Search Results (151)

Amid accelerating climate change, climate-related hazards—such as floods, wildfires, hurricanes, and sea-level rise—increasingly drive land transformations and pose growing risks to housing markets by affecting property valuations, insurance availability, mortgage performance, and broader financial stability. This review synthesizes recent progress in two distinct domains and their linkage: (1) assessing climate-related financial risks in housing markets, and (2) applying AI-driven remote sensing for hazard detection and land transformation monitoring. While both areas have advanced significantly, important limitations remain. Existing housing finance studies often rely on static models and coarse spatial data, lacking integration with real-time environmental information, thereby reducing their predictive power and policy relevance. In parallel, remote sensing studies using AI primarily focus on detecting physical hazards and land surface changes, yet rarely connect these spatial transformations to financial outcomes. To address these gaps, this review proposes an integrative framework that combines AI-enhanced remote sensing technologies with financial econometric modeling to improve the accuracy, timeliness, and policy relevance of climate-related risk assessment in housing markets. By bridging environmental hazard data—including land-based indicators of exposure and damage—with financial indicators, the framework enables more granular, dynamic, and equitable assessments than conventional approaches. Nonetheless, its implementation faces technical and institutional barriers, including spatial and temporal mismatches between datasets, fragmented regulatory and behavioral inputs, and the limitations of current single-task AI models, which often lack transparency. Overcoming these challenges will require innovation in AI modeling, improved data-sharing infrastructures, and stronger cross-disciplinary collaboration. Full article

Wildfires are increasing in frequency and severity, with Australia’s 2019–2020 Black Summer burning over 18 million hectares. Accurate prediction of wildfire behavior is essential for effective risk assessment and emergency response. This study presents a machine learning framework for predicting wildfire dynamics across Australia’s seven regions using the IBM wildfire dataset. Various Machine Learning (ML) models were evaluated to forecast three key indicators: Fire Area (km²), Fire Brightness Temperature (K), and Fire Radiative Power (MW). Lasso Regression consistently outperformed the other models, achieving an average RMSE of 0.04201 and R² of 0.29355. Performance varied across regions, with stronger results in areas like New South Wales and Queensland, likely influenced by differences in topography, microclimate, and vegetation. However, limitations include the exclusion of ignition sources such as lightning and human activity, which are critical for capturing the environment accurately and improving predictive accuracy. Future work will integrate these factors alongside more detailed weather and vegetation data. Practical implementation may face challenges related to real-time data availability, system integration, and response coordination, but this approach offers promising potential for operational wildfire decision support. Full article

Critical infrastructure, such as transport networks, energy facilities, and urban installations, is increasingly vulnerable to natural hazards and climate change. Remote sensing technologies, namely satellite imagery, offer solutions for monitoring, evaluating, and enhancing the resilience of these vital assets. This paper explores how applications based on synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical satellite imagery contribute to the protection of critical infrastructure by enabling near real-time monitoring and early detection of natural hazards for actionable insights across various European critical infrastructure sectors. Case studies demonstrate the integration of remote sensing data into geographic information systems (GISs) for promoting situational awareness, risk assessment, and predictive modeling of natural disasters. These include floods, landslides, wildfires, and earthquakes. Accordingly, this study underlines the role of remote sensing in supporting long-term infrastructure planning and climate adaptation strategies. The presented work supports the goals of the European Union (EU-HORIZON)-sponsored ATLANTIS project, which focuses on strengthening the resilience of critical EU infrastructures by providing authorities and civil protection services with effective tools for managing natural hazards. Full article

In the Mediterranean basin, wildfires burn an average of 600,000 ha per year, causing severe ecological, economic, and social impacts. Fire behavior modeling is essential for wildfire prevention and control. Three-dimensional physics-based fire behavior models, such as Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS), can represent heterogeneous fuels and simulate fire behavior processes with greater detail than conventional models. However, they require accurate information about species composition and 3D distribution of fuel mass and bulk density at the voxel level. Working in a Mediterranean ecosystem study area we developed a methodology based on the use of geometric and spectral features from UAS-based digital aerial photogrammetric point clouds for (i) species segmentation and classification using machine learning algorithms, (ii) generation of biomass prediction models at individual plant level, and (iii) creation of 3D fuel scenarios and modeling wildfire behavior. Field measurements were conducted on 22 circular plots with a radius of 5 m. Data from the field measurements, combined with species-specific allometric equations, were used for the evaluation of classification and prediction models. Fire behavior variables such as rate of spread, heat release rate, and mass loss rate were monitored and assessed as outputs from 20 different scenarios using FDS. The overall species classification accuracy was 80.3%, and the biomass regression R² values obtained by cross-validation were 0.77 for Pinus halepensis and 0.83 for Anthyllis cytisoides. These results are encouraging further improvement based on the integration of sensors onboard UAS, and the characterization of fuels for fire behavior modeling. These high-resolution fuel representations can be coupled with standard risk assessment tools, enabling fire managers to prioritize treatment areas and plan for resource deployment. Full article

Effective estimation of fuel load is critical for mitigating wildfire risks. Here, we evaluate the performance of mobile laser scanning (MLS) and terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) to estimate fuel loads across multiple vegetation layers. Data were collected in two forest regions: the North Kaibab (NK) Plateau in Arizona and Monroe Mountain (MM) in Utah. We used random forest models to predict vegetation attributes, evaluating the performance of full models and transferred models using R², RMSE, and bias. The MLS consistently outperformed the TLS system, particularly for canopy-related attributes and woody biomass components. However, the TLS system showed potential for capturing canopy structure attributes, while offering advantages like operational simplicity, low equipment demands, and ease of deployment in the field, making it a cost-effective alternative for managers without access to more complex and expensive mobile or airborne systems. Our results show that model transferability between NK and MM is highly variable depending on the fuel attributes. Attributes related to canopy biomass showed better transferability, with small losses in predictive accuracy when models were transferred between the two sites. Conversely, surface fuel attributes showed more significant challenges for model transferability, given the difficulty of laser penetration in the lower vegetation layers. In general, models trained in NK and validated in MM consistently outperformed those trained in MM and transferred to NK. This may suggest that the NK plots captured a broader complexity of vegetation structure and environmental conditions from which models learned better and were able to generalize to MM. This study highlights the potential of ground-based LiDAR technologies in providing detailed information and important insights into fire risk and forest structure. Full article

Wildfires have become increasingly frequent and intense due to climate change, posing severe threats to ecosystems, infrastructure, and human lives. As a result, accurate wildfire spread prediction is critical for effective risk mitigation, resource allocation, and decision making in disaster management. In this study, we develop a deep learning model to predict wildfire spread using remote sensing data. We propose LinU-Mamba, a model with a U-Net-based vision Mamba architecture, with light spatial attention in skip connections, and an efficient linear attention mechanism in the encoder and decoder to better capture salient fire information in the dataset. The model is trained and evaluated on the two-dimensional remote sensing dataset Next Day Wildfire Spread (NDWS), which maps fire data across the United States with fire entries, topography, vegetation, weather, drought index, and population density variables. The results demonstrate that our approach achieves superior performance compared to existing deep learning methods applied to the same dataset, while showing an efficient training time. Furthermore, we highlight the impacts of pre-training and feature selection in remote sensing, as well as the impacts of linear attention use in our model. As far as we know, LinU-Mamba is the first model based on Mamba used for wildfire spread prediction, making it a strong foundation for future research. Full article

This study examines the complex interactions among soil moisture, evaporation, extreme weather events, and lightning, and their influence on fire activity across the extratropical and Pan-Arctic regions. Leveraging reanalysis and remote-sensing datasets from 2000 to 2020, we applied cross-correlation analysis, a modified Mann–Kendall trend test, and assessments of interannual variability to key variables including soil moisture, fire frequency and risk, evaporation, and lightning. Results indicate a significant increase in dry days (up to 40%) and heatwave events across Central Eurasia and Siberia (up to 50%) and Alaska (25%), when compared to the 1980–2000 baseline. Upward trends have been detected in evaporation across most of North America, consistent with soil moisture trends, while much of Eurasia exhibits declining soil moisture. Fire danger shows a strong positive correlation with evaporation north of 60° N (r ≈ 0.7, p ≤ 0.005), but a negative correlation in regions south of this latitude. These findings suggest that in mid-latitude ecosystems, fire activity is not solely driven by water stress or atmospheric dryness, highlighting the importance of region-specific surface–atmosphere interactions in shaping fire regimes. In North America, most fires occur in temperate grasslands, savannas, and shrublands (47%), whereas in Eurasia, approximately 55% of fires are concentrated in forests/taiga and temperate open biomes. The analysis also highlights that lightning-related fires are more prevalent in Eastern Europe and Southeastern Asia. In contrast, Western North America exhibits high fire incidence in temperate conifer forests despite relatively low lightning activity, indicating a dominant role of anthropogenic ignition. These findings underscore the importance of understanding land–atmosphere interactions in assessing fire risk. Integrating surface conditions, climate extremes, and ignition sources into fire prediction models is crucial for developing more effective wildfire prevention and management strategies. Full article

Understanding and mapping forest fire vulnerability is essential for informed landscape management and disaster risk reduction, especially in the context of increasing anthropogenic and climatic pressures. This study aims to model and spatially predict forest fire vulnerability across Romania using two machine learning algorithms: MaxEnt and XGBoost. We integrated forest fire occurrence data from 2006 to 2024 with a suite of climatic, topographic, ecological, and anthropogenic predictors at a 250 m spatial resolution. MaxEnt, based on presence-only data, achieved moderate predictive performance (AUC = 0.758), while XGBoost, trained on presence–absence data, delivered higher classification accuracy (AUC = 0.988). Both models revealed that the impact of environmental variables on forest fire occurrence is complex and heterogeneous, with the most influential predictors being the Fire Weather Index, forest fuel type, elevation, and distance to human proximity features. The resulting vulnerability and uncertainty maps revealed hotspots in Sub-Carpathian and lowland regions, especially in Mehedinți, Gorj, Dolj, and Olt counties. These patterns reflect historical fire data and highlight the role of transitional agro-forested landscapes. This study delivers a replicable, data-driven approach to wildfire risk modelling, supporting proactive management and emphasising the importance of integrating vulnerability assessments into planning and climate adaptation strategies. Full article

Frequent wildfires in the eastern grasslands of Mongolia pose significant threats to the ecological environment and pastoral livelihoods, creating an urgent need for high-temporal-resolution and high-precision fire prediction. To address this, this study established a daily-scale grassland fire risk assessment framework integrating multi-source remote sensing data to enhance predictive capabilities in eastern Mongolia. Utilizing fire point data from eastern Mongolia (2012–2022), we fused multiple feature variables and developed and optimized three models: random forest (RF), XGBoost, and deep neural network (DNN). Model performance was enhanced using Bayesian hyperparameter optimization via Optuna. Results indicate that the Bayesian-optimized XGBoost model achieved the best generalization performance, with an overall accuracy of 92.3%. Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) interpretability analysis revealed that daily-scale meteorological factors—daily average relative humidity, daily average wind speed, daily maximum temperature—and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) were consistently among the top four contributing variables across all three models, identifying them as key drivers of fire occurrence. Spatiotemporal validation using historical fire data from 2023 demonstrated that fire points recorded on 8 April and 1 May 2023 fell within areas predicted to have “extremely high” fire risk probability on those respective days. Moreover, points A (117.36° E, 46.70° N) and B (116.34° E, 49.57° N) exhibited the highest number of days classified as “high” or “extremely high” risk during the April/May and September/October periods, consistent with actual fire occurrences. In summary, the integration of multi-source data fusion and Bayesian-optimized machine learning has enabled the first high-precision daily-scale wildfire risk prediction for the eastern Mongolian grasslands, thus providing a scientific foundation and decision-making support for wildfire prevention and control in the region. Full article

This study explores the use of ensemble machine learning models to develop wildfire susceptibility maps (WFSMs) in Greece, focusing on their application as regressors. We provide a continuous assessment of wildfire risk, enhancing the interpretability and accuracy of predictions. Two key metrics were developed: Ensemble Mean and Ensemble Max. This dual-metric approach improves predictive robustness and provides critical insights for wildfire management strategies. The ensemble mode effectively handles complex, high-dimensional data, addressing challenges such as over fitting and data heterogeneity. Utilizing advanced techniques like XGBoost, GBM, LightGBM, and CatBoost regressors, our research demonstrates the potential of these methods to enhance wildfire risk estimation. The Ensemble Mean model classified 50% of the land as low risk and 21% as high risk, while the Ensemble Max model identified 38% as low risk and 33% as high risk. Notably, 83% of wildfires between 2000 and 2024 occurred in areas marked as high-risk by both models. The findings reveal that a significant proportion of wildfires occurred in areas identified as high risk by both ensemble models, underscoring their effectiveness. This approach offers significant potential to mitigate wildfires’ environmental, economic, and social impacts, enhance climate resilience, and strengthen preparedness for future wildfire events. Full article

Wildfires are complex natural disasters that significantly impact ecosystems and human communities. The early detection and prediction of forest fire risk are necessary for effective forest management and resource protection. This paper proposes an innovative early detection system based on a wireless sensor network (WSN) composed of interconnected Arduino nodes arranged in a hybrid circular/star topology. This configuration reduces the number of required nodes by 53–55% compared to conventional Mesh 2D topologies while enhancing data collection efficiency. Each node integrates temperature/humidity sensors and uses ZigBee communication for the real-time monitoring of wildfire risk conditions. This optimized topology ensures 41–81% lower latency and 50–60% fewer hops than conventional Mesh 2D topologies. The system also integrates artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms (multiclass logistic regression) to process sensor data and predict fire risk levels with 99.97% accuracy, enabling proactive wildfire mitigation. Simulations for a 300 m radius area show the non-dense hybrid topology is the most energy-efficient, outperforming dense and Mesh 2D topologies. Additionally, the dense topology achieves the lowest packet loss rate (PLR), reducing losses by up to 80.4% compared to Mesh 2D. Adaptive routing, dynamic round-robin arbitration, vertical tier jumps, and GSM connectivity ensure reliable communication in remote areas, providing a cost-effective solution for wildfire mitigation and broader environmental monitoring. Full article

Wildfires pose significant threats to ecosystems, human lives, and property worldwide. Understanding the behavior of fire spread on sloped terrain is essential for developing effective firefighting strategies and improving fire prediction models. Previous research has successfully demonstrated the accuracy of numerical tools in comparison to laboratory experiments. This study focuses on the influence of terrain slope and wind speed on wildland fire behavior using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations. In the first phase, the numerical model was validated for a 5 m high single Douglas Fir tree under various mesh sizes, yielding heat release and mass loss rates in close agreement with experimental data. The second phase extends the model to simulate a plantation of 66 Douglas Fir trees under varying slopes and wind conditions. The results indicate that a downward slope of 30° reduces the peak heat release rate, while an upward slope of 30° increases it, with wind speed amplifying these effects. Based on these data, a new reduced-order model is proposed to quantify the influence of slope angle on the heat release rate (HRR) in wildland fires. These findings are critical for enhancing predictive fire models and mitigating wildfire risks in complex terrains. Full article

Fire, whether wild or urban, depends on the triad of oxygen, fuel, and heat. Urban fires, although smaller in scale, have devastating impacts, as evidenced by the 2018 wildfire in Mati, Attica (Greece), which claimed 104 lives. The elderly and children are the most vulnerable due to mobility and cognitive limitations. This study applies Grammatical Evolution (GE), a machine learning method that generates interpretable classification rules to predict the consequences of urban fires. Using historical data (casualties, containment time, and meteorological/demographic parameters), GE produces classification rules in human-readable form. The rules achieve over 85% accuracy, revealing critical correlations. For example, high temperatures (>35 °C) combined with irregular building layouts exponentially increase fatality risks, while firefighter response time proves more critical than fire intensity itself. Applications include dynamic evacuation strategies (real-time adaptation), preventive urban planning (fire-resistant materials and green buffer zones), and targeted awareness campaigns for at-risk groups. Unlike “black-box” machine learning techniques, GE offers transparent human-readable rules, enabling firefighters and authorities to make rapid informed decisions. Future advancements could integrate real-time data (IoT sensors and satellites) and extend the methodology to other natural disasters. Protecting urban centers from fires is not only a technological challenge but also a moral imperative to safeguard human lives and societal cohesion. Full article

Wildfires impact forest ecosystems, affecting tree survival and physiological responses. This study explored the effects of surface fires on Pinus densiflora and Quercus variabilis, assessing mortality, internal injuries, and canopy health. By 2024, P. densiflora had an 18.0% mortality rate, whereas Q. variabilis exhibited no crown dieback. Morphological traits, including tree height, the bark scorch index (BSI), and bark thickness, influenced fire resistance. Despite superior stand characteristics, P. densiflora showed higher mortality due to thin bark, whereas Q. variabilis maintained xylem integrity. While sonic tomography (SoT) showed no significant differences, electrical resistance tomography (ERT) detected physiological stress, with higher ERT_R and ERT_Y area ratios correlating with mortality risk. Notably, F-W-W classified trees showed elevated resistance a year before mortality, suggesting ERT as a predictive tool. ERT_R values exceeding 15.0% were associated with a 37.5% mortality rate, whereas ERT_B values below 55.0% corresponded to 42.9% mortality. Despite fire exposure, canopy responses, including chlorophyll fluorescence and photosynthetic efficiency, remained stable, indicating that the surviving trees maintained functional integrity. This study underscores ERT’s efficacy in diagnosing fire-induced stress and predicting mortality risk. The findings highlight species-specific diagnostic criteria and inform post-fire management, supporting forest resilience through the early detection of high-risk trees and improved restoration strategies. Full article

In recent years, the increasingly significant impacts of climate change and human activities on the environment have led to more frequent occurrences of extreme events such as forest fires. The recurrent wildfires pose severe threats to ecological environments and human life safety. Consequently, forest fire prediction has become a current research hotspot, where accurate forecasting technologies are crucial for reducing ecological and economic losses, improving forest fire management efficiency, and ensuring personnel safety and property security. To enhance comprehensive understanding of wildfire prediction research, this paper systematically reviews studies since 2015, focusing on two key aspects: datasets with related tools and prediction algorithms. We categorized the literature into three categories: statistical analysis and physical models, traditional machine learning methods, and deep learning approaches. Additionally, this review summarizes the data types and open-source datasets used in the selected literature. The paper further outlines current challenges and future directions, including exploring wildfire risk data management and multimodal deep learning, investigating self-supervised learning models, improving model interpretability and developing explainable models, integrating physics-informed models with machine learning, and constructing digital twin technology for real-time wildfire simulation and fire scenario analysis. This study aims to provide valuable support for forest natural resource management and enhanced environmental protection through the application of remote sensing technologies and artificial intelligence algorithms. Full article