Modeling the Multiple Driving Mechanisms and Dynamic Evolution of Urban Inefficient Land Redevelopment: An Integrated SEM-FCM Approach

Urban inefficient land redevelopment (UILR) is crucial for sustainable urban development, yet its progress is driven by the interplay of multiple factors. To systematically uncover the driving mechanisms and dynamic patterns of these factors, an integrated analytical approach combining Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) is developed in this study. Based on 222 valid survey responses from professionals across eight cities in China’s Yangtze River Delta region, five key factors are identified within the “drivers–pressure–enablers” conceptual framework: economic incentives, environmental objectives, social needs, policy guidance, and implementation conditions. SEM is first employed to examine static causal relationships, and the quantified pathway effects are subsequently incorporated into an FCM model to simulate the long-term evolution. The results reveal the following: (i) All five factors exert significant direct effects, with economic incentives, environmental objectives, and policy guidance also demonstrating notable indirect effects. (ii) The factors exhibit distinct temporal characteristics: policy guidance acts as a “fast variable” enabling short-term breakthroughs; economic incentives serve as a “strong variable” driving medium-term progress; and social needs function as a “slow variable” with long-term benefits. (iii) Policy guidance is essential, as its absence leads to persistently low effectiveness, while its synergy with implementation conditions can achieve satisfactory performance even without economic incentives. The combined SEM–FCM approach validates static hypotheses and simulates dynamic scenarios, offering a new perspective for analyzing complex driving mechanisms of UILR and providing practical insights for targeted redevelopment strategy design.