Entropy

Mathematical and computational models, which have been successfully used in various fields of biology, are particularly relevant in studies on the origin of life, where wet experiments have not yet been able to obtain fully “living” entities from abiotic materials. This paper investigates mathematical and computational models of interacting polymers in prebiotic environments to understand how molecular replication and protocell reproduction could emerge. This study builds on the Binary Polymer Model (K-BPM), in which polymers are represented as binary strings that undergo catalyzed condensation and cleavage reactions, by introducing a biologically relevant variant (C-BPM), where catalytic activity depends on polymer structure. The model is analyzed with respect to the formation of autocatalytic networks, formalized as Reflexive Autocatalytic Food-generated (RAF) sets, embedded in a protocell in order to simulate their dynamics. The results show clear differences between K-BPM and C-BPM models. They also show that the existence of a RAF does not guarantee the survival of a population of protocells, although it may be possible when only a subset of the existing species partakes in the RAF, thus suggesting that small autocatalytic networks may have preceded the larger networks found in modern life.

In today’s information ecosystem, disinformation threatens civic autonomy and the stability of public discourse. Beyond the intentional spread of false information, it often appears as narrative divergence among sources interpreting shared events, generating fragmentation and measurable losses in structural coherence. This study examines disinformation within an entropic structural framework, defining it as narrative disorder and epistemic incoherence in information systems. The approach moves beyond fact-checking by treating narrative structure and informational order as quantifiable attributes of public communication. We present the QVP-RI (Relational Information Valuation) operator, a computational model that quantifies narrative divergence through informational entropy and normalized structural divergence, without issuing truth assessments. Implemented through state-of-the-art NLP pipelines and entropic analysis, the operator maps narrative structure and epistemic order across plural media environments. Unlike accuracy-driven approaches, it evaluates narrative coherence and informational utility (IU) as complementary indicators of epistemic value. Experimental validation with 500 participants confirms the robustness of the structural–entropic model and identifies high divergence regions, revealing communication vulnerabilities and showing how narrative disorder enables disinformation dynamics. The QVP-RI operator thus offers a computationally grounded tool for analyzing disinformation as narrative divergence and for strengthening epistemic order in open information systems.

Railway passenger flow forecasting plays a critical role in operational efficiency and resource allocation for transportation systems. However, existing deep learning approaches suffer significant performance degradation when facing rare but high-impact events, primarily due to sample scarcity and their inability to distinguish between routine patterns and disruption regimes. To address these challenges, this study introduces EA-ARIMA-Informer, an adaptive forecasting framework that integrates entropy-augmented ARIMA with Informer through an entropy-guided regime-switching mechanism. The passenger flow series is characterized through a multi-dimensional entropy space comprising four complementary measures: Sample Entropy quantifies local regularity and predictability, Permutation Entropy captures the complexity of ordinal dynamics, Transfer Entropy measures causal information flow from external events (holidays, weather) to passenger demand, and the Conditional Entropy Growth Factor (CEGF)—a novel metric introduced herein—detects regime transitions by tracking the rate of uncertainty change between consecutive time windows. These entropy indicators serve dual roles as feature inputs for representation learning and as state identifiers for segmenting the time series into stable and fluctuating regimes with distinct predictability properties. An adaptive dual-path architecture is then designed accordingly: EA-ARIMA handles low-entropy stable regimes where linear seasonality dominates, while EA-Informer processes high-entropy fluctuating regimes requiring nonlinear residual modeling, with CEGF-guided gating dynamically controlling component weights. Unlike conventional black-box gating mechanisms, this entropy-based switching provides physically interpretable signals that explain when and why different model components dominate the forecast. The framework is validated on a large-scale dataset covering nearly 300 Chinese cities over three years (2017–2019), encompassing normal operations, holiday peaks, and extreme weather disruptions. Experimental results demonstrate that EA-ARIMA-Informer achieves a MAPE of 4.39% for large-scale cities and 7.82% for data-scarce small cities (Tier-3), substantially outperforming standalone ARIMA, XGBoost, and Informer, which yield 15.95%, 13.75%, and 12.87%, respectively, for Tier-3 cities. Ablation studies confirm that both entropy-based feature augmentation and CEGF-guided regime switching contribute significantly to these performance gains, establishing a new paradigm for interpretable and adaptive forecasting in complex transportation systems.