Next Issue
Volume 15, January
Previous Issue
Volume 14, November
 
 

J. Risk Financial Manag., Volume 14, Issue 12 (December 2021) – 56 articles

Cover Story (view full-size image): Achieving excess returns with an active investment strategy is only possible if precise forecasts are made about future developments. In this study, 2761 ex-ante forecasts for the Dow Jones Industrial Index (DJI), the German Stock Market Index (DAX), and the Euro Stoxx 50 (SX5E) from various banks around the world are analyzed. It turns out that patterns that have been known for over 80 years still have a negative influence on the quality of forecasts up until today. Overall, an extensive analysis shows that forecasts are flawed and lag behind actual events, which is why we recommend that the analysts adapt their forecasting approach. View this paper.
  • Issues are regarded as officially published after their release is announced to the table of contents alert mailing list.
  • You may sign up for e-mail alerts to receive table of contents of newly released issues.
  • PDF is the official format for papers published in both, html and pdf forms. To view the papers in pdf format, click on the "PDF Full-text" link, and use the free Adobe Reader to open them.
Order results
Result details
Section
Select all
Export citation of selected articles as:
15 pages, 1542 KiB  
Communication
Trust, Transparency and Transnational Lessons from COVID-19
by Alistair Cole, Julien S. Baker and Dionysios Stivas
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(12), 607; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14120607 - 15 Dec 2021
Cited by 13 | Viewed by 5763
Abstract
The article engages in an exercise in reflexivity around trust and the COVID-19 pandemic. Common understandings of trust are mapped out across disciplinary boundaries and discussed in the cognitive fields in the medical and social sciences. While contexts matter in terms of the [...] Read more.
The article engages in an exercise in reflexivity around trust and the COVID-19 pandemic. Common understandings of trust are mapped out across disciplinary boundaries and discussed in the cognitive fields in the medical and social sciences. While contexts matter in terms of the understandings and uses made of concepts such as trust and transparency, comparison across academic disciplines and experiences drawn from country experiences allows general propositions to be formulated for further exploration. International health crises require efforts to rebuild trust, understood in a multidisciplinary sense as a relationship based on trusteeship, in the sense of mutual obligations in a global commons, where trust is a key public good. The most effective responses in a pandemic are joined up ones, where individuals (responsible for following guidelines) trust intermediaries (health professionals) and are receptive to messages (nudges) from the relevant governmental authorities. Hence, the distinction between hard medical and soft social science blurs when patients and citizens are required to be active participants in combatting the virus. Building on the diagnosis of a crisis of trust (in the field of health security and across multiple layers of governance), the article renews with calls to restore trust by enhancing transparency. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

7 pages, 213 KiB  
Article
The Initial Coin Offering (ICO) Process: Regulation and Risks
by Oksana A. Karpenko, Tatiana K. Blokhina and Lali V. Chebukhanova
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(12), 599; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14120599 - 12 Dec 2021
Cited by 7 | Viewed by 5759
Abstract
ICOs are very attractive for investors and issuers. ICOs allow funding raising in exchange for cryptographically secure tokens, which are a means of paying for future projects or services. However, there is insignificant regulation of this process all over the world. Some countries [...] Read more.
ICOs are very attractive for investors and issuers. ICOs allow funding raising in exchange for cryptographically secure tokens, which are a means of paying for future projects or services. However, there is insignificant regulation of this process all over the world. Some countries have banned crypto assets; others have allowed the free use of tokens but do not give them official status. In this paper, the authors present an overview of the legal regulation of ICOs in different countries, dividing them into three groups: in the first group are the countries with developed legal norms and rules for conducting ICO, they have the subsequent circulation of tokens on their territory; in the second group are the countries that are most friendly to ICOs; the third group of countries has a wait-and-see attitude. The author connect the insufficient law regulation and risks of ICOs in different countries. The types of ICO risks are divided into three main categories: financial, technical, and analytical. The main ways to reduce these risks, depending on their types, are highlighted in this study. They are connected with the improvement of the legal regulation of the publication of a White Paper, the KYC procedure, and the involvement of escrow agents. Full article
(This article belongs to the Section Risk)
14 pages, 566 KiB  
Article
A New Approach for Risk of Corporate Bankruptcy Assessment during the COVID-19 Pandemic
by Katarzyna Boratyńska
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(12), 590; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14120590 - 7 Dec 2021
Cited by 12 | Viewed by 3736
Abstract
The consequences of COVID-19 will aggravate existing multidimensional risks and reveal new ones. The research gap allows contributing to recognizing the exogenous risk factors of corporate bankruptcy during the COVID-19 pandemic in EU countries. This study aims at revealing how to evaluate the [...] Read more.
The consequences of COVID-19 will aggravate existing multidimensional risks and reveal new ones. The research gap allows contributing to recognizing the exogenous risk factors of corporate bankruptcy during the COVID-19 pandemic in EU countries. This study aims at revealing how to evaluate the risk of corporate bankruptcy phenomenon in the COVID-19 times. The question arises as to whether Schumpeter’s creative destruction approach is still accurate. The article concentrates on implementing the fsQCA (fuzzy set Qualitative Comparative Analysis) method to identify and evaluate the main exogenous drivers of corporate bankruptcy in EU countries based on Fragile States Index data. This new approach focuses on fuzzy sets theory. The fsQCA method is a globally recognized alternative to quantitative analysis (in which the causal complexity is ignored) and qualitative methods for examining individual cases (which do not have the tools to generalize on their basis). The research indicates and examines the main external factors that would increase the risk of corporate bankruptcy in EU countries: namely, economic decline, uneven economic development, unemployment rate, demographic pressure, and government debt. The study discusses the influence of zombie companies on economies during the COVID-19 pandemic. Identifying risk factors that determine the threat of corporate bankruptcy may constitute practical recommendations for business and restructuring practitioners, financial institutions, and banking and public sector representatives in creating warning and recovery measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Political Risk in Financial Markets)
Show Figures

Figure 1

4 pages, 203 KiB  
Editorial
COVID-19: An Economic or Social Disease? Implications for Disadvantaged Populations
by Hijrah Nasir, Valentin Navel, Julien S Baker, Rashmi Supriya, Alistair Cole, Yang Gao and Frederic Dutheil
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(12), 587; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14120587 - 6 Dec 2021
Cited by 2 | Viewed by 1728
Abstract
The world is still struggling against the coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic [...] Full article
13 pages, 266 KiB  
Article
Trust, Transparency and Welfare: Third-Sector Adult Social Care Delivery and the COVID-19 Pandemic in the UK
by Paul Chaney and Christala Sophocleous
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(12), 572; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14120572 - 26 Nov 2021
Cited by 3 | Viewed by 2673
Abstract
Since the move to quasi-federalism in the 1990s, different territorial welfare mixes on adult social care (ASC) have emerged in the four nations of the UK. This study explores policy actors’ views on their effectiveness in the pandemic with reference to the role [...] Read more.
Since the move to quasi-federalism in the 1990s, different territorial welfare mixes on adult social care (ASC) have emerged in the four nations of the UK. This study explores policy actors’ views on their effectiveness in the pandemic with reference to the role of institutions, trust and transparency. The analysis is based on extensive secondary data analysis and primary interviews with key individuals involved in the delivery and regulation of ASC. The findings highlight how the pandemic exposed existing pathologies and the need for reform in all four systems. Notably, the analysis shows how the present market-based tendering systems for allocating ASC contracts undermine inter-personal and institutional trust and compromise care quality. The wider significance of this lies in showing the pivotal role of trust during the emergency and that post-pandemic welfare reform needs to embed trust-building measures to deliver effective care. Full article
14 pages, 438 KiB  
Article
Behavioral and Mental Responses towards the COVID-19 Pandemic among Chinese Older Adults: A Cross-Sectional Study
by Wei Liang, Yanping Duan, Min Yang, Borui Shang, Chun Hu, Yanping Wang and Julien Steven Baker
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(12), 568; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14120568 - 24 Nov 2021
Cited by 4 | Viewed by 1858
Abstract
The novel COVID-19 pandemic spread quickly and continuously influenced global societies. As a vulnerable population that accounted for the highest percentage of deaths from the pandemic, older adults have experienced huge life-altering challenges and increased risks of mental problems during the pandemic. Empirical [...] Read more.
The novel COVID-19 pandemic spread quickly and continuously influenced global societies. As a vulnerable population that accounted for the highest percentage of deaths from the pandemic, older adults have experienced huge life-altering challenges and increased risks of mental problems during the pandemic. Empirical evidence is needed to develop effective strategies to promote preventive measures and mitigate the adverse psychological impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. This study aimed to investigate the behavioral responses (i.e., preventive behaviors, physical activity, fruit and vegetable consumption) and mental responses (i.e., depression and loneliness) towards the COVID-19 pandemic among Chinese older adults. A further aim was to identify the associations among demographics, behavioral responses, and mental responses. Using a convenience sampling approach, 516 older adults were randomly recruited from five cities of Hubei province in China. Results of the cross-sectional survey showed that 11.7% of participants did not adhere to the WHO recommended preventive measures, while 37.6% and 8.3% of participants decreased physical activity and fruit–vegetable consumption respectively. For mental responses, 30.8% and 69.2% of participants indicated significantly depressive symptoms and severe loneliness, respectively. Participants’ behavioral and mental responses differed significantly in several demographics, such as age group, living situation, marital status, education levels, household income, medical conditions, and perceived health status. Demographic correlates and behavioral responses could significantly predicate the mental response with small-to-moderate effect sizes. This is the first study to investigate the characteristics of behavioral and mental responses of Chinese older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic. Research findings may give new insights into future developments of effective interventions and policies to promote health among older adults in the fight against the pandemic. Full article
Show Figures

Figure 1

18 pages, 850 KiB  
Article
Post-Acquisition Performance of Emerging Market Firms: A Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Acquisitions in India
by Arindam Das
J. Risk Financial Manag. 2021, 14(12), 567; https://doi.org/10.3390/jrfm14120567 - 24 Nov 2021
Cited by 1 | Viewed by 3143
Abstract
M&A performance is a multifaceted, compound construct with no overarching factor that captures all different dimensions. This paper examines the concept of acquisition performance and proposes a model that links firm-level factors and transaction parameters with firms’ short-term and long-term performance, extending to [...] Read more.
M&A performance is a multifaceted, compound construct with no overarching factor that captures all different dimensions. This paper examines the concept of acquisition performance and proposes a model that links firm-level factors and transaction parameters with firms’ short-term and long-term performance, extending to financial-, market- and innovation measures. Building on past empirical studies on the influence of various factors on M&A performance, a multi-dimensional structural equation model has been developed and it has been tested with a dataset on acquisitions in the Indian technology sector over a period of ten years. The results suggest that: (a) smaller acquirers with higher book value and leveraged firms demonstrate better long-term performance; (b) contrary to established understanding, short-term market returns are not influenced by deal parameters; (c) majority stake purchases show relatively lesser gains—suggesting the possible presence of post-acquisition integration issues and, (d) acquirers with high intangible assets continue to do well on innovation performance post-acquisition. By indicating situations and conditions under which an acquisition would potentially lead to a performance gain for the acquirer, these results provide significant insight to practitioners pursuing M&As for growth opportunities. Full article
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Risk Analysis for Corporate Finance)
Show Figures

Figure 1

Previous Issue
Next Issue
Back to TopTop