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Volume 13
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This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

Research on Operational Risk for Northwest Passage Cruise Ships Using POLARIS

by
Long Ma
1,2,3,4,
Jiemin Fan
1,
Xiaoguang Mou
5,*,
Sihan Qian
1,4,6,
Jin Xu
1,2,3,4,6,
Liang Cao
1,2,3,4,
Bo Xu
1,6,
Boxi Yao
1,6,
Xiaowen Li
2 and
Yabin Li
7
1
Naval Architecture and Shipping College, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China
2
Key Laboratory of Philosophy and Social Science in Hainan Province of Hainan Free Trade Port, International Shipping Development and Property Digitization, Hainan Vocational University of Science and Technology, Haikou 570100, China
3
Guangdong Provincial Engineering Research Center for Ship Intelligence and Safety, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China
4
Guangdong Provincial Key Laboratory of Intelligent Equipment for South China Sea Marine Ranching, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China
5
School of Mechanical Engineering, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang 524088, China
6
Shenzhen Institute of Guangdong Ocean University, Shenzhen 518116, China
7
Qingdao Institute of Shipping Development Innovation, Qingdao 266200, China
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2025, 13(7), 1335; https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13071335 (registering DOI)
Submission received: 13 June 2025 / Revised: 10 July 2025 / Accepted: 11 July 2025 / Published: 12 July 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Navigation Performance and Experimental Research of Ships in Ice-Covered Areas)
Versions Notes

Abstract

In the context of global warming, polar tourism is developing rapidly, and the demand for polar cruise travel in the Northwest Passage continues to increase, while sea ice has long been a key factor limiting the development of polar cruise tourism. This study focuses on the operational risk of sea ice on cruise ships in the Northwest Passage (NWP), aiming to provide a scientific basis for ensuring the safety of cruise ship navigation and promoting the sustainable development of polar tourism. Based on ice data from 2015 to 2024, this study used the Polar Operational Limit Assessment Risk Indexing System (POLARIS) methodology recommended by the International Maritime Organization (IMO) to establish three scenarios for the route of ice class IC cruise ships: light ice, normal ice, and heavy ice. The navigable windows were systematically analyzed and critical waters along the route were identified. The results indicate that the navigable windows for IC ice-class cruise ships under light ice conditions are from mid-July to early December, while the navigable period under normal ice conditions is only from mid- to late September, and navigation is not possible under heavy ice conditions. The study identified Larsen Sound, Barrow Strait, Bellot Strait and Eastern Beaufort Sea as critical waters on the NWP cruise route. Among them, Larsen Sound and Eastern Beaufort Sea have a more prominent impact on voyage scheduling because their navigation weeks overlap less with other waters. This study provides a new idea for the risk assessment of polar cruise ships in ice regions. The research results can provide an important reference for the safe operation of polar cruise ships in the NWP and the decision-making of relevant parties.
Keywords: NWP; polar cruise ships; navigational risks; POLARIS; navigable windows; critical waters NWP; polar cruise ships; navigational risks; POLARIS; navigable windows; critical waters

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MDPI and ACS Style

Ma, L.; Fan, J.; Mou, X.; Qian, S.; Xu, J.; Cao, L.; Xu, B.; Yao, B.; Li, X.; Li, Y. Research on Operational Risk for Northwest Passage Cruise Ships Using POLARIS. J. Mar. Sci. Eng. 2025, 13, 1335. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13071335

AMA Style

Ma L, Fan J, Mou X, Qian S, Xu J, Cao L, Xu B, Yao B, Li X, Li Y. Research on Operational Risk for Northwest Passage Cruise Ships Using POLARIS. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering. 2025; 13(7):1335. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13071335

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ma, Long, Jiemin Fan, Xiaoguang Mou, Sihan Qian, Jin Xu, Liang Cao, Bo Xu, Boxi Yao, Xiaowen Li, and Yabin Li. 2025. "Research on Operational Risk for Northwest Passage Cruise Ships Using POLARIS" Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 13, no. 7: 1335. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13071335

APA Style

Ma, L., Fan, J., Mou, X., Qian, S., Xu, J., Cao, L., Xu, B., Yao, B., Li, X., & Li, Y. (2025). Research on Operational Risk for Northwest Passage Cruise Ships Using POLARIS. Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, 13(7), 1335. https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse13071335

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