In this section, a novel adaptive CKF is proposed to solve the estimation problem with the uncertain noise covariance matrix. Without loss of generality, we introduce this method based on the standard nonlinear model with the nonlinear state and measurement functions.
  3.1. Gaussian Kalman Filter and Cubature Kalman Filter
The Gaussian filter is the main method to solve the nonlinear estimation, which has two key assumptions, that the one step predicted PDFs of the state and measurement are Gaussian, i.e.,
        
        where 
 and 
 denote the mean and variance of 
.
        
        where 
 and 
 denote the mean and variance of 
.
Obviously, the joint one step predicted PDF of the state and measurement 
 is also Gaussian, i.e.,
        
        where 
 is the covariance of 
 and 
. Based on (
14) and (
15), in the Bayesian theorem, the posterior PDF of 
 is also Gaussian, i.e.,
        
        where 
 and 
 denote the mean and variance of 
. 
 and 
 are derived as follows:
        where 
 is the filter gain, and the other parameters are calculated as follows:
        where 
 means the expectation operation.
From (
20) to (
24), the general framework of the Gaussian filter is established, and the core idea of the Gaussian filter is to calculate Gaussian weighted integrals. Due to the nonlinearity of 
 and 
, it is difficult to obtain the accurate numerical solution of (
20)–(
24), and the approximation solution is necessary, i.e.,
        
        where 
 and 
 are the sampling points and corresponding weights of 
.
CKF, which is a typical Gaussian filter, uses the third degree spherical–radial cubature rule to obtain these weighted samples. In (
20), the cubature points of 
 are selected based on 
 and 
. These cubature points are defined as follows:
        where 
 denotes the 
jth column of 
A. Propagating the cubature points of 
 by 
, the state one step predicted mean 
 and covariance 
 can be obtained as follows based on (
20) and (
21):
Furthermore, the cubature points of 
 based on 
 and 
 are selected as follows:
Propagating the cubature points of 
 by 
, the measurement one step predicted mean and covariance can be obtained as follows:
Filter gain 
 and measurement update are given as follows:
  3.2. The Proposed Adaptive Cubature Kalman Filter
When the state noise covariance  and measurement noise covariance  are unknown or inaccurate, the estimation accuracy of CKF may degrade or diverge. Because the one step predicted state error covariance  is influenced by the inaccurate , it is easier to estimate  than . Therefore, in our works, the state, one step predicted state error covariance  and  are jointly estimated to improve the accuracy of CKF with inaccurate noise statistical properties.
In the frame of Bayesian probability theory, the conjugate prior distribution is selected to guarantee the unified form of the prior and posterior distribution. For the Gaussian distribution with known mean, the standard inverse Wishart (IW) PDF is always used as the conjugate prior distribution. The IW PDF is formulated as follows:
        where 
 is positive definite random matrix, 
 is the inverse scale matrix, 
 is the degrees of freedom (dof) parameter, 
d is the dimension of 
, 
 is the trace calculation, and 
 is the 
d-variate Gamma function. When 
, the mean of 
 is shown as follows:
Therefore, the prior distribution 
 and 
 are modeled as follows:
        where 
 and 
 are dof parameters and 
 and 
 are inverse scale matrices.
The mean value of 
 is set as nominal 
, determined by:
        where 
 is the nominal state noise covariance matrix, which means an inaccurate value.
Let:
        and set 
, where 
 is a tuning parameter. We can obtain:
According to the Bayesian theorem, 
 is formulated as:
        where 
 is the posterior PDF of 
. Because the posterior and prior PDF of 
 has the same distribution, the posterior PDF of 
 is also formulated as the inverse Wishart distribution, as follows:
Because of the unknown dynamic model of 
, we selected a forgetting factor 
 to spread the previous posterior to the current prior, and the prior parameters in (
41) are written as follows:
The initial 
 is also assumed as an inverse Wishart PDF, i.e., 
, where the mean value of 
 is set as the initial nominal 
:
In order to estimate the state 
, one step predicted state error covariance 
 and 
, their joint posterior PDF 
 is calculated. Due to the coupling of these parameters, the analytical solution cannot be obtained. Therefore, the VB method is used to solve the estimation problem in coupling.
        
 are calculated by minimizing the Kullback–Leibler divergence (KLD):
The optimal solution of (
51) is given by:
        where 
 means the logarithmic function, 
 is the arbitrary element of 
, 
 contains all elements in 
 except for 
, and 
 means the constant dependent on 
. According to the Bayesian theorem, the joint PDF 
 is factored as:
        where likelihood PDF 
 is assumed as a normal distribution.
        
Substituting (
13), (
38), (
41), and (
55) into (
54), we have:
Taking the logarithm on both sides of (
56), the normal distribution 
 and IW distribution 
 are formulated as follows:
According to (
57) and (
58), 
 is formulated as:
Using (
59) in (
52) and letting 
, we have:
        where 
 is the approximation of PDF 
 at the iteration 
, and 
 is given as follows:
 is updated as an IW PDF with dof parameter 
 and inverse scale matrix 
:
        where:
Let 
; we have:
        where 
 is given by:
        where 
 are cubature points based on 
 and 
.
        
 is updated as an IW PDF with dof parameter 
 and inverse scale matrix 
:
        where:
Let 
; we have:
        where:
The one step predicted PDF 
 and likelihood PDF 
 at iteration 
 are defined as follows:
        where:
Employing (
74)–(
77) in (
71), we have:
        where the normalization constant 
 is given as:
 is updated as the normal distribution with mean 
 and variance 
:
        where 
 and 
 at iteration 
 are calculated similarly to (
31)–(
37).
The cubature points of 
 based on 
 and modified 
 are given as:
After 
N fixed point iterations, we can obtain the approximate solution of 
, 
 and 
:
When the measurement model is linear, such as the initial alignment measurement model in (
12), we can obtain the simplified algorithm, where (
66) and (
81)–(
89) are formulated as follows:
The implementation pseudocode of the proposed adaptive cubature Kalman filter is shown in Algorithm 1.
To implement the proposed ACKF method, we need to select the tuning parameter 
, the forgetting factor 
, and the iteration number 
N. Tuning parameter 
 can be seen as an adjustment parameter of 
. If 
 is too large, the prior uncertainties induced by nominal 
 will influence the measurement update. If 
 is too small, the information of the process model will be also lost. According to the research result of [
27], the optimal range of the turning parameter is 
, which has better estimation performance and estimation accuracy. The forgetting factor 
 also adjusts the influence of 
. Note that 
 means the stationary measurement noise covariance. A large iteration number 
N will improve the estimation accuracy, but also increase the computational cost. According to our experience, 
 will have good performance in the alignment.
        
| Algorithm 1: One-step of the proposed adaptive cubature Kalman filter. | 
| Inputs: , , , , , , , , N. | 
| Time update | 
| 1. Calculate cubature points based on  and . | 
| 2. . | 
| 3. . | 
| 4. . | 
| Iterated measurement update | 
| 5. Initialization: , , ,, | 
| , . | 
| For | 
| 6. Update , | 
| , , where . | 
| 7. Update , | 
| , , where . | 
| 8. Update , | 
| , . | 
| 9. Calculate the mean and variance of posterior PDF, | 
| , | 
| , | 
| . | 
| End for | 
| 10. ,, , . | 
| Outputs: , , , . |