Exploring Multi-Scale Synergies, Trade-Offs, and Driving Mechanisms of Ecosystem Services in Arid Regions: A Case Study of the Ili River Valley

Understanding the interactions among ecosystem services (ESs) and their spatiotemporal dynamics is pivotal for sustainable ecosystem management, particularly in arid regions where water scarcity imposes significant constraints. This study focuses on the Ili River Valley, a representative arid region, to investigate the evolution of ESs, their trade-offs and synergies, and the underlying driving mechanisms from a water-resource-constrained perspective. We assessed five key ESs—soil retention (SR), habitat quality (HQ), water purification (WP), carbon sequestration (CS), and water yield (WY)—utilizing multi-source remote sensing and statistical data spanning 2000 to 2020. Employing the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) model, Spearman correlation analysis, Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR), and the Geodetector method, we conducted a comprehensive analysis at both sub-watershed and 500 m grid scales. Our findings reveal that, except for SR and WP, the remaining three ESs exhibited an overall increasing trend over the two-decade period. Trade-off relationships predominantly characterize the ESs in the Ili River Valley; however, these interactions vary temporally and across spatial scales. Natural factors, including precipitation, temperature, and soil moisture, primarily drive WY, CS, and SR, whereas anthropogenic factors significantly influence HQ and WP. Moreover, the impact of these driving factors exhibits notable differences across spatial scales. The study underscores the necessity for ES management strategies tailored to specific regional characteristics, accounting for scale-dependent variations and the dual influences of natural and human factors. Such strategies are essential for formulating region-specific conservation and restoration policies, providing a scientific foundation for sustainable development in ecologically vulnerable arid regions.