Study on the Spatiotemporal Evolution of Evapotranspiration and the Integration of Multi-Source Data in the Water Source Area of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfer Project

This study takes the Danjiangkou reservoir basin, which is the water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project, one of the largest water diversion projects in the world, as the research area. Three different types of evapotranspiration (ET) datasets are adopted, including the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ERA5—Land Component (ERA5Land), and Complementary Relationship (CR) datasets. These datasets are analyzed for spatiotemporal evolution and data fusion using Mann–Kendall analysis, Sen’s Slope analysis, and Extended Triple Collocation (ETC). The aim is to improve the accuracy of evapotranspiration estimation in the watershed of the water source area. The results show the following: (1) All three sets of evapotranspiration data indicate an increasing trend in the watershed, with rates of 0.78 mm/year, 0.14 mm/year, and 2.56 mm/year, respectively. Additionally, the seasonal variation in evapotranspiration is significant, with the rate of change being summer > spring > autumn > winter. (2) The data fusion results indicate that ERA5Land performs best in the water source area watershed, with the smallest root mean square error (RMSE) value. In the fused data, ERA5Land’s evapotranspiration data account for the largest proportion at 59.93%, GLEAM ET data account for 39.96%, and CR’s evapotranspiration data account for the smallest proportion at only 0.11%. (3) The spatial distribution shows that the fused data fully exploits the advantages of different evapotranspiration data, inherits the advantages of ERA5Land and GLEAM ET products, and achieves effective fusion of multi-source data, thereby forming a more accurate dataset. These research findings provide scientific references for the construction of digital twin watersheds, intelligent water resource allocation, and effective responses to climate change in the water source area of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project.