Search Results (18)

With the development of the shipbuilding industry, nonparametric prediction has become the mainstream method for predicting ship maneuvering motion. However, the lack of transparency and interpretability make the output process of the prediction results challenging to track and understand. An interpretable deep learning framework based on the NbeatsX model is presented for nonparametric ship maneuvering motion prediction. Its three-tier fully connected architecture incorporates trend, seasonal, and exogenous constraints to decompose motion data, enhancing temporal and contextual learning while rendering the prediction process transparent. On the KVLCC2 zig-zag maneuver dataset, NbeatsX achieves NRMSEs of 0.01872, 0.01234, and 0.01661 for surge speed, sway speed, and yaw rate, with SMAPEs of 9.21%, 6.40%, and 7.66% and R² values all above 0.995, yielding a more than 20% average error reduction compared with LS-SVM, LSTM, and LSTM–Attention and reducing total training time by about 15%. This method unifies high-fidelity forecasting with transparent decision tracing. It is an effective aid for ship maneuvering, offering more credible support for maritime navigation and safety decision-making, and it has substantial practical application potential. Full article

While navigating at sea, ships are influenced by various factors, including wind, waves, and currents, which can result in heave motion that significantly impacts operations and potentially leads to accidents. Accurate forecasting of ship heaving is essential to guarantee the safety of maritime navigation. Consequently, this paper proposes a hybrid neural network method that combines Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs), Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory Networks (BiLSTMs), and an Attention Mechanism to predict the heaving motion of ships in moderate to complex sea conditions. The data feature extraction ability of CNNs, the temporal analysis capabilities of BiLSTMs, and the dynamic adjustment function of Attention on feature weights were comprehensively utilized to predict a ship’s heave motion. Simulations of a standard container ship’s motion time series under complex sea state conditions were carried out. The model training and validation results indicate that, under sea conditions 4, 5, and 6, the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention method demonstrated significant improvements in MAPE, APE, and RMSE when compared to the traditional LSTM, Attention, and LSTM-Attention methods. The CNN-BiLSTM-Attention method could enhance the accuracy of the prediction. Heave displacement, pitch displacement, pitch velocity, pitch acceleration, and incoming wave height were chosen as key input features. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to optimize the prediction performance of the CNN-BiLSTM-Attention hybrid neural network method, resulting in a significant improvement in MAPE and enhancing the accuracy of ship motion prediction. The research presented in this paper establishes a foundation for future studies on ship motion prediction. Full article

Inland waterways, characterized by their complex, narrow paths, see significantly higher traffic volumes compared to maritime routes, increasing the regulatory demands on traffic management. Predictive modeling of ship traffic flows, utilizing real AIS historical data, enhances route and docking planning for ships and port managers. This approach boosts transportation efficiency and safety in inland waterway navigation. Nevertheless, AIS data are flawed, marred by noise, disjointed paths, anomalies, and inconsistent timing between points. This study introduces a data processing technique to refine AIS data, encompassing segmentation, outlier elimination, missing point interpolation, and uniform interval resampling, aiming to enhance trajectory analysis reliability. Utilizing this refined data processing approach on ship trajectory data yields independent, complete motion profiles with uniform timing. Leveraging the Transformer model, denoted TRFM, this research integrates processed AIS data from the Yangtze River to create a predictive dataset, validating the efficacy of our prediction methodology. A comparative analysis with advanced models such as LSTM and its variants demonstrates TRFM’s superior accuracy, showcasing lower errors in multiple metrics. TRFM’s alignment with actual trajectories underscores its potential for enhancing navigational planning. This validation not only underscores the method’s precision in forecasting ship movements but also its utility in risk management and decision-making, contributing significantly to the advancement in maritime traffic safety and efficiency. Full article

Overtaking situations are commonly encountered in maritime navigation, and the overtaking process involves various risk factors that significantly contribute to collision incidents. It is crucial to conduct research on the maneuvering behaviors and decision-making processes associated with ship overtaking. This paper proposes a method based on the analysis of ship maneuvering performance to investigate overtaking behaviors in navigational channels. A relative motion model is established for both the overtaking and the overtaken vessels, and the inter-vessel distance is calculated, taking into account the psychological perceptions of the ship’s driver. A decision-making model for ship overtaking is presented to provide a safety protocol for overtaking maneuvers. Applying this method to overtaking data from the South Channel shows that it effectively characterizes both the permissible overtaking space and the driver’s overtaking desire. Additionally, it enables the prediction of optimal overtaking timing and strategies based on short-term trajectory forecasts. Thus, this method not only offers a safe overtaking plan for vessels but also provides auxiliary information for decision making in intelligent ship navigation. Full article

This study presents a novel real-time prediction technique for multi-degree-of-freedom ship motion and resting periods utilizing Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks. The primary objective is to enhance the safety and efficiency of shipborne helicopter landings by accurately predicting heave, pitch, and roll data over an 8 s forecast horizon. The proposed method utilizes the LSTM network’s capability to model complex nonlinear time series while employing the User Datagram Protocol (UDP) to ensure efficient data transmission. The model’s performance was validated using real-world ship motion data collected across various sea states, achieving a maximum prediction error of less than 15%. The findings indicate that the LSTM-based model provides reliable predictions of ship resting periods, which are crucial for safe helicopter operations in adverse sea conditions. This method’s capability to provide real-time predictions with minimal computational overhead highlights its potential for broader applications in marine engineering. Future research should explore integrating multi-model fusion techniques to enhance the model’s adaptability to rapidly changing sea conditions and improve the prediction accuracy. Full article

Accurate forecasting of ship motion is of great significance for ensuring maritime operational safety and working efficiency. A data-driven ship motion forecast method is proposed in this paper, aiming at the problems of low generalization of a single forecast model and insufficient forecast accuracy under unknown conditions. First, the fluid dynamics simulations of the ship are carried out under multiple node conditions based on overset mesh technology, and the obtained motion data is used for training the Bidirectional Long Short-term Memory network models. One or more pre-trained forecast models would be selected based on the correlation of condition nodes when forecasting ship motion under non-node conditions. The Golden Jackal Optimization Algorithm is used to compute the regression coefficient of each node model in real time, and finally, the dynamic model average is calculated. The results show that the method proposed in this study can accurately forecast the pitch and heave of the KCS ship in 5 s, 10 s, and 15 s of forecast duration. The accuracy of the multi-order forecast model improves more in longer forecast duration tasks compared with the first-order model. When forecasting ship motion under non-node conditions, the method shows stronger model generalization capabilities. Full article

In this study, a short-term prediction method for ship roll motion in waves based on convolutional neural network (CNN) is presented. Firstly, based on the ship roll motion equation, the data for free roll attenuation motion in still water, roll motion in regular waves, and roll motion excited by irregular waves are simulated, respectively. Secondly, the simulation data is normalized and preprocessed, and then the time-sliding window technique is applied to construct the training and testing sample sets. Thirdly, the CNN model is trained by learning from the constructed training sample sets, and the well-trained CNN model is applied to predict the roll motion. To validate the CNN model’s prediction accuracy and effectiveness, a comparison between the forecasted results and the simulation data is conducted. Meanwhile, the predicted results are also compared with that of the long-short-term memory (LSTM) neural network. The research results demonstrate that CNN can effectively achieve accurate prediction of ship roll motion in waves, and its prediction accuracy is the same as that of the LSTM neural network. Full article

Approximating the positions of vessels near underwater devices, such as unmanned underwater vehicles and autonomous underwater vehicles, is crucial for many underwater operations. However, long-term monitoring of vessel trajectories is challenging due to limitations in underwater communications, posing challenges for the execution of underwater exploration missions. Therefore, trajectory prediction based on AIS data is vital in the fusion of underwater detection information. However, traditional models for underwater vessel trajectory prediction typically work well for only small-scale and short-term predictions. In this paper, a novel deep learning method is proposed that leverages a look-back window to decompose the temporal and motion features of ship movement trajectories, enabling long-term vessel prediction in broader sea areas. This research introduces an innovative model structure that enables trajectory features to be simultaneously learned for a larger range of vessels and facilitates long-term prediction. Through this innovative model design, the proposed model can more accurately predict vessel trajectories, providing reliable and comprehensive forecasting results. Our proposed model outperforms the Nlinear model by a 16% improvement in short-term prediction accuracy and an approximately 8% improvement in long-term prediction accuracy. The model also outperforms the Patch model by 5% in accuracy. In summary, the proposed method can produce competitive predictions for the long-term future trajectory trends of ships in large-scale sea areas. Full article

Efficiently salvaging shipwrecks is of the utmost importance for safeguarding shipping safety and preserving the marine ecosystem. However, traditional methods find it difficult to salvage shipwrecks in deep water. This article presents a novel salvage technology that involves multiple hydraulic claws for directly catching and lifting a 2500-ton shipwreck at 600 m depth. To ensure lifting stability, a semi-active heave compensation (SAHC) system was employed for each lifter to mitigate the effects of sea waves. However, the response delays arising from the hydraulic, control, and filtering systems resist the heave compensation performance. Predicting the barge motion to mitigate measuring and filtering delays and achieve leading compensation is necessary for the salvage. Therefore, a multivariate long short-term memory (LSTM) based neural network was trained to forecast the barge’s heave and pitch motions, exhibiting satisfactory results for the next 5 s. According to the results of numerical simulations, the proposed LSTM-based motion predictive SAHC system demonstrates remarkable effectiveness in compensating for shipwreck motion. Full article

This paper proposes an innovative automatic carrier landing control law for carrier-based aircraft considering complex ship motion and wind environment. Specifically, a strategy is proposed to synthesize preview control with an adaptive nonlinear control scheme. Firstly, incremental nonlinear backstepping control law is adopted in the attitude control loop to enhance the anti-disturbance capability of the aircraft. Secondly, to enhance the glide slope tracking performance under severe sea conditions, the carrier motion is predicted, and the forecasted motion is adopted in an optimal preview control guidance law to compensate influences induced by carrier motion. However, synthesizing the inner-loop and outer-loop control is not that straightforward since the preview control is naturally an optimal control law which requires a state-space model. Therefore, low-order equivalent fitting of the attitude-to-altitude high-order system model needs to be performed; furthermore, a state observer needs to be designed for the low-order equivalent system to supply required states to the landing controller. Finally, to validate the proposed methodology, an unmanned tailless aircraft model is used to perform the automatic landing tasks under variant sea conditions. Results show that the automatic carrier landing system can lead to satisfactory landing precision and success rate even under severe sea conditions. Full article

An approach combining frequency and time domain analysis is introduced in this study for ship motions assessment. The open-source NEMOH code is utilized to compute the excitation forces and the hydrodynamic coefficients, while heave and pitch motions time histories are determined by solving the Cummins equations in the time domain. The study compares the numerical outcomes for the heave, pitch, and vertical acceleration at the center of gravity with data obtained from a smartphone onboard during an oceanographic expedition in the Antarctic Ocean in early 2020 on the “Laura Bassi” research vessel. In order to validate the proposed method, weather forecast data from the global-WAM (GWAM) model are utilized. The comparison reveals a good agreement between numerical results and onboard measurements, with differences in motion values remaining below 10% and accelerations below 15%. Therefore, the developed code, taking into account its future improvements, represents an initial step towards creating a promising tool for an accurate estimation of ship motions and accelerations. Full article

The downburst events have been a research focus for decades, as their associated disastrously strong winds pose a great threat to aviation, the shipping industry, agriculture, and the power industry. On 14 May 2021, a series of severe convection occurred in middle and eastern China, during which six 500-kilovolt transmission line towers in Zhejiang were toppled down by a downburst event, resulting in a large range of power outages. By using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model version 4.4, key features of the downburst event were reproduced reasonably; based on which, we explored the evolutionary mechanisms and the three-dimensional structures of the strong winds associated with the downburst event. It was found that a southwest–northeast-orientated, eastward moving strong squall line was the parent convection system for the downburst event. The downburst-associated convection was deep (from surface to 200 hPa); in the near surface layer, it was mainly associated with positive geopotential height and negative temperature deviations, whereas, at higher levels, it was mainly associated with negative geopotential height and positive temperature deviations. Backward trajectory analysis indicates that the air particles that came from the middle troposphere west of the key region (~61.2% in proportion) were crucial for producing the strong winds of the downburst event. These air particles experienced notable descending processes, during which most of the air particles decreased notably in their potential temperature, while they increased significantly in their specific humidity. The kinetic energy budget analyses denote that, for the region surrounding the location where the tower toppling appeared, the work done by the strong pressure gradient force between the high-pressure closed center (corresponding to intense descending motions) and the low-pressure closed center (corresponding to strong latent heat release) dominated the rapid wind enhancement. Full article

The good performance of the port activities in terminals is mainly conditioned by the dynamic response of the moored ship system at a berth. An adequate definition of the highly multivariate processes involved in the response of a moored ship at a berth is crucial for an appropriate characterization of port operability. The availability of an efficient forecast system of the movements of moored ships is essential for the planning, performance, and safety of the development of port operations. In this paper, an inference model to predict moored ship motions, based on a semi-supervised Machine Learning methodology, is presented. A comparison with different supervised and unsupervised Machine Learning techniques, as well as with existing Deep Learning-based models for predicting moored ship motions, has been performed. The highest performance of the semi-supervised Machine Learning-based model has been obtained. Additionally, the influence of infragravity wave parameters introduced as predictor variables in the model has been analyzed and compared with the typical ocean waves, wind, and sea level as predictor variables. The prediction model has been developed and validated with an available dataset of measured data from field campaigns in the Outer Port of Punta Langosteira (A Coruña, Spain). Full article

Several port authorities are involved in the R+D+i projects for developing port management decision-making tools. We recorded the movements of 46 ships in the Outer Port of Punta Langosteira (A Coruña, Spain) from 2015 until 2020. Using this data, we created neural networks and gradient boosting models that predict the six degrees of freedom of a moored vessel from ocean-meteorological data and ship characteristics. The best models achieve, for the surge, sway, heave, roll, pitch and yaw movements, a 0.99, 0.99, 0.95, 0.99, 0.98 and 0.98 R² in training and have a 0.10 m, 0.11 m, 0.09 m, 0.9°, 0.11° and 0.15° RMSE in testing, all below 10% of the corresponding movement range. Using these models with forecast data for the weather conditions and sea state and the ship characteristics and berthing location, we can predict the ship movements several days in advance. These results are good enough to reliably compare the models’ predictions with the limiting motion criteria for safe working conditions of ship (un) loading operations, helping us decide the best location for operation and when to stop operations more precisely, thus minimizing the economic impact of cargo ships unable to operate. Full article

A parametric wave spectrum resembling procedure is applied to detect the sea state parameters, namely the wave peak period and significant wave height, based on the measurement and analysis of the heave and pitch motions of a vessel in a seaway, recorded by a smartphone located onboard the ship. The measurement system makes it possible to determine the heave and pitch acceleration spectra of the reference ship in the encounter frequency domain and, subsequently, the absolute sea spectra once the ship motion transfer functions are provided. The measurements have been carried out onboard the research ship “Laura Bassi”, during the oceanographic campaign in the Antarctic Ocean carried out in January and February 2020. The resembled sea spectra are compared with the weather forecast data, provided by the global-WAM (GWAM) model, in order to validate the sea spectrum resembling procedure. Full article