Optimization of Land Use Patterns in a Typical Coal Resource-Based City Based on the Ecosystem Service Relationships of ‘Food–Carbon–Recreation’

Imbalanced supplies and demands of ecosystem services (ESSD) can negatively affect human well-being. Optimizing land use patterns in cities and regions is, in fact, essential to mitigate this challenge and ensure sustainable development. In this context, the present study aims to analyze the supply and demand of food production services (FPs), carbon sequestration services (CSs), and recreation services (RSs) in a typical coal resource-based city (Huainan) in China. In addition, the main influencing factors and their driving mechanisms were further explored using the geographical detector (Geo-Detector) and multi-scale geographic weighted regression (MGWR) models. Future land use changes were also predicted under traditional and constrained development scenarios using the GeoSOS-FLUS model. The obtained results indicated that: (1) the comprehensive ecosystem service (ES) supply index decreased from 1.42 to 0.84, while the comprehensive demand index increased from 0.74 to 0.95 during the 2010–2020 period; (2) the urban and rural areas had spatial disparities; (3) changes in the construction, ecological, and cultivated land strongly impacted ES; (4) implementing constrained development scenarios can effectively protect the ecological land, control urban expansion, and improve the ESSD relationships in Huainan City. This study provides a valuable theoretical foundation and a methodological framework for future urban and land use optimization efforts, as well as for enhancing the sustainability of ecosystem services and mitigating the imbalance between the supplies and demands of ecosystem services.