions for 2025" Biology 10, no. 8: 814. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10080814
APA StyleWojtyla, C., Bertuccio, P., Ciebiera, M., & La Vecchia, C. (2021). Breast Cancer Mortality in the Americas and Australasia over the Period 1980–2017 with Predictions for 2025. Biology, 10(8), 814. https://doi.org/10.3390/biology10080814