Scenarios of Carbon Capture and Storage Importance in the Process of Energy System Transformation in Poland

One of the most important issues in the coming years will be the decarbonisation of the European Union member states’ energy systems. The majority of the abstract requires modification. I propose that the first sentence of the abstract in the manuscript should better emphasize the formulation of the problem. The remaining part and any corrections were made by the author.Scenarios of the importance of CCS in the process of transformation of energy systems in Poland. One of the most important issues in the coming years will be the transformation of the energy systems of the European Union’s member states, which will require the development of appropriate technological solutions. The research presented here analyses the importance of CCS in energy transformation. This article proposes adapting the energy transformation method to the structure of the energy mix and conditions prevailing in a specific country. Poland was adopted as an example for analysis due to its exceptionally complicated situation, taking into account the structure of energy production. For this purpose, an expert opinion survey was conducted. Both measurable variables, such as the volume of CO₂ emissions and EU ETS prices, and a qualitative variable, i.e., the impact of the political environment on the development of CCS, were introduced to the constructed model. The model allowed us to construct three scenarios describing alternative visions for the future development of CCS: optimistic, pessimistic, and neutral, taking into account different conditions in which CCS can develop. The use of fuzzy sets allowed us to eliminate the most serious drawback of planning scenarios based on expert knowledge, which is the subjectivity of their judgments. This research showed that stable conditions of the political environment and predictable legal regulations will be crucial for the application of CCS in the Polish energy sector. The prepared scenarios will enable a quick response and accurate decisions under various conditions of the turbulent environment. This will facilitate the preparation of energy strategies. The scenarios indicate what combinations of variables, under given environmental conditions, of CCS will be of great importance in the energy transformation, and when it may give way to other technologies. In addition, the scenarios, and especially their visualisation, are extremely valuable for stakeholders, because they will allow them to observe the potential development of the situation under known conditions of the political environment, prices, and CO₂ emissions. They enable understanding the dependence of the importance of CCS in the changing environment. They also enable the detection of critical points for the development of CCS, which, as a result of recent geopolitical events, may be of key importance in the near future for ensuring the energy and military security of Poland and the EU.