Choosing a Future Shoreline for the San Francisco Bay: Strategic Coastal Adaptation Insights from Cost Estimation
College of Environmental Design, University of California Berkeley, Berkeley, CA 94720, USA
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J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5(3), 42; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030042
Received: 31 May 2017
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Revised: 24 August 2017
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Accepted: 26 August 2017
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Published: 4 September 2017
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Coastal Sea Levels, Impacts and Adaptation)
In metropolitan regions made up of multiple independent jurisdictions, adaptation to increased coastal flooding due to sea level rise requires coordinated strategic planning of the physical and organizational approaches to be adopted. Here, we explore a flexible method for estimating physical adaptation costs along the San Francisco Bay shoreline. Our goal is to identify uncertainties that can hinder cooperation and decision-making. We categorized shoreline data, estimated the height of exceedance for sea level rise scenarios, and developed a set of unit costs for raising current infrastructure to meet future water levels. Using these cost estimates, we explored critical strategic planning questions, including shoreline positions, design heights, and infrastructure types. For shoreline position, we found that while the shortest line is in fact the least costly, building the future shoreline at today’s transition from saltwater to freshwater vegetation is similar in cost but allows for the added possibility of conserving saltwater wetlands. Regulations requiring a specific infrastructure design height above the water level had a large impact on physical construction costs, increasing them by as much as 200%. Finally, our results show that the costs of raising existing walls may represent 70% to 90% of the total regional costs, suggesting that a shift to earthen terraces and levees will reduce adaptation costs significantly.
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Keywords:
sea level rise; coastal flooding; cost estimation; adaptation; coastal realignment; climate change; coastal planning; coastal management; San Francisco Bay; levees; seawalls
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MDPI and ACS Style
Hirschfeld, D.; Hill, K.E. Choosing a Future Shoreline for the San Francisco Bay: Strategic Coastal Adaptation Insights from Cost Estimation. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2017, 5, 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030042
AMA Style
Hirschfeld D, Hill KE. Choosing a Future Shoreline for the San Francisco Bay: Strategic Coastal Adaptation Insights from Cost Estimation. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2017; 5(3):42. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030042
Chicago/Turabian StyleHirschfeld, Daniella, and Kristina E. Hill. 2017. "Choosing a Future Shoreline for the San Francisco Bay: Strategic Coastal Adaptation Insights from Cost Estimation" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 5, no. 3: 42. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5030042
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