Thermal Comfort in Social Housing in Ecuador: Do Free-Running Buildings Work in Current and Future Climates?

Ecuador faces a significant housing deficit, prompting government policies aimed at improving access to social housing for vulnerable families. Despite its relatively small geographic size, the country exhibits substantial climatic diversity, encompassing ten distinct Köppen–Geiger climate zones. These range from tropical rainforests to high-altitude Andean regions, each requiring specific housing strategies. However, social housing units are typically designed using a standardized model that disregards regional climatic variations, leading to suboptimal thermal performance and energy inefficiencies. This study evaluates the thermal comfort performance of standardized free-running social housing across six distinct cantons, using the ASHRAE 55-2020 adaptive comfort model. Dynamic simulations were conducted for both current climatic conditions and future scenarios for 2050 and 2100, employing tools such as Meteonorm 8.1 (for weather data), EnergyPlus 9.4.0, and DesignBuilder 7.0 (for thermal modeling). The findings reveal significant differences in indoor comfort levels among identical housing units due to localized climate conditions. Notably, high-altitude regions showed improved thermal performance under future scenarios, whereas coastal lowland areas experienced increased discomfort. These results underscore the urgent need for climate-responsive, adaptive housing designs tailored to local climatic realities across all regions of Ecuador.