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Article

Effects of Elevated Air Temperature and CO2 on Maize Production and Water Use Efficiency under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Shaanxi Province, China

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College of Water Resources and Architectural Engineering, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
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Key Laboratory of Agricultural Soil and Water Engineering in Arid and Semiarid Areas, Ministry of Education, Northwest A&F University, Yangling 712100, China
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National Research Center of Fluid Machinery Engineering and Technology, Jiangsu University, Zhenjiang 212000, China
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Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), University Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany
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Department of Agronomy, MNS- University of Agriculture Multan, Multan 60650, Pakistan
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Faculty of Agriculture and Environmental Sciences, University of Rostock, 18059 Rostock, Germany
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Water Management and Agricultural Mechanization Research Center, Centre for Climate Change and Hydrological Modeling Studies, Department of Agricultural Engineering, Khwaja Fareed University of Engineering and Information Technology, Rahim Yar Khan 64200, Pakistan
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Center of Excellence in Water Resources Engineering, University of Engineering and Technology Lahore, Lahore 54000, Pakistan
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Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Atmosphere 2020, 11(8), 843; https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080843
Received: 1 July 2020 / Revised: 3 August 2020 / Accepted: 3 August 2020 / Published: 9 August 2020
The ongoing global warming and changing patterns of precipitation have significant implications for crop yields. Process-based models are the most commonly used method to assess the impacts of projected climate changes on crop yields. In this study, the crop-environment resource synthesis (CERES)-Maize 4.6.7 model was used to project the maize crop yield in the Shaanxi Province of China over future periods. In this context, the downscaled ensemble projections of 17 general circulation models (GCMs) under four representative concentration pathways (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0, and RCP 8.5) were used as input for the calibrated CERES-Maize model. Results showed a negative correlation between temperature and maize yield in the study area. It is expected that each 1.0 °C rise in seasonal temperature will cause up to a 9% decrease in the yield. However, the influence of CO2 fertilization showed a positive response, as witnessed by the increase in the crop yield. With CO2 fertilization, the average increase in the maize crop yield compared to without CO2 fertilization per three decades was 10.5%, 11.6%, TA7.8%, and 6.5% under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. An elevated CO2 concentration showed a pronounced positive impact on the rain-fed maize yield compared to the irrigated maize yield. The average water use efficiency (WUE) was better at elevated CO2 concentrations and improved by 7–21% relative to the without CO2 fertilization of the WUE. Therefore, future climate changes with elevated CO2 are expected to be favorable for maize yields in the Shaanxi Province of China, and farmers can expect further benefits in the future from growing maize. View Full-Text
Keywords: CERES-Maize; temperature; climate change; ET; maize yield; WUE CERES-Maize; temperature; climate change; ET; maize yield; WUE
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MDPI and ACS Style

Saddique, Q.; Khan, M.I.; Habib ur Rahman, M.; Jiatun, X.; Waseem, M.; Gaiser, T.; Mohsin Waqas, M.; Ahmad, I.; Chong, L.; Cai, H. Effects of Elevated Air Temperature and CO2 on Maize Production and Water Use Efficiency under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Shaanxi Province, China. Atmosphere 2020, 11, 843. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080843

AMA Style

Saddique Q, Khan MI, Habib ur Rahman M, Jiatun X, Waseem M, Gaiser T, Mohsin Waqas M, Ahmad I, Chong L, Cai H. Effects of Elevated Air Temperature and CO2 on Maize Production and Water Use Efficiency under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Shaanxi Province, China. Atmosphere. 2020; 11(8):843. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080843

Chicago/Turabian Style

Saddique, Qaisar, Muhammad I. Khan, Muhammad Habib ur Rahman, Xu Jiatun, Muhammad Waseem, Thomas Gaiser, Muhammad Mohsin Waqas, Ijaz Ahmad, Li Chong, and Huanjie Cai. 2020. "Effects of Elevated Air Temperature and CO2 on Maize Production and Water Use Efficiency under Future Climate Change Scenarios in Shaanxi Province, China" Atmosphere 11, no. 8: 843. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos11080843

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