Influence of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff in Xiying River
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Study Area and Data
2.1. Study Area
2.2. Data
3. Method
3.1. Calculation Method of Temperature Contribution in Different Seasons
3.2. Calculation Method of Contribution Rate of Runoff Change
3.3. Acquisition and Interpolation of Meteorological Data
3.4. Mann–Kendall Trend Test and Mutation Test
3.5. Analysis on the Dynamic Change in Land Use and Transfer of Land Use Types
- (1)
- Dynamic change in land use
- (2)
- Analysis of land use type transfer
4. Results
4.1. Changes of Hydrological and Climatic Factors in Xiying River
4.2. Correlation of Hydrological and Climatic Factors in the Xiying River
4.3. Land Use Change in Xiying River
5. Discussion
5.1. Influence of Temperature on Runoff Change in Xiying River
5.2. Influence of Precipitation on Runoff Change in the Xiying River
5.3. Influence of Land Use Change on Runoff Change
5.4. Uncertainty Analysis
6. Conclusions
- (1)
- Runoff in the Xiying River demonstrated a modest upward trajectory over the observed period. Among them, the autumn runoff showed a significantly increasing trend; the annual runoff change trend was not significant because the runoff change trend in the wet season (summer) was not significant.
- (2)
- From 1976 to 2016, the annual average temperature showed an upward trend in the Xiying River Basin, especially since 2000. Seasonal temperature trends indicated a consistent warming pattern, with summer temperature increases contributing most significantly—approximately 33%—to the annual mean temperature rise. Basin-wide annual precipitation exhibited fluctuating characteristics with a progressive increasing trend, characterized by statistically significant precipitation increments across all seasonal periods.
- (3)
- The land use types were mainly forestland, grassland, and unused land in the Xiying River, and the change in land use structure was not significant. Land use composition demonstrated a dynamic transformation, with cultivated land and forestland proportions progressively increasing, while grassland and construction land percentages simultaneously declined. Water area and unused land exhibited minimal morphological alterations. Expanding forestland coupled with reduced grassland and construction land areas progressively amplified the watershed’s water conservation capacity, subsequently diminishing runoff production potential and potentially modulating future hydrological dynamics.
- (4)
- On the interannual scale, the distribution law of precipitation and runoff was consistent. The influence of precipitation on runoff mainly occurred from May to September, when precipitation was relatively abundant. During cold-season periods (spring and winter), temperature emerged as the dominant control on runoff variability, exhibiting a statistically significant correlation with discharge patterns compared to precipitation’s marginal influence. This regime shift coincided with sustained positive temperature anomalies driving cryospheric melt contributions, where thermal forcing-initiated meltwater generation from glaciers and seasonal snowpack. At this time, evaporation was weak, which led to the increase in runoff in the Xiying River.
Author Contributions
Funding
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Spring | Summer | Autumn | Winter | Annual | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Temperature: Z | 4.02 ** | 4.93 ** | 3.83 ** | 2.58 ** | 5.20 ** |
Precipitation: Z | 0.17 | 1.72 * | 2.24 ** | 1.65 * | −0.10 |
Runoff: Z | 0.51 | −1.02 | 1.04 | 2.57 ** | −0.01 |
Time Scale | Xiying River | |
---|---|---|
Precipitation | Temperature | |
January | 0.007 * | 0.168 ** |
February | 0.369 ** | 0.309 ** |
March | −0.098 ** | 0.487 ** |
April | −0.192 ** | 0.492 ** |
May | −0.006 ** | 0.217 ** |
June | 0.278 ** | −0.270 ** |
July | 0.474 ** | −0.250 ** |
August | 0.500 ** | −0.0458 ** |
September | 0.432 ** | 0.036 ** |
October | 0.659 ** | 0.154 ** |
November | 0.395 | 0.035 ** |
December | 0.038 ** | −0.031 ** |
Spring | 0.316 ** | −0.149 ** |
Summer | 0.414 ** | −0.262 ** |
Autumn | 0.628 ** | 0.062 ** |
Winter | 0.325 ** | −0.055 ** |
Annual | 0.465 ** | −0.206 ** |
Project | Types | Grassland | Cultivated Land | Construction Land | Forestland | Water Area | Unused Land | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Area (1980–2018) | Grassland | 708.29 | 24.24 | 1.00 | 181.88 | 1.06 | 95.85 | 1012.32 |
Cultivated land | 22.04 | 5.39 | 3.12 | 30.55 | ||||
Construction land | 1.65 | 0.03 | 1.68 | |||||
Forestland | 166.50 | 5.66 | 167.27 | 6.25 | 345.68 | |||
Water area | 1.96 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 2.05 | ||||
Unused land | 91.06 | 6.39 | 1.91 | 168.64 | 268.00 | |||
Total | 991.50 | 35.32 | 1.00 | 358.66 | 3.00 | 270.80 | 1660.28 |
Month | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Precipitation | 2.55 | 4.50 | 5.71 | 1.82 | 18.06 | 25.38 | 21.60 | 12.83 | 44.49 | 30.35 | 6.56 | 26.14 |
Temperature | 0.45 | 0.15 | 1.84 | 12.06 | 18.82 | 74.79 | 23.30 | 21.37 | 32.22 | 10.20 | 3.10 | 1.70 |
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Yan, P.; Wang, Q.; Wang, J.; Peng, J.; Zhu, G. Influence of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff in Xiying River. Land 2025, 14, 1381. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14071381
Yan P, Wang Q, Wang J, Peng J, Zhu G. Influence of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff in Xiying River. Land. 2025; 14(7):1381. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14071381
Chicago/Turabian StyleYan, Peizhong, Qingyang Wang, Jianjun Wang, Jianqing Peng, and Guofeng Zhu. 2025. "Influence of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff in Xiying River" Land 14, no. 7: 1381. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14071381
APA StyleYan, P., Wang, Q., Wang, J., Peng, J., & Zhu, G. (2025). Influence of Climate and Land Use Change on Runoff in Xiying River. Land, 14(7), 1381. https://doi.org/10.3390/land14071381