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Sustainability
Volume 17
Issue 23
10.3390/su172310812
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This is an early access version, the complete PDF, HTML, and XML versions will be available soon.
Article

Modelling Future Pathways for Industrial Process Heat Decarbonisation in New Zealand: The Role of Green Hydrogen

by
Geordie Reid
1,
Le Wen
2,*,
Basil Sharp
2,
Mingyue Selena Sheng
1,*,
Lingli Qi
1,
Smrithi Talwar
3,
John Kennedy
3 and
Ramesh Chandra Majhi
4,5
1
Energy Centre, Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
2
Economics Department, Faculty of Business and Economics, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1010, New Zealand
3
GNS Science Lower Hutt, Lower Hutt 5040, New Zealand
4
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, The University of Auckland, Auckland 1023, New Zealand
5
Traffic Engineering and Safety Division, CSIR—Central Road Research Institute, New Delhi 110025, India
*
Authors to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2025, 17(23), 10812; https://doi.org/10.3390/su172310812
Submission received: 4 September 2025 / Revised: 24 October 2025 / Accepted: 10 November 2025 / Published: 2 December 2025
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Toward Net-Zero Emissions: Interlinking Renewable Energy Policies, Carbon Markets, and Green Supply Chains)
Versions Notes

Abstract

Green hydrogen is a potential enabler of deep decarbonisation for industrial process heat. We assess its role in Aotearoa New Zealand using a bottom-up, least-cost energy-system model based on the integrated MARKAL-EFOM system (TIMES), which includes hydrogen production electrolysis, storage, and delivery of end-use technologies for process heat, as well as alternative low-carbon options. Drawing on detailed data on industrial energy use by sector and temperature band, we simulate pathways to 2050 under varying assumptions for electrolyser and fuel prices, technology efficiencies, electricity decarbonisation and carbon prices. In most scenarios, the least-cost pathway involves widespread electrification of low- and medium-temperature heat, with green hydrogen playing a targeted role where high-temperature requirements and process constraints limit direct electrification. Sensitivity analysis reveals that hydrogen uptake increases under higher carbon prices, lower electrolyser capital expenditure, and when grid connection or peak capacity constraints are binding. These results suggest that policy should prioritise rapid industrial electrification while focusing hydrogen support on hard-to-electrify, high-temperature processes, such as primary metals and mineral products, alongside enabling infrastructure and standards for hydrogen production, transport, and storage.
Keywords: green hydrogen; industrial process heat; TIMES modelling; scenarios; New Zealand green hydrogen; industrial process heat; TIMES modelling; scenarios; New Zealand

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Reid, G.; Wen, L.; Sharp, B.; Sheng, M.S.; Qi, L.; Talwar, S.; Kennedy, J.; Majhi, R.C. Modelling Future Pathways for Industrial Process Heat Decarbonisation in New Zealand: The Role of Green Hydrogen. Sustainability 2025, 17, 10812. https://doi.org/10.3390/su172310812

AMA Style

Reid G, Wen L, Sharp B, Sheng MS, Qi L, Talwar S, Kennedy J, Majhi RC. Modelling Future Pathways for Industrial Process Heat Decarbonisation in New Zealand: The Role of Green Hydrogen. Sustainability. 2025; 17(23):10812. https://doi.org/10.3390/su172310812

Chicago/Turabian Style

Reid, Geordie, Le Wen, Basil Sharp, Mingyue Selena Sheng, Lingli Qi, Smrithi Talwar, John Kennedy, and Ramesh Chandra Majhi. 2025. "Modelling Future Pathways for Industrial Process Heat Decarbonisation in New Zealand: The Role of Green Hydrogen" Sustainability 17, no. 23: 10812. https://doi.org/10.3390/su172310812

APA Style

Reid, G., Wen, L., Sharp, B., Sheng, M. S., Qi, L., Talwar, S., Kennedy, J., & Majhi, R. C. (2025). Modelling Future Pathways for Industrial Process Heat Decarbonisation in New Zealand: The Role of Green Hydrogen. Sustainability, 17(23), 10812. https://doi.org/10.3390/su172310812

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