A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth
Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Literature Review
2.1. Background of Tourism Development
2.2. Tourism and Economic Growth.
3. Method
4. Model Estimation
4.1. Empirical Results
4.2. Post-estimations
5. Conclusion
Author Contributions
Funding
Acknowledgments
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Functions | Variables |
---|---|
The utility function of households | |
E0: expected utility function β: discounted rate h: typifies the habit persistence of consumption Ct: (using a CES function) is composed by:
Lal,t: Private land supply shock Ϛla,t: This exogenous variable represents the result of private land inputs on the economy σ, ν1, and ν2: the parameters of the constant elasticity of substitution (CES) CM, t: is composed by:
| |
The production functions of the tourism and non-tourism activities | |
Yi,t (i = T, NT): The value-added of the given sector Ωi, t (i = T, NT): The productivity function connected to the effects of physical capital and public sector Ki,t (i = T, NT): The physical capital and is calculated by the process: Ki, t+1 = Ii, t + (1−δ)Ki, t (i= T, NT)
| |
The productivity function connected to the effects of physical capital and public sector | |
At: The auto-regression processes of the total productivity shocks Ai,t: The auto-regression processes of the sector that point out sector and total productivity shocks ζP, t: The exogenous shock to the spill-over effects of public sector YP,t the effect of public sector Ki,t: The effect of physical capital : The spillover effect of Kp,t φP,i: The effect of the public sector φc,i:The effect of the private sector (i = T, NT): The parameters | |
The spill-over effects of capital and the accumulation of human capital | |
EXT,t: The exports of tourism ζH,t: The shock to human capital accumulation EXNT,t: The non-tourism products and : The effect of the tourism product on human capital ai, bi and πi: The parameters δH: The depreciation rate of human capital : The externality of experience | |
The exports | |
The real exchange rate in USD RERt: The exchange rate YROW,t: The world income level |
Functions | Variables |
---|---|
The model VAR | |
: represent an nH × 1 vector corresponding to endogenous variables for t = 1…, T c: Group of terms p: The VAR lag length [B1, …, Bp]: Parameter matrices ut: The vector of forecast errors defined by the multivariate normal distribution N (0; ∑u) | |
Vector of VAR variables | |
YT,t: The production in the tourist industry YNT,t: The production in the non- tourist industries Ct: Per capita real consumption GDPt: Per capita real GDP Pt: Applies the GDP deflator Rt: The federal funds rate adjusted at the annual rate EXt: The trade-weighted nominal exchange rate in the United | |
The DSGE-VAR estimation | |
be a T×nH matrix with each row consisting of Xv be a T×k matrix with the t-th row containing in where k ≡ 1 + p× nH. ϕ: The maximum-likelihood estimator is calculated according to DSGE parameters vector | |
DSGE parameters vector | |
θ: Vector consisting of the DSGE parameters EDh: The expectation operator conditional on the DSGE parameter vector θ |
Variables | Code | Value in Steady State | Time Period |
---|---|---|---|
GDP/GDP | Y | 1.00 | – |
Tourism Value Added/GDP | YT | 0.11 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Value Added/GDP | YNT | 0.72 | 2002–2017 |
Public Service Value Added/GDP | YP | 0.17 | 2002–2017 |
Final Consumption/GDP | C | 0.58 | 2002–2017 |
Total Investment/GDP | Ī | 0.21 | 2002–2017 |
Imports/GDP | CM | 0.29 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Exports/GDP | EXNT | 0.05 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Exports/GDP | EXT | 0.23 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Imports/GDP | CMT | 0.01 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Imports/GDP | CMNT | 0.29 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Investment/GDP | IT | 0.01 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Investment/GDP | INT | 0.16 | 2002–2017 |
Public Service Investment/GDP | IP | 0.04 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism FDI/GDP | ĪT DF | 0.01 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism FDI/GDP | ĪNTDF | 0.06 | 2002–2017 |
Balance of Payments/GDP | BP | 0.04 | 2002–2017 |
Unemployment | u | 0.15 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Consumption/(Final Consumption + Imports) | γ1 | 0.08 | 2002–2017 |
Non-tourism Consumption/(Final Consumption + Imports) | γ2 | 0.50 | 2002–2017 |
Public Service Consumption/(Final Consumption + Imports) | γ3 | 0.20 | 2002–2017 |
Tourism Employment/Employment | nT | 0.11 | 2002–2016 |
Non-tourism Employment/Employment | nNT | 0.59 | 2002–2017 |
Public Service Employment/Employment | nP | 0.27 | 2002–2017 |
CPI | P | 1.00 | – |
Tourism Price | PT | 1.00 | – |
Non-tourism Price | PNT | 1.00 | – |
Public Good Price | PP | - | - |
GDP Growth Rate | gy | Log (1.02) | 1992–2017 |
Final Consumption Growth Rate | gC | Log (1.02) | 1992–2017 |
Investment Growth Rate | gI | Log (1.02) | 1992–2017 |
Government Consumption Growth Rate | gP | Log (1.02) | 1992–2017 |
Exports Growth Rate | gEX | Log (1.03) | 1992–2017 |
Production Tax Rate | τY | 0.12 | – |
Prior Distribution | Posterior Distribution | 90% Interval | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | High | ||||||
Structure Parameter | β | Beta (0.99,0.00) | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.99 | ||
Discount Rate | |||||||
Physical Capital Depreciation Rate | δ | Beta (0.02,0.00) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.02 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Tourism Industry | α1 | Beta (0.37,0.10) | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.60 | ||
Output Elasticity of Human Capital in the Tourism Industry | α2 | Beta (0.44,0.10) | 0.07 | 0.03 | 0.11 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Non-tourism Industry | α3 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.65 | 0.60 | 0.70 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Public Service Industry | α4 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.69 | 0.65 | 0.73 | ||
Habit Persistent | h | Beta (0.85,0.01) | 0.85 | 0.85 | 0.86 | ||
Elasticity of Leisure | ν1 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.98 | 1.93 | 2.09 | ||
Elasticity of Private Land | ν2 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 2.10 | 2.02 | 2.18 | ||
Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution | σ | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.94 | 1.91 | 1.98 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism, Non-tourism Goods and Public Services | θ1 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.38 | 0.37 | 0.40 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between FDI and Domestic Investment | θ2 | Gamma (1.51,0.10) | 1.45 | 1.41 | 1.47 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism and Non-tourism Imports | θ3 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.53 | 0.51 | 0.56 | ||
Price Elasticity of Tourism Exports (Absolute) | θEX,T | Gamma (0.39,0.10) | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.41 | ||
Price Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports (Absolute) | θE, | NT | Gamma (0.19,0.10) | 0.32 | 0.28 | 0.35 | |
Income Elasticity of Tourism Exports | ωT | Gamma (0.81,0.10) | 1.00 | 0.94 | 1.12 | ||
Income Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports | ωNT | Gamma (0.27,0.10) | 0.05 | 0.03 | 0.07 | ||
Autoregressive Coefficient of Return Rate | θtr | Beta (0.80,0.10) | 0.95 | 0.92 | 0.96 | ||
Elasticity of Price in the Taylor Rule | θp | Gamma (1.70,0.10) | 1.73 | 1.69 | 1.76 | ||
Elasticity of GDP in the Taylor Rule | θy | Gamma (0.12,0.05) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.14 | ||
Elasticity of Tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | aT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.48 | 0.43 | 0.51 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports of the Tourism Industry in Human Capital Accumulation | bT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Tourism Industry | πT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.31 | 0.28 | 0.33 | ||
Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | a T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.43 | 0.39 | 0.46 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports in the Non-tourism industry of Human Capital Accumulation | B T | Gamma (0.06,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Non-tourism Industry | Π T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.38 | 0.34 | 0.41 | ||
Depreciation Rate of Human Capital | δH | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Tourism Productivity | φP, | T | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.11 | |
Spill-over Effect of Tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Tourism Productivity | φC, | T | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | |
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Non-tourism Productivity | φP, | NT | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.11 | 0.11 | 0.11 | |
Spill-over Effect of Non-tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φ T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Non-tourism Productivity | φC, | NT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.05 | |
Autoregressive Parameter | |||||||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | Ρ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.53 | 0.47 | 0.68 | ||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | ρZNNT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.99 | 0.99 | 0.10 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | ρZ P | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.03 | 0.02 | 0.04 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | ρZ | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.91 | 0.90 | 0.93 | ||
World Output | ρYrow | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.92 | 0.91 | 0.94 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | ρRER | Beta (0.78,0.20) | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.84 | ||
Land Supply Shock | ρLa | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.30 | 0.16 | 0.38 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | ρC, | T | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.85 | 0.78 | 0.90 | |
Non-tourism Imports | ρC, | NT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.86 | 0.84 | 0.86 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | ρH | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.82 | 0.74 | 0.94 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | ρP | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.10 | 0.99 | 1.00 | ||
Standard Deviation | εZT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.15 | ||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | |||||||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | εZNT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.14 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | εZP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | εZ | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.10 | 0.10 | 0.10 | ||
World Output | εYrow | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.12 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | εRER | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.11 | 0.10 | 0.11 | ||
Land Supply Shock | εLa | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.36 | 0.31 | 0.42 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | εCM, | T | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.20 | 0.14 | 0.29 | |
Non-tourism Imports | εCM, | NT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.50 | 0.45 | 0.52 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | εH | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.14 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | εP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.25 | 0.22 | 0.27 |
Prior Distribution | Posterior Distribution | 90% Interval | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Low | High | ||||||
Structure Parameter Discount Rate | β | Beta (0.95, 0.00) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
Physical Capital Depreciation Rate | δ | Beta (0.02,0.00) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Tourism Industry | α1 | Beta (0.37,0.10) | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.58 | ||
Output Elasticity of Human Capital in the Tourism Industry | α2 | Beta (0.42,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Non-tourism Industry | α3 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.66 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Public Service Industry | α4 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.71 | ||
Habit Persistent | h | Beta (0.85,0.01) | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.88 | ||
Elasticity of Leisure | ν1 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.97 | ||
Elasticity of Private Land | ν2 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 2.15 | 2.13 | 2.19 | ||
Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution | σ | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.99 | 1.94 | 2.12 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism, Non-tourism Goods and Public Services | θ1 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.41 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between FDI and Domestic Investment | θ2 | Gamma (1.51,0.10) | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.45 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism and Non-tourism Imports | θ3 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.59 | ||
Price Elasticity of Tourism Exports (Absolute) | θEX,T | Gamma (0.39,0.10) | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.41 | ||
Price Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports (Absolute) | θE, | NT | Gamma (0.20,0.10) | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.33 | |
Income Elasticity of Tourism Exports | ωT | Gamma (0.82,0.10) | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.11 | ||
Income Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports | ωNT | Gamma (0.27,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | ||
Autoregressive Coefficient of Return Rate | θtr | Beta (0.80,0.10) | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.95 | ||
Elasticity of Price in the Taylor Rule | θp | Gamma (1.71,0.10) | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.74 | ||
Elasticity of GDP in the Taylor Rule | θy | Gamma (0.13,0.05) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ||
Elasticity of Tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | aT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.52 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports of the Tourism Industry in Human Capital Accumulation | bT | Gamma (0.06,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Tourism Industry | πT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.38 | ||
Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | a T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.48 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports in the Non-tourism industry of Human Capital Accumulation | b T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Non-tourism Industry | Π T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.42 | ||
Depreciation Rate of Human Capital | δH | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Tourism Productivity | φP, | T | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
Spill-over Effect of Tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Tourism Productivity | φC, | T | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Non-tourism Productivity | φP, | NT | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | |
Spill-over Effect of Non-tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | Φ T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Non-tourism Productivity | φC, | NT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Autoregressive Parameter | |||||||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | Ρ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.70 | ||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | ρZ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.93 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | ρ P | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | ρZ | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.90 | ||
World Output | ρYrow | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.99 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | ρRER | Beta (0.78,0.20) | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.84 | ||
Land Supply Shock | ρLa | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.37 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | ρCM, | T | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.90 | |
Non-tourism Imports | ρCM, | NT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.85 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | ρH | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.93 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | ρP | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.00 | ||
Standard Deviation | εZT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.14 | ||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | |||||||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | εZNT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.16 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | εZP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.16 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | εZ | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.15 | ||
World Output | εYrow | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | εRER | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.12 | ||
Land Supply Shock | εLa | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.40 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | εCM, | T | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.28 | |
Non-tourism Imports | εCM, | NT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.51 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | εH | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.15 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | εP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.27 | ||
Low | High | ||||||
Structure Parameter Discount Rate | β | Beta (0.95, 0.00) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
Physical Capital Depreciation Rate | δ | Beta (0.02,0.00) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Tourism Industry | α1 | Beta (0.37,0.10) | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.58 | ||
Output Elasticity of Human Capital in the Tourism Industry | α2 | Beta (0.42,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Non-tourism Industry | α3 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.66 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Public Service Industry | α4 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.71 | ||
Habit Persistent | h | Beta (0.85,0.01) | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.88 | ||
Elasticity of Leisure | ν1 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.97 | ||
Elasticity of Private Land | ν2 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 2.15 | 2.13 | 2.19 | ||
Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution | σ | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.99 | 1.94 | 2.12 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism, Non-tourism Goods and Public Services | θ1 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.41 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between FDI and Domestic Investment | θ2 | Gamma (1.51,0.10) | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.45 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism and Non-tourism Imports | θ3 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.59 | ||
Price Elasticity of Tourism Exports (Absolute) | θEX,T | Gamma (0.39,0.10) | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.41 | ||
Price Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports (Absolute) | θE, | NT | Gamma (0.20,0.10) | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.33 | |
Income Elasticity of Tourism Exports | ωT | Gamma (0.82,0.10) | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.11 | ||
Income Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports | ωNT | Gamma (0.27,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | ||
Autoregressive Coefficient of Return Rate | θtr | Beta (0.80,0.10) | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.95 | ||
Elasticity of Price in the Taylor Rule | θp | Gamma (1.71,0.10) | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.74 | ||
Elasticity of GDP in the Taylor Rule | θy | Gamma (0.13,0.05) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ||
Elasticity of Tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | aT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.52 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports of the Tourism Industry in Human Capital Accumulation | bT | Gamma (0.06,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Tourism Industry | πT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.38 | ||
Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | a T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.48 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports in the Non-tourism industry of Human Capital Accumulation | b T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Non-tourism Industry | Π T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.42 | ||
Depreciation Rate of Human Capital | δH | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Tourism Productivity | φP, | T | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
Spill-over Effect of Tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Tourism Productivity | φC, | T | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Non-tourism Productivity | φP, | NT | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | |
Spill-over Effect of Non-tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | Φ T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Non-tourism Productivity | φC, | NT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Autoregressive Parameter | |||||||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | Ρ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.70 | ||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | ρZ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.93 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | ρ P | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | ρZ | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.90 | ||
World Output | ρYrow | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.99 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | ρRER | Beta (0.78,0.20) | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.84 | ||
Land Supply Shock | ρLa | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.37 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | ρCM, | T | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.90 | |
Non-tourism Imports | ρCM, | NT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.85 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | ρH | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.93 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | ρP | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.00 | ||
Standard Deviation | εZT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.14 | ||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | |||||||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | εZNT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.16 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | εZP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.16 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | εZ | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.15 | ||
World Output | εYrow | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | εRER | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.12 | ||
Land Supply Shock | εLa | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.40 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | εCM, | T | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.28 | |
Non-tourism Imports | εCM, | NT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.51 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | εH | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.15 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | εP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
Low | High | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Structure Parameter Discount Rate | β | Beta (0.95, 0.00) | 0.95 | 0.95 | 0.95 | ||
Physical Capital Depreciation Rate | δ | Beta (0.02,0.00) | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.03 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Tourism Industry | α1 | Beta (0.37,0.10) | 0.52 | 0.50 | 0.58 | ||
Output Elasticity of Human Capital in the Tourism Industry | α2 | Beta (0.42,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.03 | 0.09 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Non-tourism Industry | α3 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.60 | 0.57 | 0.66 | ||
Output Elasticity of Physical Capital in the Public Service Industry | α4 | Beta (0.63,0.10) | 0.65 | 0.62 | 0.71 | ||
Habit Persistent | h | Beta (0.85,0.01) | 0.88 | 0.87 | 0.88 | ||
Elasticity of Leisure | ν1 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.93 | 1.90 | 1.97 | ||
Elasticity of Private Land | ν2 | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 2.15 | 2.13 | 2.19 | ||
Elasticity of Intertemporal Substitution | σ | Gamma (2.00,0.10) | 1.99 | 1.94 | 2.12 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism, Non-tourism Goods and Public Services | θ1 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.41 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between FDI and Domestic Investment | θ2 | Gamma (1.51,0.10) | 1.41 | 1.38 | 1.45 | ||
Substitute Elasticity between Tourism and Non-tourism Imports | θ3 | Gamma (0.40,0.10) | 0.57 | 0.52 | 0.59 | ||
Price Elasticity of Tourism Exports (Absolute) | θEX,T | Gamma (0.39,0.10) | 0.34 | 0.32 | 0.41 | ||
Price Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports (Absolute) | θE, | NT | Gamma (0.20,0.10) | 0.30 | 0.28 | 0.33 | |
Income Elasticity of Tourism Exports | ωT | Gamma (0.82,0.10) | 1.05 | 0.97 | 1.11 | ||
Income Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports | ωNT | Gamma (0.27,0.10) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.08 | ||
Autoregressive Coefficient of Return Rate | θtr | Beta (0.80,0.10) | 0.93 | 0.90 | 0.95 | ||
Elasticity of Price in the Taylor Rule | θp | Gamma (1.71,0.10) | 1.70 | 1.68 | 1.74 | ||
Elasticity of GDP in the Taylor Rule | θy | Gamma (0.13,0.05) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | ||
Elasticity of Tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | aT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.49 | 0.44 | 0.52 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports of the Tourism Industry in Human Capital Accumulation | bT | Gamma (0.06,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Tourism Industry | πT | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.38 | ||
Elasticity of Non-tourism Exports in Human Capital Accumulation | a T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.48 | ||
Elasticity of Non-exports in the Non-tourism industry of Human Capital Accumulation | b T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.08 | ||
Scale Effect of Human Capital Accumulated by the Non-tourism Industry | Π T | Gamma (0.30,0.10) | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.42 | ||
Depreciation Rate of Human Capital | δH | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.07 | ||
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Tourism Productivity | φP, | T | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.13 | |
Spill-over Effect of Tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | φT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.07 | 0.06 | 0.09 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Tourism Productivity | φC, | T | Gamma (0.04,0.01) | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Spill-over Effect of Public Service on Non-tourism Productivity | φP, | NT | Gamma (0.10,0.01) | 0.13 | 0.13 | 0.15 | |
Spill-over Effect of Non-tourism Physical Capital on its Productivity | Φ T | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.03 | 0.03 | 0.04 | ||
Congestion Effect of Physical Capital on Non-tourism Productivity | φC, | NT | Gamma (0.05,0.01) | 0.05 | 0.05 | 0.06 | |
Autoregressive Parameter | |||||||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | Ρ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.55 | 0.48 | 0.70 | ||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | ρZ T | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.93 | 0.92 | 0.93 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | ρ P | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.07 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | ρZ | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.97 | 0.93 | 0.90 | ||
World Output | ρYrow | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.98 | 0.94 | 0.99 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | ρRER | Beta (0.78,0.20) | 0.84 | 0.83 | 0.84 | ||
Land Supply Shock | ρLa | Beta (0.52,0.20) | 0.31 | 0.21 | 0.37 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | ρCM, | T | Beta (0.51,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.82 | 0.90 | |
Non-tourism Imports | ρCM, | NT | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.82 | 0.80 | 0.85 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | ρH | Beta (0.53,0.20) | 0.87 | 0.79 | 0.93 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | ρP | Beta (0.50,0.20) | 0.99 | 0.98 | 1.00 | ||
Standard Deviation | εZT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.14 | ||
Productivity of the Tourism Industry | |||||||
Productivity of the Non-Tourism Industry | εZNT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.15 | 0.14 | 0.16 | ||
Productivity of the Public Service Industry | εZP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.16 | ||
Total Productivity of all Industries | εZ | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.12 | 0.15 | ||
World Output | εYrow | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.16 | ||
Real Exchange Rate | εRER | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.12 | 0.11 | 0.12 | ||
Land Supply Shock | εLa | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.34 | 0.31 | 0.40 | ||
Tourism Imports Price | εCM, | T | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.18 | 0.14 | 0.28 | |
Non-tourism Imports | εCM, | NT | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.48 | 0.45 | 0.51 | |
Human Capital Accumulation Shock | εH | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.14 | 0.13 | 0.15 | ||
Public Service Production Shock | εP | IGamma (0.15, 0.25) | 0.24 | 0.21 | 0.27 |
France | Germany | Japan | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Variables | Period | Shock | 90% C. I. | Shock | 90% C. I. | Shock | 90% C. I. |
Tourism Productivity | 1 | 10.00 | [9.37, 10.00] | 10.00 | [9.30, 10.00] | 10.00 | [8.85, 10.00] |
5 | 2.62 | [1.75, 3.26] | 2.55 | [1.67, 3.14] | 2.32 | [1.59, 3.04] | |
10 | 0.58 | [0.11, 0.85] | 0.43 | [0.08, 0.74] | 0.40 | [0.08, 0.68] | |
Tourism Price | 1 | −14.34 | [−12.65, −16.07] | −14.18 | [−12.25, −15.73] | −15.94 | [−12.79, −16.37] |
5 | −2.44 | [−1.58, −3.62] | −2.17 | [−1.33, −3.16] | −2.28 | [−1.41, −3.37] | |
10 | −0.67 | [0.00, −1,45] | −0.51 | [0.00, −1,23] | −0.53 | [0.01, −1,36] | |
Tourism Exports | 1 | 6.93 | [6.15, 7.67] | 6.05 | [5.63, 6.86] | 6.47 | [5.881 7.56] |
5 | 1.57 | [0.79, 2.82] | 1.36 | [0.64, 2.48] | 1.48 | [0.73, 2.55] | |
10 | 0.48 | [0.06, 0.75] | 0.38 | [0.03, 0.72] | 0.34 | [0.02, 0.67] | |
Tourism Consumption | 1 | 6.66 | [5.86, 7.25] | 6.23 | [5.53, 7.04] | 6.59 | [5.87, 7.23] |
5 | 1.42 | [0.63, 2.57] | 1.55 | [0.70, 2.63] | 1.72 | [0.83, 2.82] | |
10 | 0.52 | [0.14, 0.86] | 0.62 | [0.17, 0.91] | 0.75 | [0.23, 0.99] | |
Tourism Investments | 1 | −13.33 | [−15.47, −12.35] | −12.63 | [−14.89, −11.33] | −11.86 | [−13.68, −11.42] |
5 | 2.84 | [−1.35, 4.63] | 2.45 | [−1.78, 4.51] | 2.17 | [−2.57, 4.02] | |
10 | 0.35 | [−2.04, 2.47] | 0.51 | [−2.38, 2.83] | 0.41 | [−2.15, 2.17] | |
Tourism Value Added | 1 | 4.74 | [3.76, 6.15] | 4.04 | [3.23, 5.75] | 4.84 | [3.67, 6.43] |
5 | 0.55 | [0.23, 1.52] | 0.37 | [0.10, 1.12] | 0.58 | [0.31, 1.32] | |
10 | 0.36 | [−0.18, 0.82] | 0.29 | [−0.21, 0.78] | 0.49 | [−0.12, 0.95] | |
Human Capital | 1 | 0.05 | [0.04, 0.07] | 0.06 | [0.05, 0.07] | 0.05 | [0.04, 0.07] |
5 | 0.02 | [0.01, 0.04] | 0.03 | [0.02, 0.05] | 0.03 | [0.02, 0.04] | |
10 | 0.01 | [−0.02, 0.02] | 0.02 | [−0.01, 0.03] | 0.02 | [−0.01, 0.04] | |
Tourism Capital Spill-over | 1 | 10.88 | [8.53, 11.95] | 10.46 | [8.42, 11.43] | 10.16 | [8.24, 11.28] |
5 | 2.33 | [1.36, 3.28] | 2.18 | [1.24, 3.18] | 2.18 | [1.17, 3.24] | |
10 | 0.65 | [0.03, 1.06] | 0.54 | [−0.16, 0.82] | 0.58 | [−0.12, 0.85] | |
Non-tourism Price | 1 | −0.96 | [−1.38, −0.46] | −0.99 | [−1.40, −0.49] | −0.91 | [−1.31, −0.46] |
5 | −0.15 | [−0.52, 0.33] | −0.16 | [−0.52, 0.38] | −0.13 | [−0.51, 0.43] | |
10 | −0.04 | [−0.24, 0.47] | −0.03 | [−0.21, 0.49] | −0.07 | [−0.21, 0.49] | |
Non-tourism Exports | 1 | 0.34 | [0.20, 0.48] | 0.32 | [0.17, 0.44] | 0.36 | [0.23, 0.49] |
5 | 0.06 | [−0.13, 0.25] | 0.04 | [−0.15, 0.23] | 0.08 | [0.20, 0.48] | |
10 | 0.02 | [−0.17, 0.18] | 0.01 | [−0.17, 0.18] | 0.02 | [−0.15, 0.19] | |
Non-tourism Consumption | 1 | −0.47 | [−0.67, −0.23] | −0.52 | [−0.61, −0.28] | −0.49 | [−0.59, −0.24] |
5 | −0.15 | [−0.33, −0.02] | −0.13 | [−0.30, −0.04] | −0.18 | [−0.39, −0.05] | |
10 | −0.07 | [−0.20, 0.15] | −0.06 | [−0.16, 0.18] | −0.08 | [−0.17, 0.19] | |
Non-tourism Investments | 1 | −0.69 | [−0.93, −0.49] | −0.77 | [−0.97, −0.51] | −0.61 | [−0.96, −0.51] |
5 | −0.16 | [−0.35, −0.13] | −0.08 | [−0.32, −0.10] | −0.10 | [−0.35, −0.13] | |
10 | 0.03 | [−0.15, 0.18] | 0.01 | [−0.17, 0.16] | −0.02 | [−0.18, 0.12] | |
Non-tourism Value Added | 1 | 0.25 | [0.43, 0.13] | 0.29 | [0.47, 0.14] | 0.29 | [0.48, 0.16] |
5 | 0.05 | [−0.18, 0.18] | 0.05 | [−0.20, 0.21] | 0.05 | [−0.19, 0.22] | |
10 | 0.08 | [−0.21, 0.23] | 0.06 | [−0.17, 0.24] | 0.07 | [−0.16, 0.26] | |
Non-tourism Capital Spill-over | 1 | 0.58 | [0.27, 0.72] | 0.53 | [0.24, 0.68] | 0.58 | [0.24, 0.70] |
5 | 0.13 | [−0.05, 0.28] | 0.09 | [−0.14, 0.19] | 0.12 | [−0.11, 0.21] | |
10 | 0.04 | [−0.17, 0.20] | 0.03 | [−0.14, 0.16] | 0.04 | [−0.14, 0.18] | |
Public Goods Sector Value Added | 1 | 0.16 | [0.04, 0.33] | 0.12 | [−0.04, 0.32] | 0.13 | [−0.02, 0.34] |
5 | −0.17 | [−0.33, 0.08] | −0.09 | [−0.26, 0.12] | −0.14 | [−0.31, 0.09] | |
10 | −0.07 | [−0.17, 0.15] | −0.04 | [−0.15, 0.19] | −0.05 | [−0.15, 0.19] | |
GDP | 1 | 0.54 | [0.47, 0,68] | 0.56 | [0.52, 0,61] | 0.49 | [0.40, 0,52] |
5 | 0.28 | [−0.13, 0.34] | 0.23 | [−0.15, 0.32] | 0.30 | [−0.09, 0.34] | |
10 | 0.07 | [−0.17, 0.18] | 0.05 | [−0.18, 0.16] | 0.04 | [−0.19, 0.16] | |
Tourism Employment | 1 | 1.73 | [2.00, 1.53] | 1.85 | [2.13, 1.58] | 1.63 | [1.88, 1.52] |
5 | 0.62 | [0.44, 0.78] | 0.67 | [0.46, 0.80] | 0.43 | [0.46, 0.80] | |
10 | 0.05 | [−0.11, 0.16] | 0.06 | [−0.11, 0.16] | 0.04 | [−0.11, 0.16] | |
Non-tourism Employment | 1 | 0.65 | [0.57, 0.82] | 0.73 | [0.58, 0.89] | 0.70 | [0.59, 0.87] |
5 | 0.14 | [−0.09, 0.26] | 0.17 | [−0.07, 0.28] | 0.15 | [−0.06, 0.25] | |
10 | 0.03 | [−0.13, 0.18] | 0.02 | [−0.13, 0.13] | 0.03 | [−0.10, 0.13] | |
Public Goods Sector Employment | 1 | 0.68 | [0.58, 0.79] | 0.57 | [0.47, 0.66] | 0.59 | [0.48, 0.68] |
5 | 0.06 | [−0.11, 0.14] | 0.04 | [−0.09, 0.14] | 0.04 | [−0.07, 0.12] | |
10 | 0.03 | [−0.08, 0.15] | −0.01 | [−0.10, 0.10] | 0.02 | [−0.05, 0.11] | |
Unemployment | 1 | −4.76 | [−5.05, −4.33] | −4.82 | [−5.22, −4.40] | −4.53 | [−4.79, −4.38] |
5 | −1.05 | [−1.43, −0.77] | −0.93 | [−1.32, −0.70] | −0.90 | [−1.22, −0.71] | |
10 | −0.02 | [−0.13, 0.14] | −0.03 | [−0.11, 0.10] | −0.02 | [−0.10, 0.09] |
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Alaminos, D.; León-Gómez, A.; Sánchez-Serrano, J.R. A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability 2020, 12, 3635. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093635
Alaminos D, León-Gómez A, Sánchez-Serrano JR. A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability. 2020; 12(9):3635. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093635
Chicago/Turabian StyleAlaminos, David, Ana León-Gómez, and José Ramón Sánchez-Serrano. 2020. "A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth" Sustainability 12, no. 9: 3635. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093635
APA StyleAlaminos, D., León-Gómez, A., & Sánchez-Serrano, J. R. (2020). A DSGE-VAR Analysis for Tourism Development and Sustainable Economic Growth. Sustainability, 12(9), 3635. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12093635