Grey System Theory in the Study of Medical Tourism Industry and Its Economic Impact
Abstract
:1. Introduction
2. Methodology
2.1. Literatures Review on Grey System Theory
2.2. The GM (0,N) Model
2.3. Grey Relational Analysis
2.3.1. Traditional Grey Relational Grade
- , ,
- is the distinguishing coefficient, , normally this value is taken as 0.5.
2.3.2. The GM (1,1) Model
2.3.3. DGM (1,1) Model
2.3.4. Evaluation of the Capability of the Proposed Model
2.4. Data Preparation
3. Results
4. Discussion
5. Conclusions
Author Contributions
Funding
Conflicts of Interest
References
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Evaluated factors | Measurements | Variable Rename | Destinations | |||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thailand | Singapore | Malaysia | South Korea | India | Taiwan | |||
Tourism resources | Number of international tourist arrivals (1000 million persons) [53] 2017) | X1 | 35,592 | 13,903 | 25,948 | 13,336 | 15,543 | 10,740 |
Number of low-cost airlines companies [54] | X2 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 1 | |
Travel and Tourism Competitiveness Index [55] | X3 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 4.3 | |
Healthcare resource and medical quality | Number of physicians (per 1000 people) (2017) [56] | X4 | 0.8 (2017) | 2.3 (2016) | 1.5 (2015) | 3.7 (2017) | 0.8 (2017) | 2.2 |
Current Health Expenditure per capita $US [57] | X5 | 221.92 (2016) | 2462.39 (2016) | 361.52 (2016) | 2043.86 (2016) | 62.72 (2016) | 2732 (2014) | |
Number of hospital beds per 1000 people [56,58] | X6 | 2.1 (2010) | 2.4 (2015) | 1.9 (2015) | 11.5 (2015) | 0.8 (2016) | 5.7 (2017) | |
Number of hospitals with joint commission of international accreditation [59] | X7 | 68 | 20 | 13 | 24 | 39 | 13 | |
Marketing effectiveness | Number of medical tourism agencies and facilitations [60] | X8 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 112 | 1 |
Cost Advantage | Average price of medical procedures (US $) [61] | X9 | 11,808 | 12,690 | 8025 | 14,883 | 5783 | 10,167 |
Medical tourism industry | Medical tourism revenue (US $ million) [62] | X10 | 600 | 150 | 350 | 655 | 450 | 300 |
Evaluated Factors | Measurements | Element Weighting | Ranking |
---|---|---|---|
Tourism resources | Number of international tourist arrivals | 0.1823 | 8 |
Number of low-cost airlines companies | 0.1823 | 4 | |
Travel and Tourism Competitiveness index | 1515.4284 | 1 | |
Healthcare resources and medical quality | Number of physicians | 1444.9664 | 2 |
Current Health Expenditure per capita $US | 0.1833 | 7 | |
Number of hospital beds | 191.8731 | 3 | |
Number of hospitals with joint commission of international accreditation | 0.7906 | 6 | |
Marketing effectiveness | Number of medical tourism agencies and facilitations | 1.0052 | 5 |
Cost Advantage | Average price of medical procedures | 0.0585 | 9 |
Situation of Grey Relational Generation | Upper Bound Effectiveness Measurement | Lower Bound Effectiveness Measurement | Upper Bound Effectiveness Measurement | |||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Thailand | 35,592 | 6 | 4.5 | 0.8 | 221.92 | 2.1 | 68 | 8 | 11,808 | 600 |
Singapore | 13,903 | 2 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 2462.39 | 2.4 | 20 | 2 | 12,690 | 150 |
Malaysia | 25,948 | 2 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 361.52 | 1.9 | 13 | 5 | 8025 | 350 |
South Korea | 13,336 | 6 | 4.8 | 3.7 | 2043.86 | 11.5 | 24 | 2 | 14,883 | 655 |
India | 15,543 | 5 | 4.4 | 0.8 | 62.72 | 0.8 | 39 | 112 | 5783 | 450 |
Taiwan | 10,740 | 1 | 4.3 | 2.2 | 2732 | 5.7 | 13 | 1 | 10,167 | 300 |
Medical Tourism Destinations | Grey Relational Grey Grade (Eigenvalues) | Ranking |
---|---|---|
Thailand | 0.966152 | 1 |
Singapore | 0.893754 | 4 |
Malaysia | 0.944011 | 2 |
Taiwan | 0.885301 | 6 |
India | 0.915399 | 3 |
South Korea | 0.893026 | 5 |
Year | Annual Revenue (Billion NT$) | Relative Percentage Error (%) | Number of Medical Tourist (Person) | Relative Percentage Error (%) | ||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GM (1,1) Model | Discrete Grey Model (DGM) (1,1) Model | GM (1,1) Model | DGM (1,1) Model | |||
2012 | 9.623 | 173,311 | ||||
2013 | 13.648 | 0.35 | 0.52 | 231,164 | 1.02 | 0.51 |
2014 | 14.135 | 0.20 | 0.31 | 259,674 | 2.43 | 2.05 |
2015 | 15.896 | 7.86 | 7.81 | 305,045 | 8.03 | 7.78 |
2016 | 13.99 | 8.27 | 8.26 | 286,599 | 8.39 | 8.55 |
2017 | 14.727 | 6.37 | 6.30 | 305,618 | 12.55 | 12.58 |
2018 | 17.135 | 5.46 | 5.58 | 414,369 | 8.08 | 8.17 |
Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE, %) | 4.75 | 4.80 | 6.75 | 6.61 | ||
Accuracy rate (%) | 95.25% | 95.2% | 93.25% | 93.39% | ||
Predictive capability | Excellent | Excellent | Good | Good |
Year | Results of the GM (1,1) Model | Results of the DGM (1,1) Model | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
Annual Revenue (Billion NT$) | Number of Medical Tourists (Persons) | Annual Revenue (Billion NT$) | Number of Medical Tourist (Person) | |
2019 | 16.75 | 421,779 | 16.72 | 420,827 |
2020 | 17.33 | 467,042 | 17.28 | 465,412 |
2021 | 17.92 | 517,163 | 17.86 | 514,721 |
2022 | 18.53 | 572,663 | 18.46 | 569,255 |
2023 | 19.16 | 634,118 | 19.08 | 629,566 |
2024 | 19.82 | 702,169 | 19.72 | 696,267 |
2025 | 20.50 | 777,523 | 20.38 | 770,034 |
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Dang, H.-S.; Nguyen, T.-M.-T.; Wang, C.-N.; Day, J.-D.; Dang, T.M.H. Grey System Theory in the Study of Medical Tourism Industry and Its Economic Impact. Int. J. Environ. Res. Public Health 2020, 17, 961. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17030961
Dang H-S, Nguyen T-M-T, Wang C-N, Day J-D, Dang TMH. Grey System Theory in the Study of Medical Tourism Industry and Its Economic Impact. International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health. 2020; 17(3):961. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17030961
Chicago/Turabian StyleDang, Hoang-Sa, Thuy-Mai-Trinh Nguyen, Chia-Nan Wang, Jen-Der Day, and Thi Minh Han Dang. 2020. "Grey System Theory in the Study of Medical Tourism Industry and Its Economic Impact" International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 17, no. 3: 961. https://doi.org/10.3390/ijerph17030961