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Open AccessArticle

Jointly Modeling Drought Characteristics with Smoothed Regionalized SPI Series for a Small Island

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Instituto Superior Técnico (IST), Civil Engineering Research and Innovation for Sustainability (CERIS); Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto Superior Tecnico (IST), Department of Civil Engineering, Architecture and Georesources (DECivil), Av. Rovisco Pais, 1, 1040-001 Lisbon, Portugal
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National Laboratory for Civil Engineering (LNEC), Lisbon 1700-066, Portugal
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Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering Department (DEHA), Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza 60020-181, Brazil
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Department of Engineering, Polytechnic Institute of Beja, 7800-309 Beja, Portugal
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Water 2019, 11(12), 2489; https://doi.org/10.3390/w11122489
Received: 22 October 2019 / Revised: 20 November 2019 / Accepted: 22 November 2019 / Published: 26 November 2019
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Management of Hydrological Extremes: Floods and Droughts)
The paper refers to a study on droughts in a small Portuguese Atlantic island, namely Madeira. The study aimed at addressing the problem of dependent drought events and at developing a copula-based bivariate cumulative distribution function for coupling drought duration and magnitude. The droughts were identified based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) computed at three and six-month timescales at 41 rain gauges distributed over the island and with rainfall data from January 1937 to December 2016. To remove the spurious and short duration-dependent droughts a moving average filter (MA) was used. The run theory was applied to the smoothed SPI series to extract the drought duration, magnitude, and interarrival time for each drought category. The smoothed series were also used to identify homogeneous regions based on principal components analysis (PCA). The study showed that MA is necessary for an improved probabilistic interpretation of drought analysis in Madeira. It also showed that despite the small area of the island, three distinct regions with different drought temporal patterns can be identified. The copulas approach proved that the return period of droughts events can differ significantly depending on the way the relationship between drought duration and magnitude is accounted for. View Full-Text
Keywords: Standardized Precipitation Index; drought; Madeira; moving average; principal components analysis; copulas Standardized Precipitation Index; drought; Madeira; moving average; principal components analysis; copulas
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Espinosa, L.A.; Portela, M.M.; Pontes Filho, J.D.; Studart, T.M.C.; Santos, J.F.; Rodrigues, R. Jointly Modeling Drought Characteristics with Smoothed Regionalized SPI Series for a Small Island. Water 2019, 11, 2489.

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