Quantifying the Drivers of the Spatial Distribution of Urban Surfaces in Bangladesh: A Multi-Method Geospatial Analysis

Urban expansion threatens sustainable development in densely populated countries like Bangladesh. This study aims to quantitatively identify and evaluate the key drivers influencing the spatial distribution of urban surfaces (SDUS) in Chattogram City, providing insights into urban growth patterns over 30 years. Using Landsat 5 and 9 imageries, the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) was computed for 1993 and 2023 to map urban surface changes. A total of 16 geospatial variables representing potential drivers were analyzed. Four statistical and machine learning methods, including GeoDetector, Distributed Random Forest (DRF), global Geographically Weighted Random Forest (GWRF), and local GWRF, were employed to quantify individual and interactive influences on SDUS. The Geodetector analysis identified the central business district (CBD) as the most influential driver of urban surface distribution, with a q statistic of 0.22, followed by river proximity (q = 0.14) and administrative boundaries (q = 0.13). Across all models, CBD consistently ranked as a dominant factor. In the Distributed Random Forest (DRF) model, CBD showed the highest importance score (0.57), followed by coastlines (0.35) and rivers (0.35). The DRF model achieved the highest performance (R² = 0.612), outperforming the global GWRF (R² = 0.59) and local GWRF (R² = 0.529). Although variables like the proximity of administrative location and forests have low individual impacts, they show a stronger coupled influence. This industrial port-based economy expanded, facing challenges of uncontrolled urbanization, poor governance, and environmental issues. Promoting mixed land use planning, decentralizing urban governance, and improving coordination among implementing agencies may better resolve these issues. This work may help planners and policymakers in planning future cities and developing policies to promote sustainable urban growth.