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World Electric Vehicle Journal is published by MDPI from Volume 9 issue 1 (2018). Articles in this Issue were published by The World Electric Vehicle Association (WEVA) and its member the European Association for e-Mobility (AVERE), the Electric Drive Transportation Association (EDTA), and the Electric Vehicle Association of Asia Pacific (EVAAP). They are hosted by MDPI on mdpi.com as a courtesy and upon agreement with AVERE.
Open AccessArticle

Using dynamic scenario analyses to evaluate how market factors could shape San Diego California New Car buyer’s interest in purchasing a Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV)

Plug-In Hybrid and Electric Vehicle Research Center of the Institute of Transportation Studies at the University of California at Davis. 1605 Tilia, Suite #100, Davis, CA 95616
World Electr. Veh. J. 2013, 6(4), 986-995; https://doi.org/10.3390/wevj6040986
Published: 27 December 2013
PDF [287 KB, uploaded 18 May 2018]

Abstract

This analysis creates three temporally sequential hypothetical future time periods for a PEV market. In these scenarios, we present six factors which are likely to influence PEV ownership. These factors are the incremental cost of PEVs, the size of vehicles available for purchase, the vehicle manufacturers producing PEVs, vehicle turnover, the cost to install home charging infrastructure and the authority to install charging infrastructure at a primary residence. In each time period the characteristics of the vehicle and consumer market change to capture the dynamics of vehicle supply and new car buyers. Results from a mixed-method questionnaire of 470 San Diego California residents is matched with the hypothetical scenarios created for this analysis, which provides a baseline measure of how interest in PEVs might evolve over time for San Diego CA new car buyers. Incremental changes from the baseline conditions in each of the factors illustrate how different strategies such as: price reduction, larger vehicles offered for sale, introduction of new makes producing PEVs, and workplace charging infrastructure, might play a role in changing the pool of San Diego CA new car buyers who are interested in purchasing a PEV.
This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited (CC BY 4.0).
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Davies, J. Using dynamic scenario analyses to evaluate how market factors could shape San Diego California New Car buyer’s interest in purchasing a Plug-in Electric Vehicle (PEV). World Electr. Veh. J. 2013, 6, 986-995.

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