Search Results (39)

Climate variability intensifies weather risks across smallholder rainfed farming systems in Africa. Farmers often respond by minimizing the use of modern inputs and opting for low-cost traditional practices, a strategy that decreases average yields and perpetuates poverty. While crop insurance could incentivize greater adoption of inputs, indemnity-based programs face market failures. Weather index insurance (WII), which utilizes objective weather data to trigger payouts while addressing traditional crop insurance market failures, is a viable solution. However, empirical evidence on the impact of WII remains limited, with most studies relying on controlled experiments or hypothetical scenarios that overlook real-world adoption dynamics. This study analyzed observational data from 400 smallholder farmers across diverse agroecological zones in Njoro Sub-County, Kenya, using instrumental variable regression to evaluate the impact of weather index insurance (WII) on input adoption and intensity of use. Findings indicated that WII significantly increased the adoption and intensification of improved inputs while displacing traditional practices, with effects moderated by gender, financial access, and infrastructure. Specifically, active WII users applied 28.7 kg/acre more chemical fertilizer and used 2.6 kg/acre more hybrid maize seeds while reducing manure and traditional seed usage by 27 kg/acre and 2.9 kg/acre, respectively. However, the effectiveness of WII was context-dependent, varying under extreme drought conditions and in high-fertility soils, which directly affected resilience outcomes. These findings suggest that policies should combine insurance with targeted agroecological practices and complementary measures, such as improved access to credit and gender-sensitive extension programs tailored to the specific needs of women farmers, to support sustainable agricultural transformation. Full article

By the end of the decade, the world population is expected to increase by nearly one billion people, posing challenges to meeting global food demand. In this scenario, soybean production is projected to increase by 18% within this decade. Despite being the largest soybean producer, responsible for over 40% of soybeans produced worldwide, drought events often impair Brazilian production. The goals of the present research were to quantify soybean yield losses related to drought in Brazil from 1973 to 2023 at national, state, and municipal levels and to assess the spatial distribution of losses across the production areas. The hypothesis investigated is that year-to-year variations in soybean yield are closely related to water availability, considering that crop management practices are constant from year to year, while increments in soybean yield across time (more than five years) relate tightly to better crop management practices and breeding improvements. Thus, quantifying year-to-year yield losses might demonstrate the effects of water availability on soybean yield. Yield data from the 1976/1977 to 2022/2023 crop seasons from the 26 states and the Federal District came from the National Supply Company, while the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics supplied yield data for the 1973/1974 to 2020/2021 crop seasons from 1998 municipalities with more than 14 crop seasons. Soybean drought yield losses were calculated for each cropping season individually at the municipal, state, and national levels, based on the deviation in the observed yield to the corresponding maximum yield in the five-year window, considering that crop management practices and genetics represent a regular increment in soybean yield, which means that production practices improved over time and deviations from year to year are mainly related to drought occurrence. Annual soybean yield loss (expressed in tons, USD, and percentage), frequency of yield loss, and severity of yield loss were calculated at national, state, and municipal levels for each cropping season. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), acquired from the Brazilian Weather Forecast and Climate Studies Center at the National Space Research Institute, was used as a qualitative indicator to corroborate the assessed soybean yield losses related to drought. The results demonstrate yield losses in more than 50% of crop seasons at the national level, with a similar frequency across the five decades, albeit with lower severities in the last 30 years. The Central–West region was more stable than the South region, with yield losses of up to 74%. In five decades, yield losses related to drought events stand at 11.65%, corresponding to 280 million tons or USD 152 billion (considering the average soybean price in 2022 at the Chicago Board of Trade). At the municipal level, analogous behavior was observed across time and space. The outcomes from the present research might subsidize public and corporative policies related to agricultural zoning, farm loan programs, crop insurance contracts, and food security, contributing to higher agricultural, environmental, economic, and social sustainability. Full article

This paper analyzes the factors influencing households’ resilience capacities to shocks within Kenya’s fisheries and aquaculture sectors and draws from primary data collected from 419 fish-dependent households across Kisumu, Busia, Mombasa, and Kilifi counties. The sample represents a total of 48,000 fishing households. The study adopted a quasi-longitudinal design and computed the household resilience capacity index (RCI) using the resilience index measurement and analysis (RIMA-II) model. The results indicate that male-headed households’ mean household RCI scores (mean = 45.07 ± 10.43) were statistically significant to that of female-headed households (mean = 38.15 ± 9.25), suggesting that female-headed households are associated with lower resilience capacities than male-headed households. Moreover, the study identifies differences in resilience levels across various occupations within the sector. For instance, RCI scores among fish traders (mean = 40.71 ± 9.97), a function performed mainly by women, statistically differed (p < 0.005) from male-dominated cage farming (mean = 48.60 ± 10.47), whereas RCI scores at the production level for fisher folks (mean = 44.89 ± 10.09) and pond farmers (mean = 44.04 ± 12.07) showed no statistical difference (0 > 0.05. Additionally, households with more income sources tend to have higher resilience capacities. Seasonality in fishing cycles limited households’ ability to recover from climate-induced shocks; the more months without fishing activity, the less the odds of recovery from shocks (OR = 0.532, 95% CI [0.163, 0.908], p = 0.022). Furthermore, households that lacked guaranteed market access and inputs during COVID-19 were less likely to recover during and after the shocks (OR = 0.401, 95% CI [0.161, 0.999], p = 0.05). Households organized in cooperatives with better access to credit showed a higher chance of recovery. The study recommends (a) adopting gender-sensitive approaches in fisheries and aquaculture interventions to empower women in trade, (b) strengthening policies to enhance access and adoption of climate-smart technologies such as cage fish farming, (c) promoting livelihood diversification to sustain households’ income during fishing off-seasons, and (d) enhancing market linkages in the fish value chain through coordinated producer organizations. Further research should explore the possibilities of introducing index-based weather insurance and other tested suitable safety nets for the fisheries and aquaculture sector. Full article

Farmers in Kazakhstan face unreliable water resources. This includes water scarcity in the summer, high fluctuations in precipitation levels, and an increase in extreme weather events such as snow, rain, floods, and droughts. Wheat production is regulated and subsidized by the Kazakh government to strengthen food security. The proper monitoring of crop production is vital to government agencies, as well as insurance and banking structures. These organizations offer subsidies through different levels support. Some farmers already use farmland soil monitoring combined with adaptive combinations of different crops. These include winter–spring plowing crop programs. Winter wheat crops are generally more adaptive and may survive summer droughts. Kazakhstan is a large country with large plots of farmland, which are complicated to monitor. Therefore, it would be reasonable to adapt more efficient technologies and methodologies, such as remote sensing. This research work presents a method for identifying winter wheat crops in the foothills of South Kazakhstan by employing multi-temporal Sentinel-2 data. Here, the researchers adapted and applied a Plowed Land Index, derived from the Brightness Index. The methodology encompasses satellite data processing, the computation of Plowed Land Index values for the swift recognition of plowed fields and the demarcation of winter wheat crop sowing regions, along with a comparative analysis of the acquired data with ground surveys. Full article

Insurance serves as a mechanism to effectively manage and transfer revenue-related risks. We conducted a study to explore the potential financial advantages of index insurance, which protects agricultural producers, specifically sugarcane, against excessive rainfall. Creation of the index involved utilizing generalized additive regression models, allowing for consideration of non-linear effects and handling complex data by adjusting the complexity of the model through the addition or reduction of terms. Moreover, quantile generalized additive regression was deliberated to evaluate relationships with lower quantiles, such as low-yield events. To quantify the financial benefits for farmers, should they opt for excessive rainfall index insurance, we employed efficiency analysis based on metrics such as conditional tail expectation (CTE), certainty equivalence of revenue (CER), and mean root square loss (MRSL). The results of the regression model demonstrate its accuracy in predicting sugar cane yields, with a split testing R² of 0.691. MRSL should be taken into consideration initially, as it is a farmer’s revenue assessment that distinguishes between those with and those without insurance. As a result, the GAM model indicates the least fluctuation in farmer income at the 90th percentile. Additionally, our study suggests that this type of insurance could apply to sugarcane farmers and other crop producers in regions where extreme rainfall threatens the financial sustainability of agricultural production. Full article

The weather index crop insurance (WICI) scheme was introduced under a pilot project for rice in Cambodia in 2021. The adoption rate was low and the loss ratio was higher than 200%. The increase in farmers’ participation would help reduce the loss ratio, which can sustain the WICI scheme. This study, therefore, examines Cambodian rice farmers’ willingness to purchase WICI in Cambodia. The hypothesis is that the low adoption rate is due to a lack of awareness, lack of understanding of WICI, lack of trust in weather stations, and the problem of basis risk. This study would like to test the influence of those factors on the willingness to purchase in Cambodia. Battambang Province was chosen as the study area as it is the largest area for rice production and has the largest take-up rate of farmers buying WICI. Detailed interviews of 232 farmers were conducted in the districts of Bavel and Moung Ruessei. The probit regression model was used to identify factors that significantly impact farmers’ willingness to purchase WICI. The results indicate that land size, level of trust in weather stations, level of farmers’ understanding of WICI, and joining the WICI awareness program have positive effects on the probability of farmers’ willingness to buy WICI, whereas the number of household laborers and expectation of floods have negative influences. The probability of willingness to purchase by farmers who attended the awareness program on WICI was 38% higher than those who did not. The size of farmland, level of trust in weather stations, and level of understanding of WICI increase in one unit affecting the probability of willingness to purchase WICI by 4%, 16%, and 25%, respectively. On the other hand, the increase in the number of household laborers in the rice field by one person and the increase in the probability of expected flood increase by 0.1 drag back the probability of farmers’ willingness to purchase by 16% and 5%, respectively. The results suggest the government to raise the insurance awareness and understanding of WICI. Development of weather station infrastructure, as well as maintenance of weather stations, is needed to guarantee the accuracy of data generated from the weather station. Full article

Climate plays a major role in the spatiotemporal distribution of most agricultural systems, and the economic losses related to climate and weather extremes have escalated significantly in the last decades. South America is one of the most productive agricultural areas of the globe. In recent years, remote sensing data and geographic information systems have been used to improve geo-environmental hazard assessment. However, food security is still highly dependent on small farmer practices that are frequently the most vulnerable to climate extremes. This work reviews climate and weather extremes’ impacts on crop production for South American countries, focusing on the projected ones considering different climate scenarios and countries. A positive trend in the productivity of maize, mainly related to agricultural improvements, was recently observed in Colombia, Ecuador, and Uruguay by up to 200%, as well as in the case of soybean in Bolivia and Uruguay by about 125%. Despite the generalized adverse impacts of climate extremes, results from agrometeorological models generally indicate an increase in crop production in southern regions of Chile (and highlands) and Brazil mainly related to increased temperature. Positive impacts in response to CO₂ fertilization are also foreseen in Peru and Brazil (southeast, south, and Minas Gerais); in particular, in Brazil, increases in productivity can be raised by about 40%. The use of double-cropping systems, although with very good results in recent years, may also be at risk in a few decades, mainly due to forecasted precipitation decrease, delay in rainy season onset, and temperature increase. The development of timely early warning systems is imperative to produce technically accurate alerts and the interpretation of the risk assessment based on the link between producers and consumers. Promoting climate index insurance is crucial to build resilient food production, but its implementation should rely on regional or international support systems. Moreover, the implementation of adaptation and mitigation also requires climate-resilient technologies that involve an interdisciplinary approach. Full article

This study examines Cambodian farmers’ demand for weather index insurance (WII), an innovative financial product, for managing climate change-related risks. Rice and cassava farmers in Battambang Province of Cambodia were interviewed to understand their preferences for WII. We applied a binary logistic model to quantify the factors that influence farmers’ WII demand. We discovered that farmers’ marital status and off-farm labor are crucial factors that impact the demand for WII. More importantly, we also investigated gender differences, considering the critical role of women in the agricultural sector and personality differences between men and women. Our findings indicated that for male respondents, being married and having an additional off-farm laborer increase the probability of demand for WII by 72.6% and 36.8%, respectively. For female respondents, the education level is the most significant factor in making purchase decisions. An additional year of education increases the probability of WII demand by 5.0%. Generally, our results are consistent with some prior studies but inconsistent with others. This suggests that further research is necessary to understand the barriers associated with WII schemes and how to overcome them. Regardless, our study provides valuable insights for various stakeholders in implementing WII schemes, including financial professionals, insurance companies, communities, and governments, for designing more flexible WII products, improving farmers’ financial literacy, and providing effective post-event support to enhance farmers’ resilience to climate change. Full article

Regional climate change is affected by global warming, large-scale inter-regional circulation, and land use/cover. As a result of different ecological, economic, and social conditions, climate adaptation actions vary from region to region, including community-based adaptation in small island developing states, enhancing flood resilience in Europe, weather index insurance promotion in Africa, climate change adaptation based on traditional knowledge in the Polar Regions, and global joint decision-making in terms of regional issues of the Ocean. This paper takes the above five typical cases as the research objects, and the multi-case comparative research method is adopted to discuss regional climate change adaptation based on the pressure–state–response framework. It found that: (1) regional climate change adaptation faces significant pressure from cross-regional flows of finance, population, and species under climate change; (2) climate change hotspot maps based on climate change projections show regional climate vulnerability; (3) responses for regional climate change adaptation require active promotion of multi-level governance with horizontal and vertical cooperation. In the future, regional climate change adaptation should focus on inter-regional climate justice and equality, regional climate change adaptation pathways optimization, and how to effectively learn from typical regional climate adaptation cases. Full article

There are several index insurance methodologies. Most of them rely on linear piece-wise methods. Recently, there has been studies promoting the potential of data-driven methodologies in construction index insurance models due to their ability to capture intricate non-linear structures. However, these types of frameworks have mainly been implemented in high-income countries due to the large amounts of data and high-frequency requirements. This paper adapts a data-driven methodology based on high-frequency satellite-based climate indices to explain flood risk and agricultural losses in the Antioquia area (Colombia). We used flood records as a proxy of crop losses, while satellite data comprises run-off, soil moisture, and precipitation variables. We analyse the period between 3 June 2000 and 31 December 2021. We used a logistic regression model as a reference point to assess the performance of a deep neural network. The results show that a neural network performs better than traditional logistic regression models for the available loss event data on the selected performance metrics. Additionally, we obtained a utility measure to derive the costs associated for both parts involved including the policyholder and the insurance provider. When using neural networks, costs associated with the policyholder are lower for the majority of the range of cut-off values. This approach contributes to the future construction of weather insurance indexes for the region where a decrease in the base risk would be expected, thus, resulting in a reduction in insurance costs. Full article

This article presents a novel methodology to assess the financial risk to crops in highly weather-volatile regions. We use data-driven methodologies that use singular value decomposition techniques in a low-income economy. The risk measure is first derived by applying data-driven frameworks, a Principal Component Analysis (PCA), and Singular Spectrum Analysis (SSA) to productive coffee crops in Colombia (163 weather stations) during 2010–2019. The objective is to understand the future implications that index insurance tools will have on strategic economic crops in the country. The first stage includes the identification of the PCA components at the country level. The risk measure, payouts-in-exceedance ratio, or POER, is derived from an analysis of the most volatile-weather-producing regions. It is obtained from a linear index insurance model applied to the extracted singular-decomposed tendencies through SSA on first-component data. The financial risk measure due to weather volatilities serves to predict the future implications of the payouts-in-exceedance in both seasons—wet and dry. The results show that the first PCA component contributes to forty percent of the total variance. The seasonal forecast analysis for the next 24 months shows increasing additional payouts (PO), especially during the wet season. This is caused by the increasing average precipitation tendency component with POERs of 18 and 60 percent in the first and second years. The findings provide important insights into designing agricultural hedging insurance instruments in low-income economies that are reliant on the export of strategic crops, as is the case of Colombian coffee. Full article

Global climate change has posed serious threats to agricultural production. Reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and ensuring food security are considered the greatest challenges in this century. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is a concept that can provide a solution to the challenges that agricultural development faces. It can do so in a sustainable way by increasing adaptability, decreasing GHG emissions, and ensuring national food security. So far, little research has systematically reviewed the progresses in CSA in developing and in developed countries. A review on the recent advancements, challenges, and future directions of CSA will be quite timely and valuable. In this paper, the definition and development goals of CSA are identified. Then, the recent advancements of CSA in developing and in developed countries are reviewed. The existing problems and challenges in CSA are analyzed and pointed out. Finally, the proposals on prospects and directions for CSA in the future are proposed. Using advanced internet technology to ensure agricultural information security, improvement of cropping patterns, and management techniques, carrying out “internet + weather” service and improving the quality of agricultural service, and conducting agricultural weather index-based insurance are considered as the main direction of future development of CSA. This review provides new ideas and strategies for strengthening ecological environmental protection, promoting agricultural green development, and mitigating climate change. Full article

This study examines Cambodian rice farmers’ willingness to pay for the weather-indexed insurance (WII) proposed to manage the financial impact of shifting monsoon rainfall patterns in Battambang Province in north-western Cambodia. Detailed interviews are conducted in the districts of Bavel and Thma Koul. We first analyse farmer respondents’ socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, climate change perceptions and experience, risk attitudes, and awareness of insurance. The binary logistic model is used to identify factors that significantly impact farmers’ willingness to pay (WTP) for WII. Our results show that farmers in general had lower awareness of how to use innovative financial products to adapt to extreme weather. The results also demonstrate that farmer respondents’ marital status, the number of off-farm labourers, and the farm size have a positive effect, whereas the number of children in the household has a negative effect on farmers’ WTP for WII. Specifically, being married, an increase of one off-farm labourer, and an increase of one hectare (ha) of farmland increase the probability of demand for WII by 38.6%, 21.4%, and 5.1%, respectively. In contrast, an increase of one child reduces the probability of WII demand by 9.7%. We also identify challenges confronted by Cambodian farmers for participating in the proposed WII scheme and provide relevant recommendations to overcome these challenges. Full article

Rice is a major staple food grain for more than half of the world’s population, and China is the largest rice producer and consumer in the world. In a climate-warming context, the frequency, duration and intensity of heat waves tend to increase, and rice production will be exposed to higher heat damage risks. Understanding the negative impacts of climate change on the rice supply is a critical issue. In this study, a new perspective on agricultural weather index insurance is proposed to investigate the impact of extreme high-temperature events on rice production in South China in the context of climate change. Based on data from meteorological stations in Anhui Province in China from 1961 to 2018 and the projected data from five Global Climate Models under three representative concentration pathway (RCP) scenarios from 2021 to 2099, the spatial–temporal characteristics of heat stress and its influence on rice production were analyzed by employing a weather index insurance model. The interdecadal breakpoints in the trends of the heat stress weather insurance index (HSWI) and the payout from 1961 to 2018 in 1987 were both determined, which are consistent with the more significant global warming since the 1980s. The largest increase after 1987 was found in the southeastern part of the study area. The projected HSWI and the payout increased significantly from 2021 to 2099, and their growth was faster with higher radiative forcing levels. The HSWI values were on average 1.4 times, 3.3 times and 6.1 times higher and the payouts were on average 3.9 times, 9.8 times and 15.0 times higher than the reference values for the near future, mid-future and far future, respectively. The results suggest that a more severe influence of heat damage on rice production will probably happen in the future, and it is vital to develop relevant adaptation strategies for the effects of a warmer climate and heat stress on rice production. This paper provides an alternative way to transform the evaluation of the extreme climate event index into the quantitative estimation of disaster impacts on crop production. Full article

A land market is emerging in Tanzania, triggered by initiatives to reform land legislation and modernize agriculture through frugal innovations, combining hybrid seeds and weather-based index insurance with the use of mobile telephones. The analysis shows that agricultural modernization can be a driver for an emerging land market. Demand for land increases and because of the liberalization of land rights, land can be bought or leased, something the more successful farmers do. To assess the effects of crop insurance for maize farmers, a frugal innovation, a survey has been carried out in three regions. Two hundred farmers were interviewed using cluster sampling with the villages as sampling units and then selecting households per village. The rural transformation process, driven by innovation, started with the development of an ecosystem and land registration while allowing more private (commercial and non-commercial) initiatives. The triggers are frugal innovations. Crop insurance, combining existing hybrid seeds, with satellite images and mobile telephones, brings about a transformation process and pumps money into the land system. People noticing that hybrid maize works, if you have hybrid seeds, the complementary inputs, and an insurance policy, jump on the band wagon, which leads to more demand for land and contributes to an emerging land market. Full article