The Evolution Characteristics of Systemic Risk in China’s Stock Market Based on a Dynamic Complex Network
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School of Computer Science and Technology, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
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Key Laboratory of Big Data Mining and Knowledge Management, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
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Research Center on Fictitious Economy & Data Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
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College of Information Science and Technology, University of Nebraska at Omaha, Omaha, NE 68182, USA
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School of Economics and Management, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100190, China
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Sino-Danish College, University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
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Geisel School of Medicine, Dartmouth College, Hanover, NH 03755, USA
*
Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
Entropy 2020, 22(6), 614; https://doi.org/10.3390/e22060614
Received: 9 April 2020
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Revised: 28 May 2020
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Accepted: 29 May 2020
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Published: 2 June 2020
(This article belongs to the Special Issue Complexity in Economic and Social Systems)
The stock market is a complex system with unpredictable stock price fluctuations. When the positive feedback in the market amplifies, the systemic risk will increase rapidly. During the last 30 years of development, the mechanism and governance system of China’s stock market have been constantly improving, but irrational shocks have still appeared suddenly in the last decade, making investment decisions risky. Therefore, based on the daily return of all a-shares in China, this paper constructs a dynamic complex network of individual stocks, and represents the systemic risk of the market using the average weighting degree, as well as the adjusted structural entropy, of the network. In order to eliminate the influence of disturbance factors, empirical mode decomposition (EMD) and grey relational analysis (GRA) are used to decompose and reconstruct the sequences to obtain the evolution trend and periodic fluctuation of systemic risk. The results show that the systemic risk of China’s stock market as a whole shows a downward trend, and the periodic fluctuation of systemic risk has a long-term equilibrium relationship with the abnormal fluctuation of the stock market. Further, each rise of systemic risk corresponds to external factor shocks and internal structural problems.
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Keywords:
complex network; systemic risk; structural entropy; stock market; EMD
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MDPI and ACS Style
Shi, Y.; Zheng, Y.; Guo, K.; Jin, Z.; Huang, Z. The Evolution Characteristics of Systemic Risk in China’s Stock Market Based on a Dynamic Complex Network. Entropy 2020, 22, 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22060614
AMA Style
Shi Y, Zheng Y, Guo K, Jin Z, Huang Z. The Evolution Characteristics of Systemic Risk in China’s Stock Market Based on a Dynamic Complex Network. Entropy. 2020; 22(6):614. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22060614
Chicago/Turabian StyleShi, Yong, Yuanchun Zheng, Kun Guo, Zhenni Jin, and Zili Huang. 2020. "The Evolution Characteristics of Systemic Risk in China’s Stock Market Based on a Dynamic Complex Network" Entropy 22, no. 6: 614. https://doi.org/10.3390/e22060614
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