Collision Probability Prediction and Orbit Maneuvering Probability Determination of Non-Cooperative Space Object Orbit

Wen, Yuanlan; Yu, Zhuo; He, Lina; Wang, Qian; He, Xiufeng

doi:10.3390/rs12203310

Open AccessArticle

Collision Probability Prediction and Orbit Maneuvering Probability Determination of Non-Cooperative Space Object Orbit

by

Yuanlan Wen

^1,2,

Zhuo Yu

³,

Lina He

^1,†,

Qian Wang

¹ and

Xiufeng He

^1,*,†

¹

School of Earth Science and Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, China

²

Research School of High Technology, Hunan Institute of Traffic Engineering, Hengyang 421099, China

³

Xi’an Satellite Control Center, Xi’an 710043, China

^*

Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.

^†

These authors contributed equally to the work.

Remote Sens. 2020, 12(20), 3310; https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203310

Submission received: 5 September 2020 / Revised: 29 September 2020 / Accepted: 1 October 2020 / Published: 12 October 2020

(This article belongs to the Section Satellite Missions for Earth and Planetary Exploration)

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Abstract

Probability of collision between non-cooperative space object (NCSO) and the reference spacecraft (RS) has been increased drastically over the past few decades. The traditional method is difficult to identify the maneuvering of non-cooperative space object. In the present paper, not only positions and velocities, but also accelerations of non-cooperative space object are estimated as parameters by the extended Kalman filtering based on setting up the state linear equation and measurement model of the non-cooperative space object. The algorithm for predicting collision probability is derived from position error ellipsoid, and the algorithm for determining maneuvering probability is derived from maneuvering acceleration and its error ellipsoid, which can be employed to identify whether the upcoming space object is being maneuvered. An epoch Earth-centered inertial (EECI) coordinate system is suggested to replace Earth-centered inertial (ECI) to simplify coordinate transformation. Finally, a set of simulations were conducted to validate the proposed algorithms with the simulated measurement data of the reference spacecraft space-borne millimeter-wave (MMW) radar.

Keywords: non-cooperative space object; acceleration estimation; kalman filtering; collision probability; maneuvering identification

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MDPI and ACS Style

Wen, Y.; Yu, Z.; He, L.; Wang, Q.; He, X. Collision Probability Prediction and Orbit Maneuvering Probability Determination of Non-Cooperative Space Object Orbit. Remote Sens. 2020, 12, 3310. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203310

AMA Style

Wen Y, Yu Z, He L, Wang Q, He X. Collision Probability Prediction and Orbit Maneuvering Probability Determination of Non-Cooperative Space Object Orbit. Remote Sensing. 2020; 12(20):3310. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203310

Chicago/Turabian Style

Wen, Yuanlan, Zhuo Yu, Lina He, Qian Wang, and Xiufeng He. 2020. "Collision Probability Prediction and Orbit Maneuvering Probability Determination of Non-Cooperative Space Object Orbit" Remote Sensing 12, no. 20: 3310. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203310

APA Style

Wen, Y., Yu, Z., He, L., Wang, Q., & He, X. (2020). Collision Probability Prediction and Orbit Maneuvering Probability Determination of Non-Cooperative Space Object Orbit. Remote Sensing, 12(20), 3310. https://doi.org/10.3390/rs12203310

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Collision Probability Prediction and Orbit Maneuvering Probability Determination of Non-Cooperative Space Object Orbit

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