From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival

Bortko, Kamil; Pazura, Patryk; Hamari, Juho; Bartków, Piotr; Jankowski, Jarosław

doi:10.3390/app9071268

Open AccessArticle

From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival

by

Kamil Bortko

¹

,

Patryk Pazura

¹,

Juho Hamari

^2,3,

Piotr Bartków

¹ and

Jarosław Jankowski

^1,*

¹

Faculty of Computer Science and Information Technology, West Pomeranian University of Technology, 71-550 Szczecin, Poland

²

Gamification Group, Faculty of Information Technology and Communication Sciences, Tampere University, 33100 Tampere, Finland

³

Gamification Group, Faculty of Humanities, University of Turku, 20500 Turku, Finland

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

Appl. Sci. 2019, 9(7), 1268; https://doi.org/10.3390/app9071268

Submission received: 21 December 2018 / Revised: 12 March 2019 / Accepted: 18 March 2019 / Published: 27 March 2019

(This article belongs to the Special Issue Complex Networks and Machine Learning: From Molecular to Social Sciences)

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Abstract

One of the major questions in the study of economics, logistics, and business forecasting is the measurement and prediction of value creation, distribution, and lifetime in the form of goods. In ”real” economies, a perfect model for the circulation of goods is impossible. However, virtual realities and economies pose a new frontier for the broad study of economics, since every good and transaction can be accurately tracked. Therefore, models that predict goods’ circulation can be tested and confirmed before their introduction to ”real life” and other scenarios. The present study is focused on the characteristics of early-stage adopters for virtual goods, and how they predict the lifespan of the goods. We employ machine learning and decision trees as the basis of our prediction models. Results provide evidence that the prediction of the lifespan of virtual objects is possible based just on data from early holders of those objects. Overall, communication and social activity are the main drivers for the effective propagation of virtual goods, and they are the most expected characteristics of early adopters.

Keywords: virtual goods; product life span; innovation diffusion; virtual world; social networks

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MDPI and ACS Style

Bortko, K.; Pazura, P.; Hamari, J.; Bartków, P.; Jankowski, J. From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival. Appl. Sci. 2019, 9, 1268. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9071268

AMA Style

Bortko K, Pazura P, Hamari J, Bartków P, Jankowski J. From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival. Applied Sciences. 2019; 9(7):1268. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9071268

Chicago/Turabian Style

Bortko, Kamil, Patryk Pazura, Juho Hamari, Piotr Bartków, and Jarosław Jankowski. 2019. "From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival" Applied Sciences 9, no. 7: 1268. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9071268

APA Style

Bortko, K., Pazura, P., Hamari, J., Bartków, P., & Jankowski, J. (2019). From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival. Applied Sciences, 9(7), 1268. https://doi.org/10.3390/app9071268

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From the Hands of an Early Adopter’s Avatar to Virtual Junkyards: Analysis of Virtual Goods’ Lifetime Survival

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