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Article

Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania

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Department of Geography, University of Bonn, 53115 Bonn, Germany
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Centre for Rural Development, Mzumbe University, Morogoro 67311, Tanzania
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Department of Forest & Environmental Economics, Sokoine University of Agriculture, Chuo Kikuu, Morogoro P.O. Box 3009, Tanzania
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African Wildlife Foundation, Ifakara, Morogoro P.O. Box 277, Tanzania
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Department of Economics, Mzumbe University, Morogoro 67311, Tanzania
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Academic Editor: Bernard Lacaze
Sustainability 2021, 13(12), 6552; https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126552
Received: 19 May 2021 / Revised: 1 June 2021 / Accepted: 1 June 2021 / Published: 8 June 2021
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Environmental Sustainability of Contemporary Land Use Change)
The Kilombero wetland in Tanzania is affected by advancing land use and land cover changes (LULCC), where we observe a conflict between development interests and the necessity of conservation measures to maintain the functionalities of the ecosystem. Thus, assessing patterns of LULCC is crucial to foresee potential future developments and to develop sustainable future management strategies. In this study, we use a multi-method scenario approach to assess the spatial implications and underlying driving forces of potential change by (1) developing a System Dynamics Causal Loop Diagram (CLD) to disentangle the underlying socio-economic and ecologic driving forces, (2) deriving a qualitative business-as-usual (BAU) and a conservation scenario from participatory narratives elaborated during a stakeholder workshop, and (3) quantifying the spatial implications of these scenarios with the Land Change Modeler (LCM). Results indicate that under the BAU assumption only 37% of the natural vegetation is expected to persist until 2030 in the wetland. In contrast, strict enforcement of protected areas (conservation scenario) halts further conversion of the wetland. However, both scenarios pinpoint considerable expansions of cropland in the western highlands with potentially serious impacts on catchment-wide hydrological processes. The produced qualitative and quantitative outputs reveal hotspots of possible future change and starting points for advisable further research and management interventions. View Full-Text
Keywords: conservation; intensification; system dynamics; participatory scenario building; socio-ecology; Tanzania; land use and land cover change conservation; intensification; system dynamics; participatory scenario building; socio-ecology; Tanzania; land use and land cover change
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MDPI and ACS Style

Proswitz, K.; Edward, M.C.; Evers, M.; Mombo, F.; Mpwaga, A.; Näschen, K.; Sesabo, J.; Höllermann, B. Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania. Sustainability 2021, 13, 6552. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126552

AMA Style

Proswitz K, Edward MC, Evers M, Mombo F, Mpwaga A, Näschen K, Sesabo J, Höllermann B. Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania. Sustainability. 2021; 13(12):6552. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126552

Chicago/Turabian Style

Proswitz, Katharina, Mamkwe C. Edward, Mariele Evers, Felister Mombo, Alexander Mpwaga, Kristian Näschen, Jennifer Sesabo, and Britta Höllermann. 2021. "Complex Socio-Ecological Systems: Translating Narratives into Future Land Use and Land Cover Scenarios in the Kilombero Catchment, Tanzania" Sustainability 13, no. 12: 6552. https://doi.org/10.3390/su13126552

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