Search Results (513)

Population growth is increasing food demand, while watershed food systems face intense pressure from land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. Therefore, this study aimed to identify the critical threshold for food sufficiency in the Cimanuk Watershed. The methods used include dynamic analysis and prediction of LULC changes in line with four scenarios using Support Vector Machine (SVM)–Markov model, ecosystem service-based food production modeling through Crop Production module in Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) model, food demand estimation based on population projections, and calculation of Food Sufficiency Index (FSI) to identify the critical threshold at which the food system shifts from surplus to deficit. The results showed that paddy rice production is projected to continue meeting food demand across all scenarios through 2042. However, food demand is expected to increase as the population grows, specifically in the Accelerated Population Growth (APGS) scenario. FSI analysis indicated that the Cimanuk Watershed remained in food surplus (FSI > 1) up to 2042. The watershed may transition to a food-deficit condition after 2062 in the absence of intervention measures. Therefore, this study recommends protecting productive paddy fields, conserving forests, and managing population growth to maintain long-term food sufficiency. Full article

Given the scarcity of initiatives to charge for urban stormwater services in Brazil and the need to recognise users’ efforts in adopting technologies such as Low Impact Development (LID), a proposal was developed for a stormwater drainage fee and incentives for environmental services in a Brazilian municipality, based on flows retained by LIDs, specifically infiltration wells. To this end, simulations were carried out using the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) for a 0.5 km² area in a Brazilian city that does not yet implement such charges. Based on the identification of the total flow retained by users within the watershed, the avoided cost to the drainage system was estimated. The charging model was defined using the avoided cost method associated with the Simplified Equivalent Residential Unit (SERU). In the baseline scenario that allocates the operation and maintenance cost, the estimated annual fee was USD 17.22 per household without LID and USD 14.64 per household with LID, and the SERU area was 371.11 m², used as a property-area reference; in an incentive scenario designed to reduce the user payback period to approximately 10 years, the fee for households without LID was set at USD 73.78. An economic incentive policy was identified, consisting of fee discounts upon adoption of LIDs, as well as support for their installation and maintenance. Thus, it was validated that combining a drainage fee with economic incentives is both feasible and motivating for both system users and managers. Full article

Assessing ecosystem services, identifying their driving factors, and optimizing their spatial patterns are essential for coordinating ecological conservation and socioeconomic development in mountainous regions. Taking the Anning River Basin in southwestern China as the study area, this study quantitatively assessed ecosystem services from 2010 to 2024, integrated trade-off intensity into the Integrated Ecosystem Services Index, applied a Bayesian network model to identify the driving factors of ecosystem services, and proposed strategies for spatial pattern optimization. The results showed that: (1) the mean values of water conservation and soil conservation in the Anning River Basin were 94.45 mm and 1179.64 t ha⁻¹, respectively, both showing substantial interannual fluctuations. The habitat quality index was 0.83, and the mean carbon storage was 132.68 t ha⁻¹; both habitat quality and carbon storage declined slightly. The mean food production was 0.46 t ha⁻¹, indicating an improvement in the food production function. (2) The trade-off intensity among ecosystem services was 0.33, and the Integrated Ecosystem Services Index was 0.51, remaining generally stable overall. Ecosystem services were mainly influenced by land use, precipitation, population count, and fractional vegetation cover. Their spatial heterogeneity was pronounced, with relatively low values in the Anning River Plain, the Jinsha River dry-hot valley, and the Yanyuan Basin. (3) The identified priority conservation areas for ecosystem services covered 8307 km² and were mainly distributed within ecological conservation redline areas and regulated zones. The general functional areas for ecosystem services covered 149 km² and were concentrated in urban construction areas and along major transportation corridors in the basin. Targeted strategies were further proposed to enhance the synergistic improvement of ecosystem service supply. This study provides theoretical and practical support for ecosystem management in the Anning River Basin and other mountainous watersheds. Full article

Land-use and land-cover (LULC) change is a major driver of ecosystem degradation and ecosystem service loss in tropical landscapes. This study assessed the impacts of LULC changes between 1985 and 2023 on the potential of different LULC classes to supply ecosystem services in the Upper Rio Pardo Basin (Rio Pardo and Rio São João do Paraíso watersheds), northern Minas Gerais, Brazil. LULC data from the MapBiomas Project were used to quantify transitions among LULC classes within the study area. The potential supply of ecosystem services was assessed using the Burkhard matrix, adapted to local environmental conditions and informed by expert knowledge, while the relative importance of ecosystem services was evaluated through a participatory assessment involving local communities. The expansion of pasturelands and commercial forest plantations was identified as the primary driver of ecosystem service loss in the study region. Native ecosystems showed the highest potential to provide regulating, supporting, provisioning, and cultural ecosystem services, particularly water regulation, soil protection, carbon sequestration, and biodiversity conservation. In contrast, anthropogenic land uses were primarily associated with provisioning services and showed limited capacity to sustain regulating and supporting services, indicating clear trade-offs between production and ecosystem functioning. Local communities identified water-related services as the highest priority, followed by climate regulation, soil fertility, and food provision. These findings demonstrate the value of integrating expert-based and participatory approaches to ecosystem service assessment and provide a basis for territorial planning strategies that prioritize the conservation and restoration of native vegetation, particularly in hydrologically sensitive areas. Full article

Accurately understanding the scale dependence of complex interactions among ecosystem services and their driving mechanisms is of great significance for regional ecosystem management. However, existing research has insufficiently addressed the scale sensitivity of ecosystem services interactions and their underlying driving mechanisms, particularly in ecologically critical mountainous regions. This study focused on the Qinling–Daba Mountains in Shaanxi Province and examined three key water-related ecosystem services. The InVEST model was employed to assess water yield, water purification, and soil conservation services across three spatial scales—5 km × 5 km grid, sub-watershed, and county—over the period 2002–2022. Pearson correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression were applied to quantify trade-off and synergies relationships at each scale, and the Geodetector method was used to systematically analyze their multi-scale driving mechanisms. The main findings were as follows: (1) All three ecosystem services exhibited significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity across scales. Water yield showed an overall increasing trend, rising from 230.25 mm in 2002 to 333.64 mm in 2022; water purification declined persistently, decreasing from 0.38 kg/ha to 0.30 kg/ha; and soil conservation increased substantially, from 78.59 t/ha to 99.85 t/ha, with the spatial patterns of each service varying markedly across scales. (2) Ecosystem services interactions demonstrated strong temporal stability but significant spatial scale dependence. The synergies between water yield and water purification weakened monotonically with increasing scale, whereas both the intensity of synergies between water yield and soil conservation and the trade-offs intensity between water purification and soil conservation strengthened progressively with coarsening scale. (3) Both the number and the explanatory power of significant driving factors and their interactions increased systematically with coarsening scale. Land use factors (FLP, CLP) were dominant at grid scale, while the importance of climatic factors (PRE) and socioeconomic factors (GDP, POP) increased progressively from the sub-watershed to the county scale. Interaction types underwent three-stage scale-dependent transitions: two-factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement coexisted at the grid scale; nonlinear enhancement became overwhelmingly dominant at the sub-watershed scale; and enhancement and weakening types coexisted at the county scale, producing a heterogeneous interaction structure. These findings reveal that the direction, intensity, and driving mechanisms of ecosystem services interactions are inherently scale-dependent. These conclusions methodologically demonstrate the necessity of multi-scale analytical frameworks and provide important scientific foundations for developing scale-matched, spatially differentiated ecological management strategies. Full article

Understanding how land change affects water yield is essential for sustainable land management and water security. However, previous studies often rely on a single model or spatial scale, limiting their ability to capture fine-scale land-surface heterogeneity and basin-integrated hydrological processes; consequently, cross-scale consistency in water-yield patterns and drivers remains unresolved. This study developed a dual-spatial-scale framework for the Upper Yangtze River Basin. The Patch-generating Land-Use Simulation (PLUS) model projected land patterns for 2030, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs Annual Water Yield (InVEST-AWY) model mapped grid-scale water yield, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model simulated sub-basin hydrological responses, and Geodetector identified dominant drivers. Their integration links local land transitions with basin-scale hydrological consequences under consistent scenarios, thereby overcoming the limitations of single-model assessments. Results showed that high water-yield areas were concentrated in the eastern and central basin, while the two scales exhibited similar spatial patterns but locally different magnitudes and trends. Built-up land under urban development was 7.96% greater than under ecological protection. Climatic variability increased runoff by 2115.33 m³/s under ecological protection, while precipitation dominated water-yield variation, with explanatory powers of 0.81 and 0.67 at the grid and sub-basin scales, respectively. These findings advance understanding of scale-dependent responses and support land optimization and watershed planning. Full article

Urban–rural public facility disparity is a systemic challenge that reflects dysfunctional feedback loops within and across social and technical subsystems. Traditional administrative-unit-based analyses cannot capture such systemic alignments. This study applies the marker-controlled watershed segmentation (MWS) algorithm, the Two-Step Floating Catchment Area (2SFCA) method, and spatial clustering methods sequentially to dynamically separate urban from rural areas and assess the urban–rural disparity in public facility provisions within the Chengdu–Chongqing economic circle (CCEC). The results indicate: (1) The distribution of public facilities in the CCEC is characterized by significant spatial inequity, predominantly manifested as a substantial disparity between urban and rural areas. (2) A significant misalignment exists between the supply of public facilities and the demands of vulnerable groups. Rural residents, low-income groups, and elderly people are at a disadvantage in accessing public facilities. (3) Rural residents are concentrated in low-income areas and have the most limited ability to obtain public facility services and resources, especially in terms of healthcare facilities. By replacing predefined administrative boundaries with image-derived functional urban–rural patches, the proposed framework enables a more spatially realistic assessment of urban–rural public facility disparities. This approach provides a transferable tool for system-level decision-making in regional planning, particularly for targeting resource allocation in underserved areas. Full article

Tropical riparian ecosystems are among the most threatened biomes on Earth, yet decade-scale, spatially explicit documentation of vegetation loss and landscape fragmentation in community-based ecotourism corridors remains scarce. This study investigates whether agricultural intensification associated with ecotourism development has driven measurable vegetation decline and landscape fragmentation in the Ledok Amprong riparian corridor (Poncokusumo District, Malang Regency, East Java; 8.21 ha, 800–900 m a.s.l.), a mixed-canopy riparian system dominated by Ficus benjamina, Albizia chinensis, and bamboo (Phyllostachys spp.) interspersed with smallholder coffee (Coffea canephora) agroforestry, over the period 2015–2024. We applied multi-temporal Sentinel-2 (10 m) imagery, NDVI analysis, supervised Maximum-Likelihood classification (Overall Accuracy: 89.75%, Kappa: 0.86), and FRAGSTATS-derived landscape metrics to quantify vegetation dynamics and land cover transition. Results show that agricultural land expanded by 157.51% (1.14 to 2.93 ha), while vegetation cover declined by 28.45% (6.27 to 4.49 ha). A strong negative correlation between agricultural expansion and vegetation loss (r = −0.96, p < 0.001) confirmed agriculture as the primary driver of ecosystem degradation. Landscape fragmentation intensified markedly: patch density increased by 49.6%, the connectivity index declined by 23.5%, and the fragmentation index increased by 54.3%. These findings establish the first quantitative, decade-scale spatiotemporal baseline for this ecotourism corridor and demonstrate that community-based ecotourism development, without adequate spatial governance, accelerates rather than mitigates riparian degradation—a paradox with broad implications for tropical riparian conservation governance worldwide. Evidence-based management recommendations include 10–30 m dynamic buffer zones, a 2.5 ha targeted restoration programme, and a Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) mechanism, offering a transferable framework for sustainable riparian ecotourism management across rapidly urbanizing tropical watersheds. Full article

The middle reaches of the Yellow River Basin are ecologically fragile and face increasing tension between ecological restoration and socioeconomic development. This study developed an integrated risk-service framework to assess spatiotemporal ecological security, identify dominant drivers, and support zoning-based management. A Comprehensive Ecological Security Index combining landscape ecological risk with four InVEST-derived ecosystem services showed a steady improvement from 2000 to 2025, especially after 2010. Higher ecological security was mainly concentrated in the southern and southeastern mountainous areas, whereas lower values persisted in the central plains and northern semi-arid areas. The index showed significant positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran’s I = 0.413–0.474, p < 0.001). Forest coverage was the strongest driver (q = 0.504), with a threshold effect at 40–50% coverage. ${\mathrm{P}\mathrm{M}}_{2.5}$ concentration and population density had negative effects, and most driver interactions showed nonlinear enhancement. Five ecological security zones were identified for differentiated management. The proposed framework links ecological risk, ecosystem service capacity, interpretable machine learning, and zoning-based governance. It provides a transferable approach for ecological security assessment and spatial management in the Middle Yellow River Basin and comparable dryland watersheds. Full article

Human activity intensity has become an increasingly significant driver of changes in ecosystem services, and understanding their spatiotemporal relationships is essential for watershed ecological governance. Taking the Taihu Lake Basin as the study area, this research utilizes multi-source geospatial data from 2003 to 2023. The InVEST model is employed to assess four key ecosystem services: water yield, soil conservation, carbon storage, and habitat quality. A human activity intensity (HAI) index is constructed using the entropy-weight method, while bivariate spatial autocorrelation and geographically weighted regression are applied to disentangle the spatiotemporal evolution, spatial associations, and local variations in the associations between HAI and ecosystem services. The results indicate that (1) HAI has continuously intensified, with high-intensity areas undergoing an approximately 9.5-fold expansion and exhibiting a distinct “high in the east, low in the west” pattern; (2) carbon storage and habitat quality show persistent declines, whereas water yield and soil conservation exhibit fluctuating upward trends, with an overall “high in the southwest, low in the northeast” distribution; (3) HAI is significantly positively correlated with water yield and negatively correlated with carbon storage, soil conservation, and habitat quality, with 2018 identified as a critical turning point; and (4) the associations exhibit notable spatial non-stationarity, with the proportion of significant grid cells following a hierarchical order of habitat quality > water yield > carbon storage > soil conservation. Zones with strong regression coefficients occur only as localized patches, while the majority of the basin is characterized by low-to-moderate driving intensity. This study further reveals three core mechanisms—land-use path dependence, policy-induced threshold responses, and spatial spillover associations—providing a scientific basis for differentiated ecological management and sustainable development in the Taihu Lake Basin. Full article

Ecological zoning is important for understanding spatial heterogeneity and supporting landscape-level management. However, existing approaches rarely integrate ecosystem service supply with ecological risk, and their underlying nonlinear relationships remain insufficiently explored. This study aims to develop an integrated framework linking ecosystem service value (ESV) and landscape ecological risk (LER) based on a two-dimensional quadrant model. This framework integrates ESV and LER from complementary benefit–risk perspectives, advancing ecological zoning beyond single-indicator approaches. Using the Miyun Reservoir Basin as a case study, multi-source data from 2000 to 2020 were used to quantify ESV and LER and to examine their spatiotemporal dynamics. The ESV-LER framework was applied to identify ecological functional zones. In addition, the XGBoost-SHAP model combined with the Geographical Detector was used to explore the nonlinear effects and interactions of natural and anthropogenic drivers. ESV showed a “decline-recovery” trend, whereas LER exhibited an opposite “decrease-increase” pattern. Areas with both high ESV and high LER were mainly distributed around the reservoir and river networks, suggesting a spatial mismatch between ecological value and risk. Ecological improvement and conservation zones accounted for approximately 79% of the basin, while ecological risk prevention zones expanded over time, indicating increasing human disturbance. NDVI was identified as a dominant factor with dual effects, enhancing ESV while reducing LER, whereas population density and NPP exhibited nonlinear threshold effects that increased ecological risk. Overall, this study advances ecological zoning by integrating functional value and risk perspectives while explicitly revealing their nonlinear drivers. The proposed framework provides a transferable and interpretable approach for watershed-scale ecological management and supports more targeted and differentiated governance strategies. Full article

Unsustainable land-use transitions in peri-urban watersheds threaten both food security and ecological integrity. While Patch-generating Land Use Simulation (PLUS) and Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Trade-offs (InVEST) models for ecosystem service (ES) assessment are commonly integrated, limited studies have simultaneously (i) accounted for multiple real-world spatial policies (e.g., ecological redlines) as hard constraints, (ii) targeted a comprehensive suite of ESs, and (iii) explicitly pursued synergies without relying on large-scale land conversion. To address these gaps, we developed a spatially explicit framework that integrates the PLUS and InVEST models to simulate four land-use scenarios and assess six ESs—grain yield, water yield, nitrogen export, phosphorus export, soil conservation, and carbon sequestration—in the Yuqiao Reservoir watershed, China, during 1990–2030. Against a backdrop of historical declines in cropland/grassland and key ESs due to construction expansion (1990–2020), the novel Comprehensive Development scenario—implementing slope-adaptive management and riparian buffers—synergistically increases grain yield (+0.55%) and carbon sequestration (+1.10%) while drastically reducing phosphorus export (−10.86%). It demonstrates that synergistic gains can arise from strategic spatial reconfiguration within a stable land-use area, advancing a paradigm from area-centric to configuration-centric optimization. This provides a quantifiable methodological basis and actionable policy reference for land spatial optimization in similar water-source watersheds. Full article

Agricultural watersheds must simultaneously support multiple Ecosystem Services (ESs), yet the coordination between Ecosystem Service Value (ESV) growth and synergies of ESs remains poorly understood. Taking the Liaohe River mainstream Basin (LRMB), a typical agricultural watershed, as a case, this study investigates the spatiotemporal dynamics of ESV and trade-offs among ESs, along with their driving factors. Five key ESs—Food Production (FP), Water Conservation (WC), Water Purification (WP), Soil Conservation (SC), and Landscape Aesthetics (LA)—were selected. The InVEST model, Function-based Valuation Method, Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD), and Coupling Coordination Degree (CCD) were comprehensively applied to assess the spatiotemporal variations in ESV, trade-off intensity, and their coupling coordination degree in the watershed from 2000 to 2023. Furthermore, the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector (OPGD) and Multiscale Geographically Weighted Regression with Spatial Auto-correlation (MGWR-SAR) were employed to explore the driving mechanisms underlying changes in ESV and trade-off intensity, and to identify the major driving factors and their spatial heterogeneity. The results reveal the following: (1) From 2000 to 2023, total ESV in the LRMB increased by 69.5% from 77.66 to 131.59 billion yuan, with WC and FP accounting for 42.8% and 41.9% of this growth. Spatially, ESV shifted from a west-to-east increasing gradient to a U-shaped pattern, with high values concentrated in mountainous areas and low values along the mainstream. (2) Mean trade-off intensity remained stable at approximately 0.29, yet exhibited pronounced spatial polarisation. High trade-off zones shifted from the southwestern estuary toward the mainstream corridor, driven primarily by intensifying conflicts between FP and other ESs. (3) Despite a stable watershed-average CCD of 0.71–0.73, the CCD along the Liaohe River mainstream declined by over 15%, forming a corridor of coordination decay and revealing that ESV growth occurs at the expense of internal synergy. (4) Nonlinear interactions dominated ES dynamics, with the interaction of precipitation and human disturbance intensity exhibiting the highest explanatory power (q-values of 0.61 for ESV and 0.58 for RMSD). (5) Natural climatic factors (precipitation, temperature) predominantly enhanced synergy in mountainous areas, whereas human and landscape factors (human disturbance intensity, Shannon’s Diversity Index, PLAND of water) intensified trade-offs along the mainstream and central plains. This study establishes an integrated “ESV–trade-off–CCD” diagnostic framework and proposes a differentiated management strategy, offering a potentially transferable paradigm for sustainable governance in agricultural watersheds. Full article

The Wei River Basin (WRB) faces challenges including flood threats, ecological fragility, and uneven socio-economic development. However, existing ecosystem service supply–demand (ESSD) studies rarely incorporate flood-sediment transport as a core service, and systematic studies on revealing the multi-scale spatial heterogeneity and driving mechanism of ESSD coupling coordination remain insufficient. Therefore, this paper analyzed the ESSD across flood-sediment transport, eco-environmental, and socio-economic subsystems for the period 2005–2023 at three spatial scales (municipal, watershed, and county). A multi-scale comprehensive index of ESSD was constructed. Using the dynamic local and tele-coupling coordination degree (DLTCCD) model and spatial Markov model, we quantitatively assessed dynamic trade-offs and transition patterns of the DLTCCD in ESSD. The XGBoost-SHAP model and structural equation model were employed to explore the internal mechanisms through which key factors influence the DLTCCD. A zoning management mechanism was proposed by integrating the four-quadrant static model and DLTCCD change rate. The results showed the following: (1) ESSD exhibited a spatial pattern of “lower in the north and higher in the south,” with imbalances more evident at the county scale. (2) The DLTCCD showed significant scale dependence, with “spatial club convergence” of high and low levels in the Ziwuling Mountain and Longdong Plain areas. (3) Based on both the XGBoost-SHAP model and the structural equation model, precipitation was identified as the fundamental driving force across scales, exerting influence through interactive effects and a dual mediating path. (4) Zoning identification revealed structural challenges for sustainable development, marked by coexistence of coordinated and uncoordinated development zones. This study identifies the northern Loess Plateau, Qinling northern foothills, and Guanzhong Plain as key zones, proposes a “zoning-based graded intervention” strategy, and provides scientific support for ESSD management in the WRB. Full article

Urban river networks face significant ecological challenges due to intensive urbanization. Traditional assessment methods focus mainly on individual rivers and overlook cross-scale connections. To fill this research gap, the study refined the Urban Riverscape Conditions-based Assessment for Management Needs (URBAN) framework and developed a dual-scale assessment system covering the entire river network and individual rivers. It evaluates hydrology, geomorphology, ecology, and the waterfront public service dimension. Taking the Qingxi area of Shanghai as a case study, this study integrated multi-source data and adopted field investigations, the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and principal component analysis (PCA) to collect field data, calculate indicator weights, and extract dominant functional factors. The results show that the overall comprehensive health score of the study area is 59.39, classified as average; the river network scale scores 58.34, and the 21 monitored rivers achieve an average score of 61.80. The assessment identifies clear advantages in hydrological and geomorphological conditions, whereas waterfront public services and river morphological diversity are still deficient. Overall, this system demonstrates good operability and scientific validity, providing practical technical approaches for sustainable urban river network management and supporting refined watershed governance. Full article