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Article

Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Estimating Short- and Long-Term Elasticities via an ARDL Framework

by
Luis Varona Castillo
1,* and
Jorge R. Gonzales Castillo
2
1
Department of Business Management, Comillas Pontifical University, 28015 Madrid, Spain
2
Department of Economics, Public University of Piura, Piura 20002, Peru
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
J. Risk Financ. Manag. 2026, 19(7), 534; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19070534
Submission received: 14 May 2026 / Revised: 13 July 2026 / Accepted: 13 July 2026 / Published: 17 July 2026
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Advanced Studies in Empirical Macroeconomics and Finance)
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Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic and microeconomic factors influencing the valuation of Bitcoin (BTC) from January 2011 to December 2025 utilizing an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model. The empirical results provide robust evidence supporting a long-term equilibrium relationship (cointegration) among the variables. Furthermore, the findings reveal a procyclical dynamic aligned with the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, alongside significant positive influences from the network’s active address count and computing power hash rate. Conversely, global market volatility exerts a statistically significant negative impact on Bitcoin’s price trajectories.
Keywords: Bitcoin; monetary policy; volatility; hash rate; ARDL; portfolio Bitcoin; monetary policy; volatility; hash rate; ARDL; portfolio

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MDPI and ACS Style

Varona Castillo, L.; Gonzales Castillo, J.R. Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Estimating Short- and Long-Term Elasticities via an ARDL Framework. J. Risk Financ. Manag. 2026, 19, 534. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19070534

AMA Style

Varona Castillo L, Gonzales Castillo JR. Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Estimating Short- and Long-Term Elasticities via an ARDL Framework. Journal of Risk and Financial Management. 2026; 19(7):534. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19070534

Chicago/Turabian Style

Varona Castillo, Luis, and Jorge R. Gonzales Castillo. 2026. "Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Estimating Short- and Long-Term Elasticities via an ARDL Framework" Journal of Risk and Financial Management 19, no. 7: 534. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19070534

APA Style

Varona Castillo, L., & Gonzales Castillo, J. R. (2026). Bitcoin Price Dynamics: Estimating Short- and Long-Term Elasticities via an ARDL Framework. Journal of Risk and Financial Management, 19(7), 534. https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm19070534

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