Influential Factors Regarding Carbon Emission Intensity in China: A Spatial Econometric Analysis from a Provincial Perspective

Emission reduction strategies based on provinces are key for China to mitigate its carbon emission intensity (CEI). As such, it is valuable to analyze the driving mechanism of CEI from a provincial view, and to explore a coordinated emission mitigation mechanism. Based on spatial econometrics, this study conducts a spatial-temporal effect analysis on CEI, and constructs a Spatial Durbin Model on the Panel data (SDPM) of CEI and its eight influential factors: GDP, urbanization rate (URB), industrial structure (INS), energy structure (ENS), energy intensity (ENI), technological innovation (TEL), openness level (OPL), and foreign direct investment (FDI). The main findings are as follows: (1) overall, there is a significant and upward trend of the spatial autocorrelation of CEI on 30 provinces in China. (2) The spatial spillover effect of CEI is positive, with a coefficient of 0.083. (3) The direct effects of ENI, ENS and TEL are significantly positive in descending order, while INS and GDP are significantly negative. The indirect effects of URB and ENS are significantly positive, while GDP, ENI, OPL and FDI are significantly negative in descending order. Economic and energy-related emission reduction measures are still crucial to the achievement of CEI reduction targets for provinces in China.