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Open AccessArticle

Uncertainty Assessment in Drought Severities for the Cheongmicheon Watershed Using Multiple GCMs and the Reliability Ensemble Averaging Method

Department of Civil Engineering, Seoul National University of Science and Technology, Seoul 01811, Korea
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Sustainability 2019, 11(16), 4283; https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164283
Received: 23 May 2019 / Revised: 1 August 2019 / Accepted: 4 August 2019 / Published: 8 August 2019
The consequence of climate variations on hydrology remains the greatest challenging aspect of managing water resources. This research focused on the quantitative approach of the uncertainty in variations of climate influence on drought pattern of the Cheongmicheon watershed by assigning weights to General Circulation Models (GCMs) based on model performances. Three drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Streamflow Drought Index (SDI) are used for three durations 3-, 6- and 9-months. This study included 27 GCMs from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and considered three future periods (2011–2040, 2041–2070 and 2071–2100) of the concentration scenario of Representation Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5. Compared to SPEI and SDI, SPI identified more droughts in severe or extreme categories of shorter time scales than SPEI or SDI. The results suggested that the discrepancy in temperature plays a significant part in characterizing droughts. The Reliability Ensemble Averaging (REA) technique was used to give a mathematical approximation of associated uncertainty range and reliability of future climate change predictions. The uncertainty range and reliability of Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) varied among GCMs and total uncertainty ranges were between 50% and 200%. This study provides the approach for realistic projections by incorporating model performance ensemble averaging based on weights from RMSE. View Full-Text
Keywords: climate change; general circulation model; reliability ensemble averaging; uncertainty; drought index climate change; general circulation model; reliability ensemble averaging; uncertainty; drought index
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MDPI and ACS Style

Abdulai, P.J.; Chung, E.-S. Uncertainty Assessment in Drought Severities for the Cheongmicheon Watershed Using Multiple GCMs and the Reliability Ensemble Averaging Method. Sustainability 2019, 11, 4283. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164283

AMA Style

Abdulai PJ, Chung E-S. Uncertainty Assessment in Drought Severities for the Cheongmicheon Watershed Using Multiple GCMs and the Reliability Ensemble Averaging Method. Sustainability. 2019; 11(16):4283. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164283

Chicago/Turabian Style

Abdulai, Patricia J.; Chung, Eun-Sung. 2019. "Uncertainty Assessment in Drought Severities for the Cheongmicheon Watershed Using Multiple GCMs and the Reliability Ensemble Averaging Method" Sustainability 11, no. 16: 4283. https://doi.org/10.3390/su11164283

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