Search Results (7)

By constructing a correlation network between global sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) and summer precipitation anomalies in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau, key SST regions influencing summer precipitation anomalies in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau were selected. It was found that spring SSTAs in the Bay of Bengal, southwestern Atlantic, and eastern Pacific are crucial for influencing summer precipitation anomalies in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau. Setting SSTAs from these three regions as predictor variables 3 months in advance, we constructed multiple linear regression (MLR), ridge regression (RR), and lasso regression (LR) models to predict summer precipitation anomalies over the Yunnan–Guizhou region. The training phase involved data spanning from 1961 to 2005, which aimed to predict precipitation anomalies in the Yunnan–Guizhou Plateau for the period extending from 2006 to 2022. Based on MLR, RR, and LR models, the correlations between predicted values and observed summer precipitation anomalies in Yunnan–Guizhou were 0.48, 0.46, and 0.46, respectively. These values were all higher than the correlation coefficients of the NCC_CSM model’s predicted and observed values. Additionally, its performance in predicting summer precipitation anomalies over the Yunnan–Guizhou region, based on key SST regions, was assessed using performance metrics such as anomaly correlation coefficient (ACC), anomaly sign consistency rate (PC), and trend anomaly comprehensive score (PS score). The average ACC of MLR, RR, and LR models was higher than that of the NCC_CSM model’s predictions. For MLR, RR, LR, and NCC_CSM models, the PCs exceeding 50% of the year were 14, 14, 11, and 10, respectively. Furthermore, the average PS score for predicting summer precipitation anomalies over the Yunnan–Guizhou region using MLR, RR, and LR was approximately 73 points; 8 higher than the average PS score of the NCC_CSM model. Therefore, predicting summer precipitation anomalies over the Yunnan–Guizhou region based on key SST regions is of great significance for improving the prediction skills of precipitation anomalies in this region. Full article

This study investigated the convective weather features, precipitation microphysical characteristics, and water vapour transport characteristics associated with a southwest vortex precipitation event that occurred on the eastern edge of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, coinciding with a southwest vortex event, from 15 to 16 July 2021, using conventional observations of raindrop spectra, ERA5 reanalysis data, CMORPH precipitation data, and the HYSPLIT_v4 backward trajectory model. The findings aim to provide theoretical insights for improving the forecasting and numerical simulations of southwest vortex precipitation events. The findings revealed that the precipitation event induced by the southwestern vortex at Emeishan Station on 15–16 July 2021 was characterised by high rainfall intensity and significant precipitation accumulation. The raindrop spectrum exhibited a broad distribution with a notable bimodal structure. Both the Sichuan Basin and the Tibetan Plateau were dominated by the South Asian high pressure at higher altitudes, while a pronounced low-pressure system developed at mid and low altitudes within the basin, establishing a meteorological context marked by upper-level divergence and lower-level convergence. Throughout the event, notable vertical uplift velocities were recorded across the Sichuan Basin and Tibetan Plateau, along with distinct positive vorticity zones in the lower and middle strata of the Sichuan Basin, indicating that the atmosphere was in a state of thermal instability. The majority of moisture was in the mid and lower troposphere with evident convergence movements, which played a crucial role in the southwest vortex’s development. WRF numerical simulations of the Emeishan precipitation event more accurately modelled the weather conditions for this precipitation but tended to overestimate the level of precipitation. It was observed that the region around Emei Mountain primarily received moisture influx from the southern Bay of Bengal and the South China Sea, with moisture transport chiefly originating from the Sichuan Basin and in a south-westward trajectory. Full article

To improve understanding of the characteristics of extreme summer rainfall and its water vapor transport in the eastern part of southwestern China (ESWC), this study analyzed data on daily precipitation from 118 meteorological stations in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020, as well as daily reanalysis data from ERA5 and daily reanalysis data from NCEP/NCAR. The study employed polynomial fitting, correlation, regression, clustering, and mixed single-particle Lagrangian trajectory (HYSPLITv5.0) modeling methods to simulate extreme summer precipitation and its water vapor transport characteristics in the ESWC and its possible formation mechanism. The results show that: (1) The contribution rate of extreme precipitation in the ESWC from 1979 to 2020 varied significantly on the interannual time scale. When the number of extreme precipitation days is high (low), the contribution rate of extreme precipitation is also high (low), while the contribution rate of general precipitation (the percentage of the sum of general precipitation to the total summer precipitation of that year) is often low (high). (2) When extreme precipitation occurs in the ESWC, compared with general precipitation, the high-level potential vortices are stronger, and the cold air from higher latitude is more likely to move southward. Meanwhile, the amount of water vapor input to the region is significantly larger than that of general precipitation. (3) There are four channels of water vapor sources in the ESWC during the period of extreme precipitation: the Bay of Bengal, the Arabian Sea, the western Pacific, and the northwest. The contribution of water vapor from the Bay of Bengal is the highest. The number of extreme summer precipitation days in the ESWC is significantly negatively correlated with the water vapor budget of the eastern boundary and positively correlated with Indian Ocean Basin-Wide (IOBW) index in the previous winter. (4) When the winter SST is high in the IOBW mode, it can cause the western Pacific subtropical high and the South Asian high to be stronger and shifted southward in summer, resulting in an increase in the number of extreme precipitation days in the ESWC. Full article

The Sichuan Province, located in Southwest China, is one of China’s main maize-producing areas, and is also an important node along the north-south migratory pathways that pests follow within China. After its invasion, the fall armyworm (FAW), Spodoptera frugiperda (Smith), was found in 70.81% of all counties in Sichuan. However, FAW source areas and their migratory pathways into Sichuan remain unclear. This study simulated FAW sources and their migratory pathways into Sichuan during 2020 and 2021 using the trajectory simulation platform HYSPLIT with flight behavior parameters. Additionally, the seasonal horizontal wind field was also analyzed with the meteorological graphics processing software GrADS. The results showed that sporadic FAW migration into Sichuan began in April. By May, FAWs were found in much of the Sichuan Basin and moved further north and west in June. Except for year-round breeding areas, FAW sources varied monthly and expanded northward and eastward. The source areas were concentrated in Yunnan, Guizhou, Chongqing, and Myanmar on the western pathway of national migration and also in Vietnam, Guangxi, and Hunan of the eastern pathway. At various times, parts of Sichuan have also served as sources for other parts of Sichuan. FAWs migrated to Sichuan from the source areas via 6 potential pathways, 1 pathway into southwest Sichuan and 5 pathways into the Sichuan basin. The southwestern airflow from the Bay of Bengal, the southeastern airflow controlled by the western Pacific subtropical high, and the local topographically influenced airflow could provide the airflow needed for FAW migration. This work provides new information that can assist the monitoring and warning of the presence of FAW and support integrated management strategies for this pest in Sichuan and throughout China. Full article

Multiple upwelling systems develop in the Indian Ocean during the summer monsoon. The Sri Lanka dome (SLD), which occurs in the open ocean off the east coast of Sri Lanka from June to September, is distinct from those near the coast. The SLD is characterized by uplifted thermocline and increased chlorophyll concentration. Mechanisms of the upwelling and its biogeochemical response are not well understood. Here, we explored the dynamics of the chlorophyll and sea-to-air CO₂ flux in the SLD using ocean color and altimetry remote sensing data, together with other reanalysis products. We found that the occurrence of high chlorophyll concentration and sea-to-air CO₂ flux happens along the pathway of the southwest monsoon current (SMC). The annual cycle of chlorophyll in the SLD has a one-month lag relative to that in the southern coast of Sri Lanka. The positive wind stress curl that forms in the SLD during the summer does not fully explain the seasonal chlorophyll maximum. Transport of the SMC, eddy activity, and associated frontal processes also play an important role in regulating the variability in chlorophyll. In the SLD, upwelled subsurface water has excess dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) relative to the conventional Redfield ratio between DIC and nutrients; thus, upwelling and sub-mesoscale processes determine this region to be a net carbon source to the atmosphere. Full article

We use a case study to show that a continuous heavy rainfall process in southern China was closely related to tropical cyclone activity in the Bay of Bengal. The continuous heavy rainfall that occurred in southern China on 11–13 May 2002 can be considered as two different processes. The first process, referred to as a predecessor rain event, occurred over southwestern China before landfall of the tropical cyclone. The second process occurred after dissipation of the tropical cyclone when its remnant caused heavy rainfall that expanded from southwestern China to the middle to lower reaches of the Yangtze–Huaihe river basin. Both of the heavy rainfall processes were closely related to the transport of warm, moist air associated with a tropical cyclone originating over the Bay of Bengal, but the mechanisms in the two processes were quite different. Low-level orographic forcing was the main contributor to the predecessor rain event, whereas baroclinic frontogenesis induced by thermal advection was the main contributor to the tropical cyclone remnant event. Both heavy rainfall events occurred beneath the equatorial entrance of the upper level East Asian subtropical jet. Full article

During the boreal summer from June to August, rainfall in Southwestern China shows substantial interdecadal variabilities on timescales longer than 10 years. Based on observational analyses and numerical modeling, we investigated the characteristics of interdecadal Southwestern China summer rainfall (SWCSR) and its dynamic drivers. We find that the SWCSR is markedly impacted by the interdecadal Indian Ocean basin mode (ID-IOBM) of the sea surface temperature (SST), which may induce anomalous inter-hemispheric vertical circulation. During the cold phase of the ID-IOBM, an enhanced lower-level divergence and upper-level convergence exist over the tropical Indian Ocean. The simultaneous lower-level outflow anomalies further converge over the Indo-China peninsula, resulting in an anomalous ascending motion and a lower-level cyclone that contribute to strengthening the eastward moisture transport from the Bay of Bengal to Southwestern China. The joint effects of the anomalous ascending motion and the above-normal moisture transport play a key role in increasing the SWCSR. In summers during the warm phase of the ID-IOBM, the situation is approximately the same, but with opposite polarity. After the beginning of the 1970s, the impacts of interdecadal Indian Ocean dipole (ID-IOD) on SWCSR is strengthening. The anomalous vertical circulation associated with the positive (negative) phase of ID-IOD is in favor of decreased (increased) rainfall in SWC. However, the impacts of ID-IOD on SWCSR is relatively weak before the 1970s, indicating that the ID-IOD is the secondary driver of the interdecadal variability of SWCSR. Modeling results also indicate that the ID-IOBM of SST anomalies is the main driver of interdecadal variability of SWCSR. Full article