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Sustainability
Volume 12
Issue 19
10.3390/su12198172
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Article

Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System?

by
Pu Liao
1,*,
Hui Su
1 and
Dragan Pamučar
2
1
China Institute for Actuarial Science/School of Insurance, Central University of Finance and Economics, Beijing 102206, China
2
Department of logistics, University of Defence, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Sustainability 2020, 12(19), 8172; https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198172
Submission received: 12 September 2020 / Revised: 30 September 2020 / Accepted: 30 September 2020 / Published: 3 October 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Operational Research Tools for Solving Sustainable Engineering Problems)
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Abstract

The sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System (CBPS) has been challenged by the ageing of the population and the decline in economic growth. This article establishes a Markov model for CBPS to examine whether the reforms, including ending the one-child policy and raising retirement the age, will shrink the negative income–expenditure gap. We find that the negative income–expenditure gap will destroy CBPS in the future in the absence of fiscal transfer or reform. Ending the one-child policy will increase the number of contributors and then reduce the gap in the short term but will worsen the gap in the long term. Raising the retirement age will have several positive effects overall while increasing expenditures in certain periods. The contributions of this article are describing CBPS in detail and establishing a precise model to analyze the effectiveness of reforms.
Keywords: China’s Basic Pension System (CBPS); Markov model; ending one-child policy; raising retirement age China’s Basic Pension System (CBPS); Markov model; ending one-child policy; raising retirement age

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MDPI and ACS Style

Liao, P.; Su, H.; Pamučar, D. Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System? Sustainability 2020, 12, 8172. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198172

AMA Style

Liao P, Su H, Pamučar D. Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System? Sustainability. 2020; 12(19):8172. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198172

Chicago/Turabian Style

Liao, Pu, Hui Su, and Dragan Pamučar. 2020. "Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System?" Sustainability 12, no. 19: 8172. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198172

APA Style

Liao, P., Su, H., & Pamučar, D. (2020). Will Ending the One-Child Policy and Raising the Retirement Age Enhance the Sustainability of China’s Basic Pension System? Sustainability, 12(19), 8172. https://doi.org/10.3390/su12198172

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