Evaluating the Role of Canada Goose Populations in Transmission Dynamics During Peak HPAI Incidence in Iowa, February 2022–December 2023
Abstract
Featured Application
Abstract
1. Introduction
1.1. HPAI Epidemiology
1.2. Canada Goose Ecology and Behavior
1.3. Possible Role of Canada Goose in HPAI Transmission
1.4. Infection of Multiple Mammal Species
1.5. HPAI Risk to Public Health: Human-Adapted Mutation
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Period of Evaluation for Iowa: 6 March 2022–20 December 2023
2.2. Canada Goose Abundance Data
2.3. Outcome of Interest: HPAI Positive Counties
2.4. Statistical Methods: Bivariate Analysis
2.5. Multivariable Model Selection
2.6. Covariates
3. Results
3.1. Descriptive Statistics and Bivariate Results
3.2. Model Diagnostic Results
3.3. Multivariate Zero-Inflated Negative Binomial Results
4. Discussion
4.1. Canada Goose Abundance Hypothesis
4.2. Short-Term Strategy to Reduce H5N1 Spread: Reinforcing Biosecurity Guidelines
4.2.1. Maintaining Biosecurity on All Farms
4.2.2. Rodent Control
4.3. Study Limitations
4.3.1. Poultry Farm Data Limitations
4.3.2. Canada Geese and Covariate Species Data Limitations
4.3.3. Study Design Limitations
4.3.4. Reason for Lack of Poultry Farm Location Data
5. Conclusions
Supplementary Materials
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
Abbreviations
AIC | Akaike Information Criterion |
AI | Artificial Intelligence |
APHIS | Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service |
BIC | Bayesian Information Criterion |
HPAI | Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza |
HA | Hemagglutinin |
NA | Neuraminidase |
NaN | Not a Number |
OR | Odds Ratio |
VIF | Variance Inflation Factor |
RR | Relative Risk |
USDA | United States Department of Agriculture |
US | United States |
ZINB | Zero inflated negative binomial |
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Dichotomous Variable | Variable Description | Variable Type |
---|---|---|
Combined Canada goose count greater than median value | Whether a county’s cumulative Canada goose count, for years 2022–2023, was above the median value created from count data for 99 Iowa counties. Primary predictor. | Categorical 1 = Yes, 0 = No |
2022 Canada goose count greater than median value | Whether a county’s cumulative Canada goose count, for 2022, was above the median value created from count data for 99 Iowa counties. Stratified variable. | Categorical 1 = Yes, 0 = No |
2023 Canada goose count greater than median value | Whether a county’s cumulative Canada goose count, for 2023, was above the median value created from count data for 99 Iowa counties. Stratified variable. | Categorical 1 = Yes, 0 = No |
HPAI outbreak | Whether a county experienced an HPAI outbreak during the reference period (2022–2023). Outcome of interest. | Categorical 1 = Yes, 0 = No |
Predictor Variable and Covariates | Variable Description | Variable Type |
---|---|---|
Canada goose species abundance by quartile. | Primary predictor: Canada geese abundance derived from species counts stored in eBird for all 99 Iowa counties. Counts represent the entire reference period (January 2022–December 2023). | Categorical 1 = counts within the first quartile (25%), 2 = counts falling between the second and third quartile (25–75%), 3 = counts above the third quartile (>75%). |
Mallard duck species abundance by quartile. | Covariate: mallard duck abundance derived from species counts stored in eBird for all 99 Iowa counties. Counts represent the entire reference period (January 2022–December 2023). | Categorical 1 = counts within the first quartile (25%), 2 = counts falling between the second and third quartile (25–75%), 3 = counts above the third quartile (>75%). |
Wood duck abundance by quartile. | Covariate: Wood duck abundance derived from species counts stored in eBird for all 99 Iowa counties. Counts represent the entire reference period (January 2022–December 2023). | Categorical 1 = counts within the first quartile (25%), 2 = counts falling between the second and third quartile (25–75%), 3 = counts above the third quartile (>75%). |
Green-winged teal abundance by quartile. | Covariate: Green-winged teal abundance derived from species counts stored in eBird for all 99 Iowa counties. Counts represent the entire reference period (January 2022–December 2023). | Categorical 1 = counts within the first quartile (25%), 2 = counts falling between the second and third quartile (25–75%), 3 = counts above the third quartile (>75%). |
Year | Canada Geese | Mallard Ducks | Wood Ducks | Blue-Winged Teals | Green-Winged Teals | Snow Geese |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2022 | 1,293,380 | 334,310 | 28,872 | 66,320 | 67,224 | 568,426 |
2023 | 1,076,316 | 297,374 | 28,649 | 57,007 | 68,878 | 433,246 |
Total | 2,369,666 | 631,697 | 57,521 | 123,327 | 136,102 | 1,001,672 |
Variable | Species Count | HPAI+ Counties Count | Median | HPAI+ Counties > Median | χ2 (p-Value) |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Canada goose counts greater than or equal to median (full reference period) | 2,369,666 | 310,198 | 3947 | 9 (32%) | 4.29 (0.04) |
Canada goose counts greater than or equal to median 2022 | 1,293,380 | 152,166 | 2363 | 11 (39%) | 1.39 (0.24) |
Canada goose counts greater than or equal to median 2023 | 1,076,316 | 158,032 | 1600 | 11 (39%) | 1.39 (0.24) |
Variables/Covariates | RR | 95 CI% | p-Value |
---|---|---|---|
Canada goose abundance between 25th and 75th percentiles | 0.21 ** | 0.04, 0.90 ** | 0.04 ** |
Canada goose abundance above 75th percentile | 0.20 | 0.02, 1.11 | 0.13 |
Mallard duck abundance between 25th and 75th percentile | >100 | <0.01, >100 | 0.95 |
Mallard duck abundance above 75th percentile | >100 | <0.01, >100 | 0.98 |
Snow goose abundance between 25th and 75th percentiles | 1.44 | 0.31, 6.63 | 0.64 |
Snow goose abundance above 75th percentile | 0.81 | 0.20, 3.30 | 0.77 |
Wood duck abundance between 25th and 75th percentiles | <0.01 | <0.01, >100 | 0.95 |
Wood duck abundance above 75th percentile | <0.01 | <0.01, >100 | 0.96 |
Zero-inflated component | |||
Canada goose abundance between 25th and 75th percentiles | 0.18 | <0.01, 37.12 | 0.52 |
Canada goose abundance above 75th percentile | >100 | <0.01, >100 | 0.95 |
Mallard duck abundance between 25th and 75th percentiles | <0.01 | <0.01, >100 | 0.94 |
Mallard duck abundance above 75th percentile | 1.73 | <0.01, >100 | 0.99 |
Snow goose abundance between 25th and 75th percentiles | 8.51 | 0.29, 17.84 | 0.21 |
Snow goose abundance above 75th percentile | 0.18 | <0.01, 3.85 | 0.28 |
Wood duck abundance between 25th and 75th percentiles | >100 | <0.01, >100 | 0.92 |
Wood duck abundance above 75th percentile | >100 | <0.01, >100 | 0.95 |
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Jimenez, C.; Kolokotronis, S.-O.; Rosenbaum, J.E.; Hoepner, L.A. Evaluating the Role of Canada Goose Populations in Transmission Dynamics During Peak HPAI Incidence in Iowa, February 2022–December 2023. Appl. Sci. 2025, 15, 6900. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15126900
Jimenez C, Kolokotronis S-O, Rosenbaum JE, Hoepner LA. Evaluating the Role of Canada Goose Populations in Transmission Dynamics During Peak HPAI Incidence in Iowa, February 2022–December 2023. Applied Sciences. 2025; 15(12):6900. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15126900
Chicago/Turabian StyleJimenez, Christopher, Sergios-Orestis Kolokotronis, Janet E. Rosenbaum, and Lori A. Hoepner. 2025. "Evaluating the Role of Canada Goose Populations in Transmission Dynamics During Peak HPAI Incidence in Iowa, February 2022–December 2023" Applied Sciences 15, no. 12: 6900. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15126900
APA StyleJimenez, C., Kolokotronis, S.-O., Rosenbaum, J. E., & Hoepner, L. A. (2025). Evaluating the Role of Canada Goose Populations in Transmission Dynamics During Peak HPAI Incidence in Iowa, February 2022–December 2023. Applied Sciences, 15(12), 6900. https://doi.org/10.3390/app15126900