Evaluation and Projection of Wind Speed in the Arid Region of Northwest China Based on CMIP6
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Materials and Methods
2.1. Materials
2.2. Methods
2.2.1. Model Evaluation
2.2.2. Deviation Correction
3. Results
3.1. Evaluation of Simulation Ability of CMIP6 Model Data
3.1.1. Temporal Simulation Ability
3.1.2. Spatial Simulation Ability
3.2. Deviation Correction of CMIP6 Model Data
3.3. Projection of Annual Wind Speed in the ARNC
3.3.1. Temporal Trend
3.3.2. Spatial Variation
3.4. Projection of Seasonal Wind Speed in the ARNC
3.4.1. Temporal Trend
3.4.2. Spatial Variation
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Institutional Review Board Statement
Informed Consent Statement
Data Availability Statement
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Abbreviations | |
---|---|
GCM | Global Climate Model |
CN05.1 | a 0.25° × 0.25° gridded monthly dataset over China developed by Wu et al. [36] |
CMIP6 | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 |
ARNC | Arid Region of Northwest China |
SSP | Shared Socioeconomic Pathway |
PME | preferred-model ensemble |
MME | multi-model ensemble |
CMIP | Coupled Model Intercomparison Project |
WCRP | World Climate Research Programme |
WGCM | Working Group on Coupled Modelling |
ESGF | Earth System Grid Federation |
IPCC | Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change |
RCP | Representative Concentration Pathway |
BP | baseline period |
NF | near future |
MF | mid future |
FF | far future |
FP | final period |
RMSD | Root-Mean-Square Difference |
r | correlation coefficient |
S | standard deviation ratio |
Indicator | Model Name | Institute (Country) | Atmospheric Resolution | Correlation Coefficient |
---|---|---|---|---|
A | ACCESS-CM2 | CSIRO-ARCCSS (Australia) | 1.875° × 1.25° | −0.06 |
B | ACCESS-ESM1-5 | CSIRO (Australia) | 1.875° × 1.241° | 0.41 ** |
C | AWI-CM-1-1-MR | AWI (Germany) | 0.938° × 0.938° | 0.16 |
D | BCC-CSM2-MR | BCC (China) | 1.125° × 1.125° | 0.37 * |
E | CAS-ESM2-0 | CAS (China) | 1.406° × 1.406° | −0.11 |
F | CESM2-WACCM | NCAR (USA) | 1.25° × 0.938° | −0.05 |
G | CMCC-CM2-SR5 | CMCC (Italy) | 1.25° × 0.938° | −0.15 |
H | CMCC-ESM2 | CMCC (Italy) | 1.25° × 0.9375° | −0.14 |
I | EC-Earth3 | EC-Earth-Consortium (Sweden) | 0.703° × 0.703° | 0.30 * |
J | EC-Earth3-Veg | EC-Earth-Consortium (Sweden) | 0.703° × 0.703° | 0.18 |
K | EC-Earth3-Veg-LR | EC-Earth-Consortium (Sweden) | 1.125° × 1.125° | 0.36 * |
L | FGOALS-f3-L | CAS (China) | 1.25° × 1° | −0.10 |
M | GFDL-ESM4 | NOAA GFDL (USA) | 1.25° × 1° | −0.19 |
N | IITM-ESM | CCCR-IITM (India) | 1.875° × 1.915° | 0.04 |
O | INM-CM4-8 | INM (Russia) | 2° × 1.5° | 0.07 |
P | INM-CM5-0 | INM (Russia) | 2° × 1.5° | −0.08 |
Q | IPSL-CM6A-LR | IPSL (France) | 2.5° × 1.259° | −0.02 |
R | KACE-1-0-G | NIMS-KMA (Korea) | 1.875° × 1.25 | −0.07 |
S | MIROC6 | MIROC (Japan) | 1.406° × 1.406 | 0.08 |
T | MPI-ESM1-2-HR | MPI-M (Germany) | 0.938° × 0.938° | −0.24 |
U | MPI-ESM1-2-LR | MPI-M (Germany) | 1.875° × 1.875 | 0.15 |
V | MRI-ESM2-0 | MRI (Japan) | 1.125° × 1.125° | 0.24 |
W | NorESM2-LM | NCC (Norway) | 2.5° × 1.875 | 0.38 * |
X | NorESM2-MM | NCC (Norway) | 1.25° × 0.938° | 0.17 |
Y | TaiESM1 | AS-RCEC (Taiwan, China) | 1.25° × 0.938° | −0.25 |
a | MME | 0.43 ** | ||
b | PME | 0.62 ** |
Scenario Name | Forcing Category | SSP | 2100 Forcing/(W·m−2) |
---|---|---|---|
SSP1-2.6 | Low | SSP1(sustainability) | 2.6 |
SSP2-4.5 | Medium | SSP2(middle of the road) | 4.5 |
SSP3-7.0 | Medium to High | SSP3(regional rivalry) | 7.0 |
SSP5-8.5 | High | SSP5(fossil-fueled development) | 8.5 |
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Long, Y.; Xu, C.; Liu, F.; Liu, Y.; Yin, G. Evaluation and Projection of Wind Speed in the Arid Region of Northwest China Based on CMIP6. Remote Sens. 2021, 13, 4076. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13204076
Long Y, Xu C, Liu F, Liu Y, Yin G. Evaluation and Projection of Wind Speed in the Arid Region of Northwest China Based on CMIP6. Remote Sensing. 2021; 13(20):4076. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13204076
Chicago/Turabian StyleLong, Yunxia, Changchun Xu, Fang Liu, Yongchang Liu, and Gang Yin. 2021. "Evaluation and Projection of Wind Speed in the Arid Region of Northwest China Based on CMIP6" Remote Sensing 13, no. 20: 4076. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs13204076