2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Global Factsheet
2.2. Region of Interest
3.1. Water Impact
3.2. Core of Challenges
3.2.1. Limitation of International Law
3.2.2. Identifying the River/s and Basin
3.2.3. Water Allocation
3.2.4. Hydropolitical Influence
- Stage 1: The early investigations for the natural resources and the first industrial revolution in the 1760s, where the nations were looking for raw materials.
- Stage 2: Over time, it has been realized that more manpower is needed to maintain the investigation/extracting of natural resources.
- Stage 3: Emerging demand for technology and experts that would significantly save time, effort and cost.
- Stage 4: No matter how sufficient the manpower one has or the advanced technology one owns, absence of good management for the chain could damage the system severely; therefore, literature that focuses on resource and supply chain management has significantly increased.
- Stage 5: Even when a solid management system is conducted, without good governance and sophisticated policies, it would likely collapse. Hence, it has been recognized that decision-makers will play a crucial role here in maintaining the entire system. Currently many research studies supported proper governance and policies. This stage is located on the top of the pyramid system to ensure the smooth workflow and mitigate the consequences because the impact of failure at this stage is lethal.
3.2.5. Negotiation Level
- Multilateral players and multi-layered challenges for the ETB.
- A century of arguing over water allocation and sovereignty.
- The tangible bargaining power along with the dynamic political environment of the region.
- The basin segmentation where Turkey is the ultimate upstream country and Syria along with Iraq as downstream nations, but at the same time, Iraq is considered as a downstream nation for Syria; also, Iraq is considered the end-user for Euphrates after flowing from Turkey crossing Syrian territories.
- The mixed negotiation environment between the riparian countries where national security and political agendas meet with socio-economic challenges, giving multi-dimensional challenges for any possible agreement.
3.3. Stages of Transformation Management
- Negotiation: The development of this phase was initially built and described by Jay Rothman in 1989 as ARI, standing for: adversarial, reflexive, and integrative; in 1997, the action stage was added to the end with the four stages representing the transformation to become ARIA.
- Claiming: The development was done by Wolf in 1999 by deliberations and described 145 treaties to have the RNBE, standing for: rights, needs, benefits and equity.
- Collaboration: The building skills TSCC was developed by Kaufman in 2002, standing for: trust, skill, consensus and capacity.
- Geographic scope: The reflection of the geographic scope was implemented by Wolf in 2008 by modelling a fictional basin, the so-called Sandus River basin; the interacting example shows how the region has been subsequently developed along with the other above three phases, and the behavior of the geographic scope is reflected and shaped by the negotiation stages, where NWBR stands for nations, watershed, benefit-shed and at the best end with region.
3.4. The Role of Incentives
3.4.1. Regional Security
- A trigger for practical collaboration in terms of economic exchange between the riparian countries. The successful economic system will build ties between the three nations and practical commitments that could be used as a springboard for strategic partnership in different levels including water management.
- The revenue of the free zones is suggested to be shared by the riparian countries, and can be used to finance the respective national and regional projects to improve the health of the shared ETB and the ecosystems that nourish the region and provide the basis of its economies.
- The basis for building a friendly environment and special economic zones that would attract the international investment community.
3.4.3. Scientific Joint Projects
- Knowing in-depth and from different angles the value of natural resources in the region.
- It is a national demand to know the strengths and weaknesses and to better understand the links between the riparian economies and ecosystems, so as to best invest the resources.
- Having reliable and trusted data and records based on wide stakeholder participation to ensure a high level of transparency.
- Developing scientific partnership and building an academic capacity; by this a strong team would be created—a team which might be the core to establish a natural resource institute for peace in the region for the future.
3.5. Developing International Strategy
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