Next Article in Journal
Modelling of Spouted and Spout-Fluid Beds: Key for Their Successful Scale Up
Previous Article in Journal
Optimal and Learning-Based Demand Response Mechanism for Electric Water Heater System
 
Search for Articles:
Title / Keyword
Author / Affiliation
Journal
Article Type
 
 
Advanced Search
 
Section
Special Issue
Volume
Issue
Number
Page
Journals
Energies
Volume 10
Issue 11
10.3390/en10111727
energies-logo
Submit to this Journal Review for this Journal Edit a Special Issue
► Article Menu

Article Menu

share announcement question_answer thumb_up
...
textsms
...
Article

Devising Hourly Forecasting Solutions Regarding Electricity Consumption in the Case of Commercial Center Type Consumers

by
Alexandru Pîrjan
1,*,
Simona-Vasilica Oprea
2,
George Căruțașu
1,
Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu
1,3,
Adela Bâra
2 and
Cristina Coculescu
1
1
Department of Informatics, Statistics and Mathematics, Romanian-American University, Expoziției 1B, Bucharest 012101, Romania
2
Department of Economic Informatics and Cybernetics, The Bucharest Academy of Economic Studies, Romana Square 6, Bucharest 010374, Romania
3
Department of Mathematics-Informatics, University Politehnica of Bucharest, Splaiul Independenței 313, Bucharest 060042, Romania
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Energies 2017, 10(11), 1727; https://doi.org/10.3390/en10111727
Received: 24 September 2017 / Revised: 14 October 2017 / Accepted: 25 October 2017 / Published: 27 October 2017
(This article belongs to the Section A: Electrical Engineering)
View Full-Text Download PDF
Browse Figures

Abstract

This paper focuses on an important issue regarding the forecasting of the hourly energy consumption in the case of large electricity non-household consumers that account for a significant percentage of the whole electricity consumption, the accurate forecasting being a key-factor in achieving energy efficiency. In order to devise the forecasting solutions, we have developed a series of dynamic neural networks for solving nonlinear time series problems, based on the non-linear autoregressive (NAR) and non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) models. In both cases, we have used large datasets comprising the hourly energy consumption recorded by the smart metering device from a commercial center type of consumer (a large hypermarket), while in the NARX case we have used supplementary temperature and time stamps datasets. Of particular interest was to research and obtain an optimal mix between the training algorithm (Levenberg-Marquardt, Bayesian Regularization, Scaled Conjugate Gradient), the hidden number of neurons and the delay parameter. Using performance metrics and forecasting scenarios, we have obtained results that highlight an increased accuracy of the developed forecasting solutions. The developed hourly consumption forecasting solutions can bring significant benefits to both the consumers and electricity suppliers. View Full-Text
Keywords: energy consumption; forecasting solutions; large non-household consumers; artificial neural networks; non-linear autoregressive (NAR) model; non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model; Levenberg-Marquardt (LM); Bayesian Regularization (BR); Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG) energy consumption; forecasting solutions; large non-household consumers; artificial neural networks; non-linear autoregressive (NAR) model; non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model; Levenberg-Marquardt (LM); Bayesian Regularization (BR); Scaled Conjugate Gradient (SCG)
►▼ Show Figures

Graphical abstract

This is an open access article distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution License which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited

Supplementary Material

SciFeed

Share and Cite

MDPI and ACS Style

Pîrjan, A.; Oprea, S.-V.; Căruțașu, G.; Petroșanu, D.-M.; Bâra, A.; Coculescu, C. Devising Hourly Forecasting Solutions Regarding Electricity Consumption in the Case of Commercial Center Type Consumers. Energies 2017, 10, 1727. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10111727

AMA Style

Pîrjan A, Oprea S-V, Căruțașu G, Petroșanu D-M, Bâra A, Coculescu C. Devising Hourly Forecasting Solutions Regarding Electricity Consumption in the Case of Commercial Center Type Consumers. Energies. 2017; 10(11):1727. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10111727

Chicago/Turabian Style

Pîrjan, Alexandru, Simona-Vasilica Oprea, George Căruțașu, Dana-Mihaela Petroșanu, Adela Bâra, and Cristina Coculescu. 2017. "Devising Hourly Forecasting Solutions Regarding Electricity Consumption in the Case of Commercial Center Type Consumers" Energies 10, no. 11: 1727. https://doi.org/10.3390/en10111727

Find Other Styles
Note that from the first issue of 2016, MDPI journals use article numbers instead of page numbers. See further details here.

Article Metrics

Article Access Map by Country/Region

1
Back to TopTop